The Chicago White Sox Sign Dallas Keuchel. What Move Should Be Next?

By: Chris Larson

Over the span of the last few years, the Chicago Cubs have dominated baseball in the Windy City of Chicago, but it seems as though things could be changing. So far this offseason, the Chicago White Sox have been one of the most aggressive teams across the league and have done enough to certainly change the landscape within the American League Central as well as the American League in general.

With their eyes set on potentially clinching a surprise playoff birth next season, the Chicago White Sox have developed a good balance of veteran leadership with plenty of promising young players. As is the case with any rebuilding team, the past few seasons have been primarily focused around trading off major league pieces for prospects in return and many of those prospects are starting to reach the big league or Triple-A level. Regardless, it's part of what has made the White Sox have such a highly regarded farm system over that period of time and why there's so much optimism on the south side of Chicago.

Just tonight, the White Sox signed free agent left-hander, Dallas Keuchel to a reported three-year, $55.5 million dollar deal that includes a fourth year vesting option that can make the total of the deal ($74) million dollars. Based on those teams, the total AAV of ($18.5) million dollars each of the four seasons which likely represents the market value for a starting pitcher within his class at the moment. That starting pitcher is left-hander, Hyun-Jin Ryu who is still a free agent and looking for a deal.

The primary reason why the Chicago White Sox decided to sign Dallas Keuchel is because of his ability to eat innings and be that workhorse that the White Sox have been missing since they traded Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox before the 2017 regular season. As recent as the 2018 regular season, Dallas Keuchel pitched a total of (204.2) innings, while recording a total of (153) strikeouts and a (1.31) WHIP. Ever since winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2015, Keuchel has regressed in some regard based on certain metrics such as his Fielding Independent Percentage (FIP) which was (2.91) at the end of the 2015 regular season and has been above (3.50) every season since.

Regardless, Dallas Keuchel is still only 31-years old and could have some more left in the tank to provide some significant value to the Chicago White Sox over the span of the deal. Furthermore, Keuchel is aware of what it takes to pitch in the American League from his tenure with the Houston Astros and he helps to balance out the White Sox starting rotation, along with fellow left-hander Gio Gonzalez, which is an added bonus for a team that was projected to have an all right-handed rotation prior to both of those signings.

Speaking of left-handed starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez, he came to terms with the Chicago White Sox this past Thursday and the deal was officially announced by the team on Friday. Gonzalez and the White Sox agreed to a one-year, $4.25 million dollar deal which includes a ($7) million dollar option or a ($500,000) buyout for the 2021 regular season. Gonzalez, who doesn't have the same stardom as Dallas Keuchel, is another reputable addition to the Chicago White Sox and someone that has an interesting mix of pitch mechanics that can deceive hitters when he takes the mound.

Last season with the Milwaukee Brewers, Gonzalez recorded a 3.50 ERA over the span of 87.1 innings of work with a (4.04) FIP and a strikeouts-per-9 rate of (8.04). In addition, during that span Gonzalez recorded a (.277) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.231). As is the case with Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez is another durable option for the White Sox and someone that can be counted on to make his starts every fifth day. Gonzalez has been very healthy overall and that's exactly what the White Sox need as their starting rotation continues to emerge itself.

As things look right now, the Chicago White Sox starting rotation will likely consist of Dallas Keuchel, Lucas Giolito, and Gio Gonzalez as the top three starters. Giolito had a very nice season last year and looks like he is on the verge of having a breakout year heading into 2020. In addition to those three starters, the Chicago White Sox also possess right-hander, Dylan Cease who has front-of-the-rotation potential along with right-hander, Michael Kopech who will be coming back from Tommy John and Reynaldo Lopez who is a great option to have at the back end. From a starting pitching standpoint, it seems as though the White Sox are good to go and don't have anymore work to do from that end.

Of course, if the team wanted to get greedy and try to get a frontline starting pitcher such as Noah Syndergaard of the New York Mets or reunite with fellow left-hander, Chris Sale of the Boston Red Sox, the team has enough prospect capital to do so, but it seems very unlikely that either of those individuals would be traded to the Southside. However, depending on how the first part of the 2020 regular season goes for the White Sox, they could very easily be in the market for a frontline guy prior to next year's July 31st Trade Deadline and have plenty of capital to deal from which will certainly cause for a lot of excitement on the Southside.

Besides adding left-handers Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez to the mix, another significant move the team made this offseason was the signing of free agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal. Grandal and the White Sox agreed to a four-year, $73 million dollar deal. Heading into this offseason, the Chicago White Sox needed to make an upgrade at the catching position and Grandal is the perfect guy to pair with James McCann behind the dish. What added intrigue to this particular signing is that it was the largest free agent signing in White Sox franchise history and really indicated that the team was ready to spend on impactful upgrades this offseason.

McCann is certainly an offense-first type of catcher and rates poorly from a pitching framing aspect which was something that the White Sox knew they desperately needed to get better at. James McCann finished last season in the bottom ten of catchers in Framing Rate with a (-8.0) value. In contrast, Yasmani Grandal finished the season second, to only Austin Hedges of the San Diego Padres, with an overall Framing Rate of (19.4). Hopefully by adding Grandal to the mix, he has enough of an impact on the White Sox pitching staff to make them one of the better overall staffs in the American League.

Last season with the aforementioned Milwaukee Brewers, Yasmani Grandal had a significant impact on the overall performance of the Brewers pitching staff. Milwaukee was in desperate need of a frontline starting rotation arm, but Grandal was able to help the Brewers get by with a sub-par starting rotation and a bullpen that certainly had its fair share of warts once the end of the season rolled around. A similar type of thing could potentially happen with the White Sox and Grandal should have a significant impact on the team's young stable of starting pitchers. The knowledge and veteran leadership that he brings to the plate should do wonders for the team overall.

Besides adding those three free agents, the Chicago White Sox also addressed their need to add additional offense to the team with the acquisition of Nomar Mazara from the Texas Rangers. Mazara, who was one a top prospect for the Texas Rangers, hasn't necessarily lived up to the high expectations that the Rangers or all of baseball once had for him. Therefore, a change of scenery might be exactly what Mazara needs and the White Sox are hoping to tap into the offensive potential that he possesses because if they can, Mazara could make a significant impact on the overall offense of the team.

Last season with the Texas Rangers, Mazara finished the year with an overall Offensive rating of (-3.6) and an overall Defensive rating of (-8.1). When you combine those metrics together, Mazara was no better than a half a WAR (0.5) player and had an overall strikeout percentage of (23.0%) over the course of 469 plate appearances. However, the promising news is that Mazara will be 25-years old next April and that means that he could be just starting to enter his prime years. Due to that, the Chicago White Sox decided to bet on him and didn't really have to give up a lot to acquire him. In return, the Texas Rangers received outfielder prospect, Steele Walker who is viewed by many scouts as someone that should be able to play centerfield on a regular basis eventually. While Walker might have been one of the White Sox top ten prospects, it's doesn't put much of a dent in their farm system and if Mazara can live up to the expectations that everyone around the game has always had for him, then it will be well worth it in the end.

Now that all four of those players have been added to the mix for the Chicago White Sox, the team is in a better position today than they were at the end of last season. While it might not necessarily mean that they will contend with the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins for the American League Central crown, it is a very positive step in the right direction and brings about a promising outlook for the future on the Southside of Chicago. With that being said though, there are still a few things that the White Sox need to look at adding before the offseason concludes and there should be some payroll flexibility to address those needs to some degree.

When you add Dallas Keuchel's reported ($18.5) million dollar salary for next season to the current payroll figure for the White Sox, the total amount comes out to be a projected ($102.2) million dollars for their 26-man roster, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. If you include the total 40-man roster into that valuation with Keuchel's reported salary, then the total amount is ($129) million dollars. That would give the White Sox the highest payroll they have ever had over the last twenty years and would be a record amount. Although, with the market size of Chicago and the overall revenue of the team, the White Sox should be able to afford that amount of money and potentially more to the point where the end payroll valuation could sit between ($140-$150) million dollars.

Assuming that the White Sox front office won't be under any spending constraints from ownership for the remainder of the offseason, the first thing that needs to be next on the White Sox to-do list is to add additional offense to the team in some form. Throughout this offseason, there has been plenty of chatter about the White Sox signing outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos and he could be a very good fit for them and provide that much needed additional offense. If Nicholas Castellanos is out of the White Sox price range, then the team could look to add free agent outfielder, Corey Dickerson instead who is another great offensive player.

Another part of the roster where the Chicago White Sox could make to look an addition is at their Designated Hitter position. A perfect fit for that position would be free agent, Edwin Encarnacion who could provide the team with additional offense and provide for a depth option at first base should first baseman, Jose Abreu need a day off. What makes Encarnacion seem like a plausible option is the idea that he would come cheap for the White Sox and wouldn't require longer than a one or two-year commitment. Right now, the White Sox have Zack Collins penciled in as their Opening Day Designated Hitter, but Collins is only 24-years old and Encarnacion could be a great mentor for a player like Collins.

Beyond the need to add additional offense, the Chicago White Sox would also be wise to look at the overall makeup of their bullpen and see if they are able to make an upgrade or two there as well. Unfortunately for Chicago, there's not really any impact free agent relief pitchers left on the open market, but maybe someone like free agent right-handers Will Harris and/or Steve Cishek could be potential options. If the White Sox were to add one of them and then turn their eyes to the trade market to see if they could add another bullpen arm, then they would be in really good shape.

In fact, one potential trade that could fulfill the need for additional offense and a bullpen arm could be found with the Seattle Mariners. The White Sox could focus on trying to acquire outfielder, Mitch Haniger and one of Seattle's relievers which would address both needs on the trade front. In addition, another potential trade could be found with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The White Sox could attempt to acquire outfielder, Starling Marte and one of Pittsburgh's relievers. In either of these scenarios, the White Sox could address two needs in one singular trade and potentially in a cost-effective manner, should payroll be a concern for the team moving forward or if the organization wants to set aside money to make a mid-season addition or two.

As the roster is currently constructed, the 2020 regular season looks a lot more promising for the Chicago White Sox now than it did at the end of the 2019 regular season. However, as is the case with anything in baseball, nothing is guaranteed and the results always come on the field versus on paper. Despite that though, the White Sox have been very aggressive thus far this offseason and have made things interesting in not only the American League Central, but the American League as a whole as well.