State of the Minnesota Twins Starting Rotation

To say the Minnesota Twins surprised all of baseball last season, would be a huge understatement. Following a disastrous 2016 season, many around baseball believed that Minnesota would find itself rebuilding before contending sooner than later, but that ended up proving to be quite the opposite.

Instead, the Twins clinched the second AL Wild Card spot and played the Yankees in the Wild Card game where their highly successful season came to an abrupt end. Twins fans were left with plenty to celebrate after the season and much of that success can be placed upon the success of the team's young core players. Minnesota finished last season 4th in the American League, with a .334 OBP over 6,261 plate appearances, and concluded the season cumulative team WAR value of 24.2, putting them behind the Indians and 4th in the American League.

In addition, as they always say, pitching wins championships and that was certainly the case for the Twins last season. Sure, their starting rotation ERA of 4.73 in 869.2 is pretty unsightly, but it sure beats the 5.39 ERA that the Twins starters recorded in 2016. Part of that success, can be credited to the likes of Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios as well as the 13.3 defensive rating that Minnesota raked up behind the plate, best for 5th place tied with the Seattle Mariners. Beyond that, you can't forget about the 5 complete games that Santana tossed during the year either.

So knowing that, where does the Twins rotation currently stand? Heading into this winter, General Manager, Thad Levine, and Chief Baseball Officer, Derek Falvey, have made it known that Minnesota is scouring the market for an additional arm. That was up until this afternoon when word came out that Ervin Santana would miss between 10-12 weeks, after having surgery on the middle finger of his right hand.

Now, the need for a starter becomes even more urgent, especially given the fact that Santana played such a critical role in the success of the team last season and is a huge asset to have atop the rotation, and you could even argue that the Twins need to focus on acquiring two starters now instead of just one.

Right now on paper, Ervin Santana, would have been the team's ace, followed by Jose Berrios in the two hole. After that, Minnesota has a lot of sub-par starting pitchers, who to their credit have worked extremely hard to maintain success, but haven't quite found that success at the big league level. The pitchers who make up the 3, 4, and 5 spots within the Twins rotation include: Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, and Phil Hughes.

Last season, that trio of starting pitchers combined for a 5.04 ERA over the span of 309.2 IP. Furthermore, Gibson, Adalberto, and Hughes gave up 49 home runs, recorded 173 earned runs, and struck out 244 batters in that time. For a team with playoff aspirations, the Twins are going to need some more help within the starting rotation beyond what they currently have.

Given that Santana will miss quite a bit of time, Minnesota will need to look to aggressively sign either Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, both of whom they have been connected to this winter at various lengths. If the team can't come to a deal with either Darvish or Arrieta, then Minnesota can turn its attention to Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. Lynn would especially be a nice asset for the Twins even though he had Tommy John surgery in November 2015. From a durability factor, Lynn would be a great addition because any team knows it will always get around 180-200 innings from him and that does wonders for a team that wants to play deep into October.

Assuming the Twins are able to sign one of those top four free agent starting pitchers, Minnesota should look at the next tier and try to add depth from there as well now that Santana will miss time and Kyle Gibson, Adalberto Mejia, and Phil Hughes all struggled last year to varying degrees. From this tier of free agents, the Twins could look at Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman who they've already been connected to, Andrew Cashner, or Jason Vargas. Vargas does have experience pitching within the AL Central after spending the past four seasons with the rival, Kansas City Royals.

Adding a top luxury from the first tier of free agent starting pitchers along with someone from the second tier would add depth and could play out to be a smart decision considering the fact that team's never get through an entire season relying solely on 5 starting pitchers. If Berrios ends up struggling or Gibson, Adalberto, or Hughes goes down with an injury, then that's where someone like Jeremy Hellickson or Andrew Cashner could slot right in.

Currently, FanGraphs projects the Twins to finish second in the AL Central with a 85-77 record. As mentioned before, you can't rely solely on projections because they aren't always the most accurate thing in the world, but they are far more accurate than just assuming what is going to happen. Within that projection, FanGraphs projects Minnesota to have a Run Differential amount of (3) and score an average of 4.96 runs per game. From a Runs Differential perspective, that would put them 13th in the league.

Considering that now is the time for the Twins to capitalize on their window to win, it is urgent that they add a top free agent starting pitcher and now that the news has come out about Ervin Santana, they should consider adding a second free agent starting pitcher from the next tier down as well. It might seem like a silly idea right now, but Minnesota might thank themselves later on down the stretch come September or if an injury happens to pop up.