Off-Season To-Do List: National League East

By: Chris Larson 

Today, we will officially conclude our Off-Season To-Do List series. The series has gone division-by-division and team-by-team to identify three needs or goals that every team around baseball needs to focus on the most this offseason.

The series concludes with a spotlight on the National League East which is a division that could be the most competitive in baseball come 2020 in a lot of different ways. At the very top of the division are the Atlanta Braves, a team that has plenty of talent and young aptitude, to make a significant difference in the division landscape again come next season. Following Atlanta are the reigning World Series Champion, Washington Nationals. The Nationals are likely to be the favorites heading into 2020 and will likely finish ahead of the next team in the division - the New York Mets. Following the Mets are the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that fell short of their expectations last season and one that will look to bounce back come next year, and the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are starting to head in the right direction, but it could be a few more seasons before they are competitive again.

With that being said, here are three things for every National League East team to focus on this offseason.

1. Atlanta Braves (97-65 Record in 2019) 

• Back End of the Bullpen Help - DONE 
• Frontline Catcher - DONE 
• Starting Pitching Depth 

So far this offseason, the Atlanta Braves have been one of the most aggressive teams around baseball. In fact, you could make an argument that they have been the most aggressive under the watchful eye of General Manager and Executive Vice President, Alex Anthopoulos. Anthopoulos was always a very aggressive executive during his tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays and it's good to see him acting in that fashion with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves had a very disappointing end to their postseason run and the organization didn't want to waste anytime mourning on that end. Going into this offseason, Liberty Media who are the primary owners of the Atlanta Braves, said that they would be open to spending a lot more money than last offseason and would be very open to approving big moves. As it stands right now, the Braves have a projected 2020 Opening Day payroll of ($114.2) million dollars which is a hair under last year's Opening Day payroll of ($115.2) million dollars. Dating back to the 2000 regular season, the highest amount the Braves payroll has gone to is ($122.6) million dollars, but if the organization feels as though they can win the National League East next season and have a desire to play deeper into the postseason, they might surpass that amount and head into record territory as a franchise. 

Given their aggressiveness so far this offseason, a lot of what Atlanta needed to do has already been accomplished. The biggest need for the Braves going into this offseason was to fortify their bullpen after they would have lost reliever Darren O'Day to free agency and to provide it with some long-term stability. Luckily, the Braves were able to reunite themselves with O'Day and built up long-term clarity by signing free agent reliever, Chris Martin to a two-year, $14 million dollar deal that will hopefully allow the team to have a better first half of the 2020 season compared to the first half of the 2019 regular season. However, the biggest move in the bullpen was when the Braves inked free agent left-handed reliever, Will Smith to a three-year, $40 million dollar deal that includes a team option for the 2023 regular season. Smith was easily the best reliever on the free agent market and helps to give the Braves another option to close out games on top of current projected closer, Mark Melancon. Beyond the need to fortify the bullpen, the Atlanta Braves also had a need to add either a frontline catcher to pair with Tyler Flowers or perhaps a significant back-up option behind the dish. As a result, the Braves signed free agent catcher, Travis d'Arnaud to a reported two-year, $16 million dollar deal. d'Arnaud is a terrific pickup especially when he is healthy and helps to give the Braves additional offense behind the dish. Tyler Flowers is the more defensive option of the two, but d'Arnaud is a terrific option as well and really adds some solid depth to the catching position for Atlanta. Now that both of those needs have been addressed, it's time for the Atlanta Braves to focus on bolstering the starting rotation. Although Atlanta's starting rotation is full of young, talented arms, the need for a veteran is there and the good news is that there are several different options for the Braves to chose from in free agency. Furthermore, their General Manager, the aforementioned Alex Anthopoulos, has already publicly stated the need to add to the starting rotation and said the team will look at various trade options as well. If there was one free agent that the Braves should really target, free agent left-handed starter, Madison Bumgarner should be the guy. Bumgarner is from North Carolina and would be the perfect guy to mentor the Braves young stable of starting pitchers. 

2. Washington Nationals (93-69 Record in 2019) 

• Reuniting with Starting Pitcher Stephen Strasburg in Free Agency 
• Attempting to Resign Third Baseman Anthony Rendon 
• Replacements in the Event That One or Both of Those Things Don't Happen 

The Washington Nationals, the reigning World Series Champions, have some uncertainty in regards to the makeup of their team this offseason. As it stands right now, the only two infielders on the depth chart for the Washington Nationals are Carter Kieboom at second base and shortstop Trea Turner. There is no one listed at first or third base and that's going to be one of the goals for the Washington Nationals to focus on heavily this offseason. Unfortunately, to reunite with both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon in free agency, it's going to cost the Nationals a lot of money and that's where the hangup could be. Last year, the Washington Nationals had an Opening Day payroll of ($197.2) million dollars, but if the season started right now, the payroll would be a projected ($116.8) million dollars, according to data compiled by Cot's Baseball Contracts. The possibility of keeping Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon is certainly probable, but it will be challenging as nothing is guaranteed in free agency and it's unknown whether or not their ownership group wants to shell out that much money. 

Therefore, if the Washington Nationals had to pick one or the other, they would probably be better off focusing on trying to reunite themselves with starting pitcher, Stephen Strasburg. The starting rotation  isn't nearly as soldified without Strasburg in it and there's question marks surrounding the other options in it outside of their ace, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. Strasburg adds a perfect 1-2-3 punch for Washington and pushes everyone else back a spot which is exactly what the Nationals need. However, with the demand for elite starting pitching this offseason and the number of teams that are in the market for it, trying to sign him to terms that work for both parties could get very complicated. As a result, if the Washington Nationals fail to sign Strasburg, then they need to put the pedal to the metal and attempt to reunite with free agent third baseman, Anthony Rendon. Rendon was a very valuable part of their lineup over the past few seasons and an argument could be made that he might be the best third baseman in all of baseball at the moment. Although he's been very underrated as of late, many teams have started to see the impact that someone like Rendon can have on their lineup and that's where those other teams will come into play. As is the case with Stephen Strasburg, there will be plenty of interest from teams looking to upgrade at third base in Anthony Rendon and the Washington Nationals might have to overpay to ultimately get him to sign on the dotted line. If for some reason the Nationals fail to reunite with Strasburg or Rendon, then they could be in panic mode and must quickly identify fallback options to replace both. Luckily, there are a number of other impactful free agent starting pitchers for the Nationals to chose from and some nice options at third base in free agency as well. Although, Mike Moustakas is now off the board after agreeing to a reported four-year, $64 million dollar deal with the Cincinnati Reds and that is one less option for the Nationals to consider should they lose out on Rendon. Therefore, free agent third baseman, Josh Donaldson could be an option for the Nationals as could someone on the trade market such as Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs or potentially Miguel Andujar of the New York Yankees. Obviously, neither guy is of the caliber of Anthony Rendon, but Kris Bryant is a nice consolation prize and Miguel Andujar is a great option as well, assuming he is healthy and there's no issues with his right shoulder as there have been the past few years. 

3. New York Mets (86-76 Record in 2019) 

• Upgrade at the Back End of the Bullpen 
• Defensive Centerfielder 
• Back of the Starting Rotation Depth 

Once again this offseason, the New York Mets head into it with reports of there being limited payroll flexibility for the organization. Unfortunately for the Mets, that seems to be the case more often than not and there probably won't be a big splash or two made by the organization this offseason, despite that being something that every Mets fan would love to see. If you look at the Mets on paper, the three needs listed above aren't necessarily things that the Mets must address this offseason and they could probably get away with the team as it is currently constructed, but this is the time of year where every team needs to be creative and look at potential areas where they can upgrade. That's exactly what the Mets need to do and they might need to get creative in making some of those upgrades. As it stands right now, if the season started today, the Mets would have a projected payroll of ($174.3) million dollars which is a little over ($15) million dollars higher than last year's Opening Day payroll of ($158.6) million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. If you were to rank that with the rest of baseball, it would give the Mets the fifth highest payroll amount in the game of baseball and it's certainly record territory for the franchise as a whole. The highest paid player for the New York Mets next season will be outfielder, Yoenis Cespedes who will enter the final year of his four-year deal, and earn ($29.5) million dollars. 

Of all of the areas that the Mets could upgrade this offseason, the biggest need is for the organization to find an impact upgrade at the back end of the bullpen. Now, that's definitely not going to be an easy task considering that there's a lack of impactful options left in free agency and given that there's no standout, impact guy available on the trade market. However, following last night's report by Ken Rosenthal about the Milwaukee Brewers potentially being open to trading reliever Josh Hader, Hader could be someone that the Mets try to target on the trade market. Although given the impact that he has had on the Brewers over the past few seasons, the type of numbers that he has put up over that span, and the fact that he has four years of control remaining, it's going to cost the Mets quite a bit to acquire him. For example, if a deal for Josh Hader did go through with the Milwaukee Brewers, Milwaukee would want a major league ready piece back in return plus a high-end prospect most likely. That major-league ready player could be in the form of first baseman Dominic Smith, third baseman/outfielder J.D. Davis, or even highly regarded utility guy Jeff McNeil. If that's too rich for the Mets, then someone like free agent right-hander, Will Harris could be a potential option. Once the bullpen has been addressed, the Mets should focus on obtaining a highly regarded defensive centerfielder. There have already been plenty of reports about this, but current Pittsburgh Pirates centerfielder, Starling Marte would be a fabulous fit for New York. Despite that though, the Mets might not want to add the ($11.5) million dollars to next year's payroll to add Marte. Therefore, the Mets might need to focus on other potential trade options including: Jake Marisnick of the Houston Astros or Manuel Margot of the San Diego Padres. Of those two, Marisnick would probably be the easier one to acquire and while both offer less offensive impact compared to Brandon Nimmo, both would give the Mets a defensive upgrade at the centerfield position. Finally, the last thing the Mets need to focus on this offseason is getting some back of the starting rotation depth. The Mets are set in their 1-4 spots of their starting rotation, but have a clear need for a number five starter and should be able to find someone that is cheap through free agency. Some potential free agents fits include: Alex Wood, Ivan Nova, Rick Porcello or Michael Pineda. All four of those names have some risk attached to them, but could be lightning in a bottle type of signings if they stay healthy and outperform expectations for the Mets. 

4. Philadelphia Phillies (81-81 Record in 2019) 

• Add At Least Two Impactful Starting Pitchers 
• Impact Position Player Group Upgrade 
• Frontline Catcher 

Even after dishing out a thirteen-year, $330 million dollar contract to free agent outfielder, Bryce Harper last offseason and being in the midst of their competitive window, the Phillies still have some serious work to do in certain areas of their roster. Philadelphia is a large market team and their owner, John Middleton certainly isn't afraid to shell out money when and where it is needed the most. Therefore, it would not be a surprise to see them make a significant splash or two this offseason to really upgrade the team and propel them to a position to win the National League East crown next year. In regard to payroll, the Phillies currently have the eighth projected highest payroll in baseball at ($156.4) million dollars which leaves the organization with about ($28) million dollars of spending room before reaching the luxury tax threshold amount of ($208) million for the 2020 regular season. John Middleton has stated that the Phillies would be open to exceeding the luxury tax threshold, but only if they have a clear shot to win the division or are a true World Series contender. The organization simply wouldn't do it if they were competing for a Wild Card spot or were going to finish between second and last place in the division. 

Therefore, addressing some of these needs in a big way is going to be challenging for the Phillies to accomplish this season, but now that the Philadelphia Phillies have non-tendered a couple of players there is more flexibility than before. Prior to tonight's non-tender deadline, it was announced that the Phillies weren't tendering a contract to second baseman Cesar Hernandez and third baseman Maikel Franco. Over the past two seasons, the Phillies have attempted to trade both players, but have been unsuccessful to a large degree. Now that both have been tendered, that will allow the Phillies to use the ($16+) million dollars saved to address other areas of their roster such as the starting rotation. The first target for the Phillies should be free agent right-hander, Gerrit Cole. Cole would add instant credibility to the top of the Phillies starting rotation and really give them another workhorse to pair with Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation. Outside of Cole, there are several other free agent options that the Phillies should target afterwards including left-handers Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel as well as right-handers Zack Wheeler and Tanner Roark. All of those options would be upgrades over the stable of pitchers that the Phillies currently possess and give them some impact for down the stretch come next season. After the Phillies have addressed their starting rotation, they should focus on making an impactful upgrade to their position player group. With the roster flexibility that the Phillies possess, there are a number of different positions the organization could look to upgrade. The Phillies have discussed upgrading their shortstop position with someone like free agent shortstop, Didi Gregorious and shifting current shortstop, Jean Segura to second base. Another option is to keep Segura at shortstop and focus on second base or utilize utility man, Scott Kingery at second base and look for an upgrade at the hot corner. If none of those options sound appealing, then the Phillies could shift their focus to the outfield and attempt to find an upgrade for centerfield. There's really no impactful options in free agency to upgrade centerfield except for Adam Jones so the Philliess could be potential fits for the aforementioned Jake Marisnick of the Houston Astros and Manuel Margot of the San Diego Padres, if the team were to go the trade route. Outside of both of those needs, a frontline catcher is yet another thing that the Phillies could afford to look for this offseason. According to various reports, the organization has already discussed potentially signing catcher, Austin Romine through free agency and that would likely be the best option in free agency. If the Phillies were to shift their attention to the trade market, then they could inquire about Willson Contreras of the Chicago Cubs, James McCann of the Chicago White Sox, Austin Hedges of the San Diego Padres. 

5. Miami Marlins (57-105 Record in 2019) 

• Everyday First Baseman - DONE 
• Add a Veteran Positional Player or Two - DONE 
• Veteran for the Starting Rotation 

Looking ahead to the 2020 regular season, it's going to be another year of setting the eyes towards the future and giving young players as many opportunities as possible to cement themselves for the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are right in the middle of their long-term rebuild plan and are beginning to make progress in regard to identifying what they want their brand to look like when they are contending again in the National League East. Miami Marlins Chief Executive Officer, Derek Jeter and President of Baseball Operations, Michael Hill have done a good job over the past few years of really capturing young talent to add to the farm system and trying to identify a core group of players to move forward with. From a payroll perspective, only the Pittsburgh Pirates have a lower projected payroll for the 2020 regular season, which is set to be ($46.3) million dollars for Miami, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Looking ahead to the future, the Marlins are really set because they only have ($5) million committed to the books for the 2021 regular season and ($500,000) dollars for the 2022 regular season. 

Following the moves that the Miami Marlins today, they have essentially addressed both of their first two needs on the list above. Prior to today, an argument could have been made that the Marlins needed to upgrade their first base position with a veteran presence and the Marlins did that by acquiring Jesus Aguilar, who was made a free agent last week by the Tampa Bay Rays. Aguilar should have a path to an everyday job at that position and could provide the Marlins with some spectacular offense if he is able to rebound to how he performed at the plate during the 2018 regular season with the Milwaukee Brewers. During that season, Aguilar hit: .274/.352/.539 over 566 plate appearances with (35) home runs and (108) RBI. Furthermore, the Marlins addressed the need for adding yet another veteran to the mix this afternoon by acquiring former Baltimore Orioles second baseman, Jonathan Villar. Villar was put on outright waivers this past weekend and the Marlins had initially made a claim, but that original deal ended up falling through. Thanks to some perseverance by Michael Hill & Company, Miami was able to agree to a deal prior to today's non-tender deadline with the Orioles and picked up a solid presence to occupy second base or shortstop with them. When healthy and performing at his best, Villar is a very valuable player and is definitely a veteran given that the 2020 regular season will be his eighth big league season. In terms of veteran presence, the Marlins might elect to keep going and add yet another veteran presence to their team in free agency such as outfielders Avisail Garcia, Nicholas Castellanos, or Kole Calhoun. Besides both of those things, another need for the Miami Marlins is the need to add a veteran to the starting rotation. The Marlins have a very young, up-and-coming starting rotation and it could use a veteran to take some of the workload off of those young starters and to give those pitchers someone to potentially learn more about their craft from. As is the case with other teams that are in need of back end help in their starting rotation, the usual free agents such as: Rick Porcello, Ivan Nova, Alex Wood, and Tanner Roark would fit the bill. Another intriguing fit is right-hander Julio Teheran who formerly pitched with the in-division, Atlanta Braves. Teheran could be the veteran arm at the top of the Marlins starting rotation and has experience pitching in the division which could prove to be very valuable for a young Marlins rotation.