Digging Into What Makes the Cincinnati Reds Starting Rotation Intriguing

By: Chris Larson 

As they say in the game of baseball, you can never have enough pitching especially starting pitching. Many teams have attempted to adhere to that notion over the last few years, but the Cincinnati Reds have seemingly been one of the few teams around the league to remake their starting rotation in some regard and continue to look for ways to bolster it this offseason.

Last season, the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation concluded the season with a 4.12 ERA over 883.1 innings of work, which was the fifth best ERA in the National League behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, and New York Mets. As a rotation, the Reds put up a (4.19) Fielding Independent Percentage, the highest strikeouts-per-9 rate in the National League at (9.70), and the third lowest Opponent Batting Average Against in the National League at (.233). Prior to last season, very few would have expected the Reds staff to put up numbers like that, but due to the contributions of first-year pitching coach, Derek Johnson he was able to imply some of his knowledge as a college pitching coach, with Vanderbilt University, on the Reds pitchers and get them to perform at a much higher level than in previous seasons.

Sometimes, when analyzing pitching staffs, ERA can be misleading because it takes into account the defense behind a pitcher and if there's any errors made, those immediately penalize whoever is on the mound at that time. Therefore, one stat to look at is SIERA which stands for Skill Interactive Earned Run Average and takes each pitcher's individual skill set into factor when trying to calculate the total Earned Run Average. If you look at that individual stat alone, the Reds tied with the New York Mets in that category with a (4.18) value.

One of the standout moves for the Cincinnati Reds happened prior to last season when the team added Sonny Gray to their starting rotation from the New York Yankees and then immediately signed Gray to a four-year, $38 million dollar contract extension that included a team option for the 2023 regular season. Gray got an opportunity to reunite with the aforementioned, Derek Johnson from his days at Vanderbilt University, and based on the results that Gray put up it was definitely a worthwhile move for Cincinnati. Gray finished last season with an ERA of (2.87) which was nearly two runs better than in 2018 and pitched (175.1) innings which was the most since the 2015 regular season. All in all, when you combine all of the metrics together for Sonny Gray, it equaled the best ERA+ (158) of his seven-year big league career.

Another impact move that the Cincinnati Reds made last season came a few days prior to the July 31st Trade Deadline when the team acquired starting pitcher, Trevor Bauer from the cross-state Cleveland Indians. Unfortunately for Bauer, he didn't experience the same success as he did in Cleveland as his ERA rose from 3.79 over twenty-four starts with the Indians to 6.39 over ten starts with the Cincinnati Reds. However, over those ten starts, Bauer put up a strikeouts-per-9 rate of (10.9) which is the highest of his eight-year big league career along with a (.287) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). That BABIP happened to be 10 points lower (.297) than during the first half of the season with the Cleveland Indians which is indicative that the contact that Bauer did allow over those ten starts was not necessarily as severe as it looks on the surface.

Looking ahead to the 2020 regular season, the Cincinnati Reds have positioned themselves to potentially be a surprise contender and even take the National League Central crown, if everything clicks the right way. It's certainly going to be a daunting task and unless the Reds are able to find another bat that can post some big numbers it might be challenging given the landscape of the division, but with the way the Reds have constructed their starting rotation, there's a lot to like about the team and it's chances.

Going into this season, the Cincinnati Reds have a starting rotation anchored down by Luis Castillo at the top followed by the aforementioned, Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray, right-hander Anthony DeSclafani and newly acquired, Wade Miley who Cincinnati signed yesterday through free agency. The deal with Miley has still not become official as it is pending a physical, but it's a very good step in the right direction for a team that has its sights set on contending this season for the National League Central crown. Beyond those five, the Reds also have right-hander, Tyler Mahle who can be utilized as a sixth starter for the team or used in the event of an injury. Mahle has one option remaining so that allows for there to be competition come Spring Training and a potential decision that the team will eventually have to make.

If Trevor Bauer is able to get back to the guy that he was in Cleveland, then the Cincinnati Reds will have a very solid 1-2 punch in Luis Castillo and Trevor Bauer. One reason why Luis Castillo is so intriguing at the top of the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation is because of the four-pitch repertoire that he possesses and uses to his advantage so often. Castillo's primary pitch last season was his changeup which he threw (31.6%) of the time and recorded an opponent batting average of (.128) with. Of the total amount of pitches from last season, (47%) of the changeups that Castillo threw resulted in a strikeout and it really was his put away pitch at (38.0%). Additionally, among the four pitches that Castillo threw, the one with the highest amount of vertical movement last season was his four-seamer with a horizontal movement of (3.6) inches. For more on that, take a look at this chart showcasing the horizontal movement on Luis Castillo's four pitches from 2017-2019, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

As you can see from the chart, the four pitches primarily followed the same path throughout the three seasons with slight variations especially during the 2018 regular season. The most intriguing of the four might be Castillo's slider because it sits so low and really has that deception towards the lower half of the opposing team's hitters body. However, part of the success that Castillo had last season came from his ability to throw these four pitches at different slot angles and varying points in relation to the body of the hitter at home plate. Given that Luis Castillo just turned 27-years old, it will be interesting to look at the horizontal measurements of each of these four pitches after the 2020 regular season and see if there were any changes that came about because he will be a year old and in the midst of his peak years.

Furthermore, another intriguing component of the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation is the aforementioned, Trevor Bauer. Cincinnati was likely intrigued by Bauer because he is one of the more outspoken starting pitchers in baseball and is really in-tune with the analytics of the game today, the measurement of his pitches, and his overall pitch mechanics every time he takes the mound. An intriguing part of Trevor Bauer's game plan is his ability to throw six different pitches and to incorporate them all during the span of a single game. For more on Trevor Bauer's pitch arsenal and his overall usage, refer to the graphic below courtesy of Baseball Savant once again.

Based on the chart, it's fair to say that Trevor Bauer possesses an excellent ability to work inside, outside, up and down in correlation to the strike zone and home plate. When Bauer is on the mound, he has an ability to identify the perfect spot to throw a particular pitch and get the opposing team's hitter to swing at said pitch. Bauer threw his sinker the least amount of time last season (3.7%), as indicated in the chart above, but (53.6%) of the time that pitch landed directly in the strike zone. The only pitch that had a higher in zone strikeout percentage was his four-seamer at (54.3%). Besides being a pitch that Bauer regularly threw for strikes inside of the strike zone, his sinker had the second lowest hard-hit percentage at (25%). Of the six pitches in Bauer's repertoire, his slider had the lowest hard-hit percentage at (22.1%), while his four-seamer had the highest at (46.6%). The four-seamer was the one that really got Bauer into trouble at certain times last year and if the pitch was left up too high, it often times left the ballpark.

Switching the conversation to Sonny Gray now, as mentioned before, last season was a pivotal career for Gray and one where he became a version of his old self. Some of that was due to the impact of first-year pitching coach, Derek Johnson as previously mentioned, but it was also because Sonny Gray decided to work at his craft and really put in the hours to become great again. Last season, Gray threw a total of (2,909) pitches and had a Barrel Percentage of (6.8%), while allowing an Average Exit Velocity of (87.1 MPH). In addition, Sonny Gray really developed the reputation of being a groundball pitcher with an overall groundball percentage of (50.8%). As is the case with Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray is another guy that had a six-pitch repertoire last season and was able to incorporate all six of those pitches in a way that seemingly worked every time he took the mound.

Of those six pitches that Gray incorporated into his pitch repertoire, the one that induced the highest amount of swing and miss was his slider at (39.3%). Prior to the season starting, the Reds likely identified that as a part of Sonny Gray's game plan that they wanted to improve because the overall usage of that pitch increased significantly between the 2018 and 2019 regular seasons. In 2018, Gray incorporated that pitch into his repertoire (14.7%) of the time with an Opponent Weighted On-Base Average of (.251) and an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.185). However, during the 2019 regular season, Sonny Gray incorporated that pitch into his repertoire (23.9%) of the time with a whiff rate of (39.3%) and a spin rate of (2,868 RPM). For an illustration of Sonny Gray's overall swing and miss percentage rates courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Based on the variations in these metrics from the past few seasons for each of these pitches, it will be interesting to see if Sonny Gray continues to trend in the right direction with even better swing and miss metrics, if he stays consistent with last seasons results, or if he takes somewhat of a step back. Looking at the Cincinnati Reds on paper, they are going to lean heavily on Sonny Gray because when he's effective and performing at his best, that really helps with the workload of the Reds bullpen and takes away concerns regarding the middle-to-back of the Reds starting rotation.

Focusing in on the number four spot of the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation now, it is likely to be a spot occupied by right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani concluded last season with a 3.89 ERA over 166.2 innings of work with an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.238) and the highest strikeouts-per-9 rate of his five-year big league career at (9.02). Furthermore, DeSclafani posted a hard-hit percentage of (38.7%) and a walk rate of (7.0%). One area that Anthony DeSclafani really struggled with was his ability to strand runners in scoring position. In those situations which accounted for (32) total innings, DeSclafani posted a 12.94 ERA with (34) strikeouts and a (1.19) WHIP. Looking ahead to the 2020 regular season, there's some risk involved with Anthony DeSclafani, but with the additions that the Reds have made over the past year, it should help take some of the overall pressure off of him.

One of the intriguing parts of Anthony DeSclafani's game plan is his ability to post a highly effective groundball-to-flyball ratio. According to FanGraphs, among qualified starting pitchers last season, DeSclafani ranked sixteenth with a (1.12) ratio. For more on the overall illustration of DeSclafani's ability to keep his pitches on the ground take a look at the chart below, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

As you can see from this chart, Anthony DeSclafani was able to keep his changeup on the ground quite a bit. DeSclafani's changeup induced an overall groundball percentage of (62.5%) and that is an important factor for the Reds in building their infield defense and the ballpark dynamics of Great American Ballpark. Over the years, Great American Ballpark has developed the reputation of being a hitter's ballpark due to the overall dimensions of the stadium and it certainly was last year. In fact, according to data compiled by ESPN, Great American Ballpark ranked eleventh in runs per game at (1.03) and ranked eighth in home runs with an average of (1.13) per game. During a season when the ball was flying, the ability to induce groundballs and prevent them from going over the outfield fence became even more emphasized.

Finally, rounding out the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation will be Wade Miley. Miley can occupy the fifth spot in the rotation and gives the Reds a legitimate arm to bolster that portion of the group. As mentioned previously, the deal is still pending a physical and has not yet become official, but should be announced by the team any day now. As for Wade Miley last season, he was very effective for the Houston Astros, but then seemed to hit a wall out of nowhere which forced the team to shut him down for the season and have him sit on the bench through the playoffs. Miley concluded the season with a 3.98 ERA over 167.1 innings of work with a barrel percentage of (4.5%) and an overall strikeout percentage of (19.4%).

Like many of the other starting pitchers for the Cincinnati Reds, Wade Miley has the ability to throw six different pitches with his most common being his cutter. Miley concluded last season throwing his cutter (46.9%) of the time and induced a whiff rate of (19.1%) with that pitch alone. When you start to chart the cutter pitches that Miley threw last season, it comes out to (2.5) inches of break and an overall horizontal movement of approximately (0.6) inches. Now, Miley does have some risk attached to him most notably when it comes to trying to keep the ball in the ballpark and now gives up more home runs with certain pitches. Therefore, an important metric to look at is an Exit Velocity Histogram. Below is the Exit Velocity Histogram for Wade Miley based on last year's data from Baseball Savant.

This histogram can be difficult to understand without having the histogram for every single lined up side-by-side, but essentially the results trended the wrong way for Miley last year compared to during the 2018 regular season when he was apart of the Milwaukee Brewers. For example, the highest bar on the graph above is the 95 MPH bar which indicates an Average Exit Velocity of approximately 95 miles per hour. During the 2019 regular season, Wade Miley had (75) batted balls that had an average exit velocity of that amount. However, during the 2018 regular season, Miley recorded (34) batted balls with that same exit velocity. When you move to the 100 MPH bar, Miley had (65) batted balls that accounted for that exit velocity last season. During the 2018 regular season, only (31) batted balls had an exit velocity of 100 miles per hour. Therefore, with the dimensions and dynamics of Great American Ballpark, Wade Miley is going to need to induce less contact on the bat and locate his pitches in the right area otherwise it could result in trouble.

Looking ahead to the 2020 regular season, there is a lot to look forward to with the Cincinnati Reds. There's a lot of intrigue about how the team is going to perform, what the offensive numbers could look like by the end of the season, and how David Bell is going to manage the team during his second full-season in that role. In addition to that intrigue, there is a lot of intrigue about the starting rotation and seeing if each starter is able to replicate the success they experienced last year or potentially perform at an even higher level. If the Reds are able to push all of the right buttons and their starting rotation performs like it did during the 2019 regular season, then the 2020 regular season might result in a surprise postseason berth for Cincinnati.

However, if the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation fails to perform like they did last season and don't execute on the main points mentioned in this article, then there might be some challenges when it comes to the Cincinnati Reds being a postseason bound team given the landscape of the National League Central. Regardless of the results, the Reds have put together a very interesting, intriguing, and out of the ordinary starting rotation over the course of the past year.