Free Agent Profile: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu

By: Chris Larson 

Now that both free agent right-handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg have come off the board, the focus now shifts to that second tier of the pitching market with a trio of left-handers in Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. All three of those names should command plenty of interest from around the league and many have already been linked to a number of different teams already to this point.

Of those three names, a lot is known about Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel. While Hyun-Jin Ryu was able to develop some stardom with the Los Angeles Dodgers over the past few seasons,  many baseball fans don't necessarily understand his pure skillset or the type of value that he could provide to their respective team. As is the case with every free agent, Hyun-Jin Ryu has his own blemish in the fact that he missed the entire 2016 season dealing with left elbow tendinitis and then dealt with groin issues during the 2018 regular season as well as last year, but there is quite a bit to like from a pure stuff standpoint.

The shining moment of Ryu's six-year major league career occurred during the 2018 regular season when he finished the season with a 1.97 ERA over 82.1 innings of work with a strikeouts-per-9 rate of (9.7) and a (3.00) Fielding Independent Percentage. However, that all came over (15) games started. Ryu started the second most games in his career (29) and posted a 2.32 ERA over 182.2 innings pitched. Over that span, Ryu had an ERA+ of (179) and the lowest walks-per-9 rate of his career at (1.2). Therefore, although he might turn 33 next March and that could provide some hesitancy for some teams, the recent track record is there to back up his worth to a potential team.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers from last season, Hyun-Jin Ryu held opponents to a (.230) batting average last season, recorded a (.278) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), and induced the most soft contact of his career with (20.3%) of his pitches falling into that category. Comparing those stats to the other qualified starting pitchers from around the league, it would put Ryu in the upper third of the group with the lowest BABIP, upper third of the group with the lowest batting average against, and seventh among fifty-eight qualified starters in soft contact rate.

Besides being able to induce a lot of soft contact last year, another speciality about Hyun-Jin Ryu is his ability to throw groundballs. Among qualified starting pitchers across baseball last season, Ryu recorded a cumulative groundball rate of (50.4%) and had an overall fastball-to-groundball ratio of (1.98) which was the sixth highest value of that group. When you start to think of potential teams that would benefit from a starting pitcher with a groundball specialty like this, you look at the Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, and Colorado Rockies as some of the best of the best fits due to the defense those teams have on the left side of their infield. Of that group of three teams, the Colorado Rockies probably won't end up looking to sign him because they might potentially be taking a step back heading into next year and the San Diego Padres seem more focused on the other two aforementioned free agents, Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel.

As a result, the Los Angeles Angels might be the best fit out there because of that left side defense. Now that the Angels have added third baseman, Anthony Rendon to the mix, that is a serious defensive upgrade for them at the hot corner and when you pair that with the defensive abilities of shortstop, Andrelton Simmons you get almost a match made in heaven. Add to the fact that the Los Angeles Angels have above league average defense at first and second base and that helps to contribute to the argument. For more on all of that refer to this visual below which is a spray chart showing the base hits that Hyun-Jin Ryu surrendered this past season.

As you can see from the spray chart, many of the singles that Hyun-Jin Ryu surrendered to opponents came on the left side of the infield. The singles on the right side were hit further out towards the outfield and that could be a significant contributor to one of the reasons why the Los Angeles Angels could potentially target Ryu very aggressively here in the coming weeks. When you look at the Angels outfield, the one caveat could be the defense of Justin Upton in left field, with the number of base hits that were hit into that direction, as defense has alway's been something that Upton has struggled with (over his thirteen year big league career Upton has a cumulative -9 Defensive Runs Saved value). Regardless, all of this has likely been taken into consideration by the Angels as they devise their plan and figure out how serious they should be in the pursuit of Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Another potentially intriguing fit for Hyun-Jin Ryu would be the Toronto Blue Jays. Ryu hasn't come out and publicly said whether or not he would accept an offer from a team that would require him to move out of the United States, but the Blue Jays internally feel as though Ryu could be a very good pitcher for them. However, with that being said, the defense on the left side of the Blue Jays infield is spotty. Bo Bichette rates well defensively at shortstop and could even get better considering that he is only twenty-one years old, but there are legitimate concerns about the defense of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over at third base. Therefore, that could be a significant problem when it comes to trying to round up some of those base hits that are hit by the opposing team to that side of the field.

Furthermore, adding to the discussion of where Ryu tends to give up hits around the field, it's important to look at his overall pitch repertoire and the horizontal/vertical break on each one of those pitches. For more on that, here's two more graphics courtesy of Baseball Savant that showcase Ryu's data compared to the league average data.

From this chart, it is easy to gather that Hyun-Jin Ryu has quite a pitch repertoire and that could play very well for a number of different teams across the league. As you can see on the left side, his primary pitches are his changeup and four-seam fastball. Depending on the opponent and their strengths, the curveball is utilized and the slider is used very rarely. The idea of him varying his speed on all of the pitches is also advantageous for teams because that means that he possesses the ability to keep the other team guessing as to what is coming next when they are up to bat. None of the pitches are heaters (uppers 90's or higher), but it's obvious that this mix worked quite well for him during his walk year last season.

Additionally, the graphic on the right showcases Hyun-Jin Ryu's horizontal and vertical break on his pitches compared to the league average. Both Ryu's curveball and cutter more often that not travel to the third base side of the field, while the other three pitches travel towards the first base side. If Ryu is able to throw his slider more often, that would give him another pitch, that most of the league throws to the third base side of the field, which could even build his value up more. In regard to the vertical and horizontal height of the pitches, Ryu's curveball sits a bit below league average, while his cutter is right on par with the rest of the league. The same can be said for his four-seam fastball, sinker, and changeup as well. All of the data showcased is from the viewpoint of what the catcher sees behind the dish.

Considering that Ryu's two most common pitches are his changeup and four-seam fastball, that could play a vital part in a team's decision to pursue the southpaw as well. For instance, if Ryu were to sign with the Los Angeles Angels, that could be a potential game changer for the Oakland Athletics. Among all major league teams, the Athletics were tied for the second lowest fastball velocity last season at (92.9 MPH). Additionally, when it comes to the changeup, the Houston Astros had the lowest exit velocity on that pitch in baseball for the 2019 regular season at (83.9 MPH). What's important about that is the fact that the higher the exit velocity is on a pitch, the better the opposing team's batters are able to barrel up that specific pitch. In both of these situations, the Oakland Athletics struggled with the fastball, while the Houston Astros struggled trying to barrel up changeups from the pitchers that they went to bat against during the 2019 regular season.

Beyond all of those metrics, another important consideration to look at when evaluating a pitcher is their splits against left-handed and right-handed batters. As is the case with left-handers, Ryu faced a higher majority of right-handers last season posting a cumulative opponent batting line against of: .245/.280/.370 with a (.275) Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), (22.0%) strikeout percentage, and a (.295) BABIP. Against left-handers over the course of 47.1 innings, Ryu put up an opponent batting line against of: .199/.211/.327 with a (.225) wOBA, (24.3%) strikeout percentage, and a (.224) BABIP. Below is a breakdown for left-handers and right-handers based on Ryu's two most common pitches - his changeup and four-seam fastball, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

The above graphics are for left-handed hitters and help to illustrate the point of how Hyun-Jin Ryu did a very good job of throwing the changeup around the plate working inside and outside of the strike zone, both high and low in comparison to home plate. Over 49 plate appearances with his changeup against lefties, Ryu recorded an opponent batting average of (.128), a swing percentage of (66.7%), and a cumulative whiff percentage of (21.6%). Beyond that, his changeup induced an average movement value of (7.7) and an overall Infield Fly Ball Rate (IFFB) of (30.8%). Given the fact that Ryu has pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers for his entire major league career, there is no real data or evidence to go off of in regards to how his changeup would play against left-handers in the American League specifically the American League West if the Los Angeles Angels were to sign him.

On the other side of the coin, the above graphic showcases Hyun-Jin Ryu's four-seam fastball against right-handed hitters. As you can see from the graphic, a lot of his four-seamers are up in the zone and inside towards the batter, which can be very deceiving when the opposing hitter is looking for a pitch, to make contact with. On the four-seamer over 122 plate appearances, Ryu held right-handers to a batting average of (.202), a swing percentage of (44.8%), and a cumulative whiff percentage of (19.1%). Furthermore, Ryu's four-seamer spin rate of (2,085 RPM), sat in the bottom half of left-handed pitchers, according to Statcast data. In case you were wondering, Mike Minor had the highest spin rate on his four-seamer at (2,650 RPM) in that category.

While there are certainly some cautionary warning signs that are attached to Hyun-Jin Ryu in his case as a free agent, there is plenty to like about the left-hander as well. Ryu will turn 33 next March, as previously mentioned in this article, so some teams might express hesitancy to sign him to a deal that is longer than two-years, but it all depends on the demands of Ryu himself as well. Hyun-Jin Ryu and his camp will need to be realistic in their demands from a new team otherwise this is one free agent case that could carry out well into Spring Training.

However, with that being said and the demand for starting pitching this offseason from a number of different teams, there might be a team out there that sees plenty of promise in the analytical trends for Ryu such as the ones outlined above, that they feel very comfortable meeting his demands and giving him the deal he commands. After all, Ryu might be a late-bloomer based on the numbers from last season and could very well excel with the right team in the right environment. Whether or not that be with a team like the Los Angeles Angels remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure and that's the idea that the Angels will continue to debate about whether or not Ryu is the right guy for them in the coming weeks.

For now, the free agent case for Hyun-Jin Ryu will continue to drag on with plenty more rumors likely to come and the intrigue of what the soon to be 33-year old can offer to his new team.