As Free Agent Starting Pitching Options Come Off the Board, Where Do Teams Turn Next?

By: Chris Larson

Going into this offseason, roughly half of the thirty teams in baseball were in the market for starting pitching in one way or another. Whether that be in the form of a frontline ace, a middle of the rotation arm to push younger starting pitchers back, or a back end option to fill a number five slot or potentially provide depth from down the stretch come next season. Luckily, for many teams, there were a plethora of different options available in free agency.

However, with that being said, some of those options are starting to come off the board as teams reach agreements with those names. With the onset of the offseason, some teams got a very early start in addressing their need for starting pitching and were able to come to terms with some free agents very quickly. On the other hand, there are still a number of free agent deals that have been reported, but have yet to be made official because they are pending a physical or an official team announcement. Many of those reported deals have happened over the last couple of days at the Winter Meetings in San Diego, California.

Among the most notable free agent starting pitching deals this offseason: the Washington Nationals coming to terms with right-hander Stephen Strasburg on a seven-year, $245 million dollar deal, the Philadelphia Phillies inking right-hander Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118 million dollar deal, and the biggest of them all - the New York Yankees reported deal with Gerrit Cole on a record-breaking nine-year, $324 million dollar pact. There have been other deals with lesser known starting pitchers as well which hints to the aggressiveness of many teams so far this offseason in their pursuit of upgrading their starting rotation.

Regardless of that, those teams that needed to desperately add starting pitching in free agency this offseason are beginning to be forced to turn to alternative plans. For most teams, there's always a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and so on, but as more and more options come off the free agent starting pitching board, some teams are going to start getting very creative. What makes this story even more fascinating is the idea that some teams have a need to add multiple starting pitchers this offseason which means that there is more demand than there is supply especially in free agency.

For instance, consider the Los Angeles Angels who lost out on their pursuit of right-hander, Gerrit Cole yesterday afternoon. As mentioned previously, the deal is still pending an official announcement (that is expected to come in a press conference next week), but that is a significant loss for a team that desperately needs a frontline starting pitcher like that. Sure, the Angels traded for former Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher, Dylan Bundy last week, but the team still needs at least two, if not three additional, impact arms for their rotation. If the Angels elect to only add another starting pitcher instead of multiple, then they will need to turn to the relief market to build up the depth in their bullpen, but that would be a very risky strategy considering the track record of some of the team's starters.

Additionally, theres the Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins - two other teams that have a need to add multiple starting pitchers this offseason. The Texas Rangers addressed one of those needs with their aforementioned deal with right-hander, Kyle Gibson but they are another team that needs to add at least two more impactful arms to their rotation. There was some chatter about the Rangers potentially being involved in the derby for Gerrit Cole and to a lesser degree Stephen Strasburg, but it reportedly never got so serious that the team felt compelled to make an offer to either pitcher. In addition, the Minnesota Twins brought back Jake Odorizzi on a one-year, $17.8 million dollar deal and Michael Pineda on a two-year, $20 million dollar contract, but even with Jose Berrios at the top of the starting rotation followed by Odorizzi and Pineda, Minnesota still has a need to add two impact starting pitchers. If they don't, then they could potentially have a very challenging time trying to win the American League Central come next season and advance deep into the postseason.

Therefore, with those three teams alone there is still a need to add at least six impactful starting pitchers, assuming every team focuses solely on their starting rotation to address their need for pitching and doesn't add a starter and then focus on bulking up their bullpen. At the moment, the number of impactful free agent starting pitchers is starting to dwindle and the second tier of the market consists of left-handers Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel along with right-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. Those three arms are going to create quite a bidding war between the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins and virtually any other team still in the market for pitching which includes a long list of teams in the: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays and to a lesser degree the San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, and Miami Marlins.

Some of those teams mentioned in the above paragraph were in the hunt for free agent, Zack Wheeler before he agreed to terms with the Philadelphia Phillies, while other teams have sort of addressed their need for starting pitching in another form or fashion. For example, the New York Mets have reportedly come to terms with free agent starter Michael Wacha on a one-year, $3 million dollar deal that includes incentives that can make it go up to $12 million dollars. The Atlanta Braves agreed to terms with free agent Cole Hamels last week on a one-year, $18 million dollar deal. Both of those are instances of teams that had a need to add a starting pitcher heading into this offseason, but addressed that need already.

So with that being said, as free agent starting pitchers continue to come off the board and given the demand that is still there around the league, where should those teams start to turn if they lose out on the likes of the aforementioned trio of Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, and Hyun-Jin Ryu? There's always the option of looking even lower in the free agent starting pitching market with names like Rick Porcello, Alex Wood, Julio Teheran, Tyson Ross, and Wade Miley. Some of those names are more attractive than others, but they could give some teams values on a low-risk deals that could potentially reap high dividends.

However, if the General Managers and other front office executives of teams in need of starting pitching don't find any of those free agents attractive, then they will need to turn their attention to the trade market for a potential upgrade. According to various reports throughout the offseason so far, teams have contacted the Colorado Rockies with interest in right-handers Jon Gray (pictured above) and German Marquez. Both Gray and Marquez represent high-risk options that the Rockies would likely trade away for the right package of players and prospects in return. With the dwindling amount of options in free agency, those are two potential targets for teams and with the right team, they could potentially completely change their mechanics and become effective once again.

Other potential trade targets exist on the Kansas City Royals roster as well in left-handers Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery. Some teams might be hesitant to trade for Danny Duffy because he turns 31 this year, but if a team is looking for a left-hander and is left without another potential option in free agency, then he could fill that need. Duffy has two years of control remaining and is owed a little more than ($30) million dollars over both of those years. The Royals would likely have to eat some of that money, but the return could make up for having to do that. Additionally, the Royals have Mike Montgomery as well who could potentially appeal to a team like the San Diego Padres, a team that has held discussions for a trade involving another Royals player - second baseman Whit Merrifield.

Outside of the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals, another team that potentially has pitching to offer is the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates possess two intriguing options in their starting rotation in right-handers Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams. Musgrove, who Pittsburgh acquired in the Gerrit Cole trade with the Houston Astros two years ago, could be a potential bounceback candidate with the right team in the right analytical environment. Additionally, Trevor Williams is still only 28 years of age and won't hit free agency until after the 2022 regular season. If there is a contending team looking for a controllable starter, Williams could fill that need. However, both Musgrove and Williams would likely cost a lot to acquire and there is still no definitive notion about exactly what the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to this offseason in regards to trying to win now, just retooling their big league roster, or going through a full blown rebuild.

Additionally, there has been interest in a member of the Cleveland Indians starting rotation as well - right hander Corey Kluber. Kluber is under control for one more season at ($17.5) million dollars,  but his contract does include a ($18) million dollar team option for next season or a ($1) million dollar team buyout. Corey Kluber could be someone that appeals to a number of different teams looking for starting pitching help and according to a report tonight by The Athletic, the Los Angeles Angels are very interested in trying to acquire the right-hander. Granted, Cleveland would probably have to include some money in any deal.

Beyond those four teams with potential starting pitching targets, there is also left-hander Matthew Boyd of the Detroit Tigers. Boyd was a very popular name on the trade market prior to last year's July 31st Trade Deadline, but Detroit never received an offer that was to their liking. Unfortunately, Boyd declined a bit during the second half of last season, posting a 5.51 ERA over 78.1 innings of work  over that time period. With Matthew Boyd, the Detroit Tigers have a critical decision to make and that involves either trading him now for potentially less value or holding onto him until next July and gauging interest at that time to see what the offers look like then. Detroit has held firm in their return for Boyd and there's no indication that's going to change anytime soon.

Furthermore, there are other options in the trade market that include Caleb Smith of the Miami Marlins, a pitcher who has a cumulative 4.66 ERA over the last three seasons, but someone that is under control for the next four seasons. Miami has been reluctant to trade Smith because he could be an integral part to their future starting rotation, but if it nets the team a position player in return, then it could be well worth it. Smith won't automatically be the ace for any contending team, but with more grooming he could potentially move from the middle-to-bottom of the starting rotation to the number two spot.

On the other end of the spectrum are high-priced options in J.A. Happ of the New York Yankees and David Price as well as Chris Sale of the Boston Red Sox. Many executives and analysts believe that the chances of Chris Sale being traded this offseason remain slim, but the Red Sox have reportedly discussed potential trade packages involving David Price. Boston would likely have to attach an intriguing player or prospect to make that happen. In addition, the New York Yankees possess J.A. Happ and after reportedly signing Gerrit Cole to their record-breaking deal last night, New York might look to cut payroll and trade Happ to make that happen. J.A. Happ is under control for one more season at ($17) million dollars, but his contract does include a ($17) million dollar vesting option for the 2021 regular season - provided that he logs 165 innings or makes 27 starts in 2020.

Although the big fish starting pitching free agents and other free agent options have come off the board, that doesn't mean that every single team still in the market for starting pitching is going to be out of luck. Rather, it means that the General Managers and front office executives of those teams will need to get creative and think outside of the box as they survey the market for other potential fits. As is always the case with free agency, the most aggressive team usually comes away with the player and thats been the case so far this offseason.

So that means how aggressive do the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, and Minnesota Twins get to fill their need for multiple impact starting pitchers? What strategy do the other teams listed above follow as a means to fill out their starting rotation as well? The answer to both of those questions will be answered over the remaining weeks of the offseason leading up to Spring Training, but one thing is for sure - if a team is creative enough, they should be able to find a way to address their starting rotation with impact in one form or another.