Evaluating the Dodgers Starting Rotation
To say the Dodgers rotation last year was really good, would be a vast understatement. Forget really good and replace that with phenomenal. In fact, they beat out the Cleveland Indians by having the best rotation ERA in the league at 3.39 over 885.0 IP. In addition, they had the second lowest Bating Average Against (.232) behind only the Washington Nationals and finished with the fewest earned runs (333) over that span.
A major reason why the Dodgers continue to have so much success from a starting pitching standpoint is obviously because of their ace and one of the best starting pitchers of this era, Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw actually missed the end of July and all of August last year with a lower back strain, but was still outstanding posting a 2.31 ERA in 175 IP. Dating back to 2008, since Kershaw first made his MLB debut, he's put up a cumulative 2.36 ERA in 1935.0 IP with 2,120 strikeouts and a Batting Average Against of .206.
It's very difficult to overlook the greatness of Clayton Kershaw from a league standpoint especially since he is arguably one of the Top 5 Dodgers of all time and among the elite of the elite with Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Corey Kluber. However, for an illustrative point, let's see where Kershaw's numbers rank league wide dating back to 2008. Over that span, no one has a lower ERA than Kershaw, only Max Scherzer ranks ahead of him in strikeouts, and he's locked down a 58.0 WAR, the highest among starting pitchers, in that period. Mind as well put him in the Hall of Fame right now!
Beyond Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers also possess a few other veteran starting pitchers as well as some other intriguing young starters. Directly behind Clayton Kershaw is 37-year old left hander, Rich Hill. Hill has had a roller coaster of a career dealing with injuries over that time including a blister on his left middle finger in 2016 as well as last year. With that being said, Hill can be very effective when he is healthy as illustrated by his 3.02 ERA over the past year-and-a-half with Los Angeles along with the 205 strikeouts that he's put up which has helped Hill put up a 10.9 strikeouts-per-9 ratio over that period with a 3.5 WAR.
Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill will lock down the top two spots in the Dodger's rotation with another lefty, Alex Wood, likely occupying the third spot. Since joining the Dodgers, Wood has thrown his curveball and changeup more often, while throwing his fastball less. In fact, in 2016, Wood threw his curveball 29.2% of the time which decreased to 24.1 % of the time last year. On the other hand, Wood threw his changeup 25.4% of the time last year which was an increase from 17.7% during 2016. In addition, he has seen a slight increase in his overall velocity over the past two seasons as well which bares well considering that some have thought that part of his game was starting to head downward.
Beyond those three, the Dodgers have Kenta Maeda, a right-hander, along with left-hander, Hyun-Jin Ryu. Maeda has put together two solid seasons with Los Angeles posting a 3.80 ERA over 310.0 IP with a 1.15 WHIP and 319 strikeouts. Maeda saw an uptick in his home runs-per-9 rate over that time (it was 1.02 in 2016 and 1.47 last year), but also saw a decrease in his walks-per-9 rate. In 2016, he had a walks-per-9 rate of 2.56, while last year he lowered that to 2.28. In terms of Hyun-Jin Ryu, he's also put together an average track record with the organization when he's been healthy. After missing all of the 2015 season recovering from left shoulder surgery and seeing his ERA ballon up to 11.57 over 4.2 IP in 2016, thanks to left elbow tendinitis, Ryu finished last year with a 3.77 ERA in 126.2 IP. In the four seasons with the Dodgers, when he's been healthy, Ryu has a cumulative 3.41 ERA over 475.1 IP with a .258 Batting Average Against and a 1.25 WHIP. The only thing that the Dodgers need to hope for is that he can make it through this season healthy.
Looking at the five starting pitchers mentioned above, Los Angeles is a lot like the Boston Red Sox in that they have a lefty-heavy starting rotation. As highlighted, the only right-hander in the rotation is Kenta Maeda. Now, interpret that as you will, but it wasn't an issue last season and shouldn't be an issue for the Dodgers this coming season either assuming all five can stay healthy and on the field for the entire year.
If the Dodgers do decide that they need to mix up their starting rotation more or find a right-hander to inset into the rotation, they need to look no further than 23-year old, Walker Buehler. Buehler struggled severely at the major league level last season, albeit in a very small sample size, posting a 7.71 ERA over 9.1 IP, but moved up quickly through the minor leagues and had good success at each level. With 5 different minor league teams over 2016 and 2017, Buehler had a Batting Average Against of .199, recorded 131 strikeouts, and gave up 33 home runs, 6 home runs, and 34 walks. While his cumulative hits-per-9 rate over that span was high (6.44) and he had a high walks-per-9 rate at (3.27), the glistening stat is his strikeouts-per-9 rate which was 12.59. Walker Buehler was recognized early by scouts and was honored last season as a MLB.com Organization All-Star which should only boyd well for his success moving forward.
In addition to these 6, the Dodgers also have extra depth with right-hander, Ross Stripling. Stripling, who coined himself the nickname Chicken Strip last year, posted a 3.87 ERA over 174.1 IP, the past two seasons and did extremely well against left-handed hitters last season, posting a 1.62 ERA over 33.1 IP. On top of Stripling, another potential option for the Dodgers starting rotation in the future or if an injury does occur this season is 26-year old, Brock Stewart. Stewart has struggled somewhat at the big league level posting a 4.48 ERA over 62.1 IP the past two seasons, but was another MLB.com Organization All-Star in 2016. In addition, Stewart experienced a lot more success at Dodger Stadium last year, where he posted a 1.38 ERA over 13.0 IP, compared to on the road where his ERA was 4.64 over 21.1 IP.
If that's still not enough depth for the Dodgers, they have yet another option in lefty, Julio Urias. Yes, that makes their starting rotation depth 9 deep, but Urias, who is 21-years of age, is still recovering from shoulder surgery that he had done in June of last year. The injury came on after Urias posted a 3.39 ERA during his rookie season which then ballooned to 5.49 last year. However, in 2016 when he was healthy, Urias recorded 84 strikeouts over 77 IP to give him a 9.58 strikeouts-per-9 rate that year along with a home runs-per-9 rate of 0.58. Although Urias is recovering from injury, there is still a ton of potential considering he is still very young and ripe in terms of development.
Based on this evaluation, it is easy to see why the Dodgers have locked down the NL West every season for the past 5 years and why they made it to the World Series, for the first time since 1988, last year. As they say, successful pitching wins you games and gets you into the postseason, which is a big reason why Los Angeles has put up the track record that they have.
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