Let's Fake A Deal: Hot Stove Style

By: Chris Larson 

The Winter Meetings are nearly upon us and that means that the Hot Stove League should be back in full action here over the next several days. With the arrival of the Winter Meetings, come the hundreds of different ideas that General Managers bounce off each other in hopes of improving their ball club and potentially look at dealing from an area of strength to address an area of weakness.

Every year at the Winter Meetings, teams have their General Managers, front office executives, and scouts cooped up in suites and nearly all of the conversation and work takes place on the phone now compared to in the past where things were done in the hotel lobby. However, that doesn't mean that deals aren't being formulated and discussed in-depth or bandied about until a trade package is established that meets the needs of both or even all three (in a three-way trade) parties.

With that being said, let's put on our General Manager hat and fake a deal involving five of this offseason's biggest trade candidates.

1. Francisco Lindor to the Atlanta Braves 

Atlanta Receives: Shortstop Francisco Lindor

Cleveland Receives: SS Dansby Swanson, OF Drew Waters (No. 2 Prospect), RHP Ian Anderson (No. 3 Prospect), LHP Tucker Davidson (No. 13 Prospect), and INF Riley Delgado (No. 24 Prospect)

Why This Deal Should Happen for Atlanta: The Atlanta Braves don't need to upgrade their position player core, but if they were to add shortstop Francisco Lindor to the mix, it would indicate that they are all-in on winning the National League East and really boosting their chances of playing deep into the postseason. In fact, Lindor is the type of player that makes you a World Series caliber team and that's why he would fit so well in Atlanta. The Braves have already made plenty of moves so far this offseason and by adding Lindor, it would basically be the cherry on top of the sundae. Lindor has two years of control remaining before he hits free agency so the price tag is going to be astronomically high as it should be and the Cleveland Indians won't budge until they receive exactly what they are looking for. However, the Braves have built up enough depth in the farm system that even by subtracting the impact prospects mentioned above, they still have a ton of impact talent left at the upper levels of the system. Some of those talented names at the high end of the system still include: OF Cristian Pache (No. 1 Prospect), RHP Kyle Wright (No. 4 Prospect), and RHP Bryse Wilson (No. 6 Prospect). It might hurt to drain the farm system in this fashion for some Atlanta Braves fans, but it certainly won't hurt if they end up with a World Series ring because of it. Furthermore, when teams have a window to win, they need to capitalize on that window and that's exactly what the Atlanta Braves have already conveyed so far this offseason and should continue to convey during the remainder of the offseason leading up to Spring Training.

Why This Deal Should Happen for Cleveland: If the Cleveland Indians had their choice, they would not trade Francisco Lindor because he is such a pivotal part of their position player core group and has had such an impact on the entire franchise during his tenure in Cleveland. With that being said, the Indians also know that they won't be able to give him the type of extension that he is looking for (upwards of $300 million dollars) and have to always be aware of what other teams would offer the organization for players off of their big league roster. Therefore, if they are going to trade Lindor, now is the time because the value coming back is going to be maximized to the highest level. With this package, Cleveland would receive Dansby Swanson to fill the void at shortstop on their big league club, outfielder Drew Waters who has a very high ceiling and is ready to be a starting outfielder in the very near future, and right-handed pitcher Ian Anderson who has frontline stuff and can certainly be the ace that the Indians need to anchor the top of the starting rotation. In addition to those pieces, Cleveland would receive left-hander Tucker Davidson to add a left-handed reliever to their bullpen as soon as this coming year along with utility infielder, Riley Delgado. All of those pieces help Cleveland now and heading into the future when it comes to team control so it would be a very good return for them and allow the big league team to remain competitive for the next handful of seasons with very good, young, controllable pieces.

2. Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers 

Los Angeles Receives: Right Fielder Mookie Betts and RHP Bryan Mata (No. 3 Prospect)

Boston Receives: Catcher Kiebert Ruiz (No. 3 Prospect) and RHP Josiah Gray (No. 4 Prospect)

Why This Deal Should Happen for Los Angeles: Los Angeles is win-now mode and despite winning the National League West for seven consecutive seasons, the Dodgers still don't have a World Series Championship under their belt. Therefore, they should be all into the idea of going big this offseason and really upgrading their team in a way that helps put the team over the top. Right now, the Dodgers have Joc Pederson plugged in as their everyday starting right fielder, but there have been plenty of reports that Pederson is available on the trade market and that means that Los Angeles is looking to upgrade at that position. With the roster flexibility that the Dodgers possess, they have the ability to mix and match with a different group of players each game and that means that Mookie Betts could fit in very nicely. Betts has the ability to play center or right field everyday and would give the Dodgers a reliable option at both positions as well as another middle of the order bat that opposing teams would fear. While Betts only has one year of control remaining until free agency, the Los Angeles Dodgers need to be focused on winning now and utilizing their prospect capital to make a big splash to upgrade their roster. In addition, the Los Angeles Dodgers possess a lot of payroll flexibility moving forward so there is always the chance that the organization elects to extend Mookie Betts long-term. So far this offseason, there has been plenty of chatter about the Dodgers being interested in RHP Gerrit Cole and 3B Anthony Rendon so it certainly signals that the organization is ready to spend now.

Why This Deal Should Happen for Boston: Looking at the trade from here, the Boston Red Sox are probably very hesitant to trade Mookie Betts because he is such an integral part of their position player core and is a guy the team needs in their starting lineup for every game. That's especially true if the Red Sox want to contend again in 2020 and put the struggles of last season behind them for good. However, with the state of the Boston Red Sox organization and the idea that they want to slash payroll significantly to get under the ($208) million dollar luxury tax threshold for next season, Boston needs to be open to any and all trade ideas. Therefore, Boston might need to add an attractive piece to the package to make the other team take on the entire estimated $27 million dollars that Betts will earn in arbitration for 2020. In this case, Boston would give up their best pitching prospect in right-hander, Bryan Mata but would receive back a prospect with just as high of a ceiling in righty, Josiah Gray. As the Red Sox look to retool their roster and look at ways to build up the level of impact in the farm system, the organization needs to focus on pitching prospects and preferably arms that have the ability to be front-to-middle of the starting rotation pitchers. If Gray is able to fine tune his mechanics and has solid command, then he can easily be a middle of the rotation guy just like Bryan Mata can be for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Beyond Gray, the Red Sox would also receive back a highly touted catching prospect in, Kiebert Ruiz who can be the organization's catcher of the future. As it stands right now, the Red Sox do not possess a single catching prospect in their Top 30 Prospect list.

3. Willson Contreras to the Tampa Bay Rays 

Tampa Bay Receives: Catcher Willson Contreras

Chicago Cubs Receive: LHP Matthew Liberatore (No. 4 Prospect), RHP Shane Baz (No. 7 Prospect), RHP Drew Strotman (No. 24 Prospect), and 1B/3B Kevin Paldo (No. 25 Prospect)

Why This Deal Should Happen for Tampa Bay: After losing Travis d'Arnaud to free agency and given the lack of overall depth behind the dish, the Tampa Bay Rays are in need of a frontline catcher. Willson Contreras certainly fits the bill and would give Tampa Bay a legitimate option behind home plate. If the season started today, Mike Zunino would be the Rays starting catcher and Michael Perez would serve as the backup. With all due respect to both Zunino and Perez, Willson Contreras would be a tremendous upgrade for Tampa Bay over both of those options and would be the type of guy that the Rays would want behind the dish to guide their pitching staff. However, as with anything in the game of baseball, the cost to acquire Contrearas is going to be significant because he has three years of control remaining and the Chicago Cubs are going to want to receive back multiple impact pieces in exchange of him. Although, the Rays have one of the more highly touted farm systems in the game right now and it has many multiple layers of impact so Tampa Bay could likely afford to make this deal without hampering the future state of the organization. With that being said, the Rays have been hesitant to deal prospects in the past and would prefer to rely on internal options instead, but sometimes the best upgrades come from outside of the organization and that's the case with this trade.

Why This Deal Should Happen for the Chicago Cubs: The Chicago Cubs have been very clear about their need to trade one of the pieces of their positional player core group to revitalize the team and give it a boost after a disappointing couple of seasons. Chicago knows that they need to do something to mix-up the roster and know that either Willson Contreras or third baseman Kris Bryant would bring back the biggest return to the organization. Therefore, with the demand for catching around baseball right now, there are a handful of different teams that could use Willson Contreras including the: Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels, and Texas Rangers, but all four of those teams either don't have the young pitching that the Cubs need or have other pressing needs that require more attention. That's where the Tampa Bay Rays come into the picture and make for the perfect trade partner for the Cubs because they possess plenty of high ceiling pitching in their system and the Cubs have stated that they need to do a much better job of developing pitching. In this deal, the Cubs would receive left-handed Matthew Liberatore who was a high school draftee but has a three-pitch, deceptive pitch repertoire along with right-hander Shane Baz who should impact a big league club by the 2021 regular season. Beyond both of those pieces, the Cubs would also receive right-hander Drew Strotman in the deal to be an impact bullpen arm for down the road and first baseman/third baseman Kevin Padlo.

4. Whit Merrifield to the San Diego Padres 

San Diego Receives: Second Baseman Whit Merrifield and LHP Mike Montgomery

Kansas City Receives: INF Greg Garcia, RHP Cal Quantrill, SS CJ Abrams (No. 4 Prospect), RHP Michael Baez (No. 8 Prospect), 3B Hudson Potts (No. 10 Prospect), OF Edward Olivares (No. 16 Prospect), and C Blake Hunt (No. 26 Prospect)

Why This Deal Should Happen for San Diego: Heading into the 2020 season, the San Diego Padres are in complete win-now mode and must do everything possible to put the team in a position to contend sooner than later. In fact, as San Diego Padres owner Ron Fowler stated, if the team doesn't contend in 2020, then "heads will roll." That's certainly a pressure quote for San Diego Padres General Manager, A.J. Preller and means that he is on the clock to do something big. Therefore, the big splash can be to use the organization's prospect capital and acquire second baseman Whit Merrifield from the Kansas City Royals along with left-hander Mike Montgomery. San Diego is in need of an everyday second baseman and while the team just acquired Jurickson Profar from the Oakland Athletics, Merrifield is a much better offensive option at second base and has the ability to hit leadoff which is another thing that the Padres need to work on addressing this offseason. On top of Whit Merrifield, the Padres would receive lefty Mike Montgomery in this proposed deal to give them some middle-to-back end of the starting rotation depth. Montgomery concluded last season with a 4.64 ERA over 64.0 innings of work, but if the Padres want to contend this coming season, then it would be a really good idea to add in some stability to allow the team's young starters to continue to develop at a reasonable pace.

Why This Deal Should Happen for Kansas City: All along the Kansas City Royals have been very hesitant to deal away second baseman Whit Merrifield, but Merrifield is easily the organization's biggest trade chip right now and considering that he is going to be 31 next season, it adds to the list of reasons why the Royals should cash him in now. Given that the Royals would be giving up two major league pieces in this deal with team control, the package going back to Kansas City would be quite a haul. Since they dealt away Whit Merrifield, Kansas City would need another option at second base that would be ready to play now and they would get that in Greg Garcia. Additionally, Cal Quantrill is someone that the Royals can add to their starting rotation and although Quantrill has risk based on the results of last season, there is still plenty of potential that the organization might be able to tap into. Beyond both of those pieces, Kansas City would receive back shortstop CJ Abrams who some scouts believe could eventually take over at second base as well as right-hander Michael Baez, a pitcher that many scouts believe will eventually be a shutdown closer at the back end of a bullpen. For the next Royals team to be highly competitive, they need that presence at the end of games and would get that with Baez. On top of those pieces, the Royals would also receive back Hudson Potts who could give them a legitimate option at the hot corner moving ahead into the future, outfielder Edward Olivares a future right fielder, and a high-risk but potentially big reward prospect in catcher, Blake Hunt. If the Royals are able to develop Hunt in the right way, he could be the organization's catcher of the future.

5. Starling Marte to the Texas Rangers 

Texas Receives: Centerfielder Starling Marte and RHP Chris Archer

Pittsburgh Receives: OF Delino DeShields, C Sam Huff (No. 2 Prospect), OF Leody Taveras (No. 5 Prospect), and LHP Joe Palumbo (No. 6 Prospect)

Why This Deal Should Happen for Texas: The Texas Rangers are getting ready to move into their new ballpark, Globe Life Park and the time is now for the organization to start becoming more relevant again. As part of that equation, the Rangers are looking to make a big splash in free agency this offseason and have been connected to all three of the big fish in free agency: RHP Gerrit Cole, RHP Stephen Strasburg, and 3B Anthony Rendon to some degree. While the organization certainly has the payroll flexibility to ink any one of those names to a long-term deal, the team also has the need to upgrade at various positions around the diamond including in centerfield. The Rangers have made it known that they would like to add additional offense to their lineup and Starling Marte would be the perfect guy to do that. Marte only has one season of team control remaining at a projected ($11.5) million dollars, but does have a ($12.5) million dollar team option for the 2021 regular season meaning that he could give the Texas Rangers two impactful seasons. While Marte had a down season defensively last year, he is just two years removed from the 2017 regular season in which he recorded (8) Defensive Runs Saved and a Ultimate Zone Rating of (6.2). On top of Marte, the Rangers would also receive right-hander, Chris Archer in this deal to add to their starting rotation. While Archer was not good by any means for the Pittsburgh Pirates, he could be an impactful arm in a starting rotation with the right organization.

Why This Deal Should Happen for Pittsburgh: It's still very unclear what direction the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to head in this offseason because new General Manager, Ben Cherington still has not made a big league transaction during his short tenure in the steel city, but all indications are that Cherington would prefer to build the organization from the ground up. If that is the case, then everyone with the exception of outfielder, Bryan Reynolds should be available for trade this offseason. Regardless of what direction the organization goes in, outfielder Starling Marte still remains a candidate with a very good chance of being dealt this offseason and while the Pittsburgh Pirates won't net as big of a return for right-hander, Chris Archer as the one they gave up to acquire him from the Tampa Bay Rays, they would still get something by attaching him with Starling Marte. So far this offseason in trade discussions involving Starling Marte, Pittsburgh has been talking to teams about their top catching prospect and in this deal that's who would headline the package going back. Catching prospect, Sam Huff has a very high ceiling and a bright future so that would fill the need for a frontline future catcher immediately for the Pirates. In addition, Pittsburgh would receive outfielder Leody Taveras who has a very high offensive ceiling and the capability to play centerfield in the future as well as left-hander Joe Palumbo who can step right into the Pirates starting rotation. Besides Palumbo, another major league ready piece heading back to the Pirates would be outfielder, Delino DeShields to occupy the centerfield void left behind by Starling Marte.