Should the Rockies Bulk Up on Pitching and Pursue Lance Lynn?

The Colorado Rockies were another one of baseball's biggest surprise teams last season as they finished the year with a 87-75 record and the second Wild Card spot in the National League. As was the case with the Minnesota Twins, Rockies fans had a lot to celebrate last season after missing out on the playoffs since 2009 and those celebrations quickly came to an end when the Dbacks defeated them, 11-8, in the Wild Card game.

Although the dreams of the Rockies playing deep into Rocktober quickly came to an end, the team still has its sights set on going after a World Series Championship while their window is open. That was more evident than ever when Colorado free agent catcher, Chris Iannetta, to a 2-year, $8.5 million dollar deal and spent $106 million dollars on three bullpen additions in Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Wade Davis. Of course, the amount spent on those three bullpen upgrades was inflated because of where the team plays, but nonetheless, it was something that shocked the industry.

Since those signings, Colorado has been fairly quiet as they continue to monitor both the free agent and trade markets for other potential upgrades to their roster. As it stands right now, the Rockies have a few holes on their roster including at first base and in right field since, Carlos Gonzalez, is still a free agent.

However, when you look past the surface, those two primary holes become much less of a concern taking into consideration the players that would fill those roles on an everyday basis. At first base, if the Rockies weren't to make another addition, they have Ian Desmond, who signed a 5-year, $70 million dollar deal last winter with the team and had a considerable down season last year, along with 23-year old, Ryan McMahon. McMahon played in 17 games last season, after receiving a September callup, and performed at an average level albeit in a small sample size. Over 24 plate appearances, McMahon hit: .158/.333/.211 with 3 hits, 1 RBI, 5 walks, and 5 strikeouts. However, McMahon did fairly well in the minor leagues hitting: .298/.368/.510 over 2,413 plate appearances with 635 hits, 79 home runs, 392 RBI, 227 walks, and 608 strikeouts.

Turning to the outfield, if the Rockies weren't to make another move, they would open the season with the versatile, Ian Desmond, in left field, Charlie Blackmon in centerfield, and Gerardo Parra over in right. As it stands right now, 24-year old, left-handed hitting outfield prospect, Raimel Taipia, would battle for the fourth outfield job with 23-year old, David Dahl. Both Dahl and Taipia have long been highly touted, but that doesn't mean that either one doesn't come with some question marks. Last season, Taipia hit: .288/.329/.425 in 171 plate appearances at the big league level, but struck out in 21.1% of those appearances. On the other hand, Dahl has dealt with a couple of different injuries over the past few seasons including a spleen injury in 2016 and a stress reaction in his ribs which sidelined him for quite a bit of the season last year.

With that being said, the Rockies have always been high on all three prospects: McMahon, Taipia, and Dahl meaning that they could easily compete for a roster spot in Spring Training and have primary everyday positions on the 25-man roster once the season opens. Therefore, if the Rockies were to go down that route, would they benefit from adding another starting pitcher at the top of their rotation? After all, as they say, pitching wins championships and the Rockies currently lack a stopgap option that they know they can always rely on.

That's where you enter Lance Lynn. In Lynn's big league career dating back to 2012 at Coors Field, he has a cumulative ERA of 2.87 over 25.1 IP. Granted, it's a small sample size, but Lynn would be a huge asset for the Rockies from a durability standpoint. Lynn, who had Tommy John surgery in November 2015 and missed all of the 2016 season, has thrown at least 170 innings every season, besides in 2011, when he made his big league debut, and recorded a career high 33 games started value last year.

Furthermore, Lynn has long been one of the more valuable pitchers throughout the league since 2011. Over that span, he has a 3.38 ERA over 977.2 IP with 367 earned runs and 919 strikeouts. Also, he's recorded a 14.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rate over that time and a cumulative strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.49. From a league wide perspective, Lynn has a cumulative left on base percentage of 78.7% dating back to 2014, which is the best among St. Louis Cardinals staring pitchers, and ranks fourth in the MLB over that time.

Over his four pitching appearances at Coors Field, Lance Lynn, has recorded a strikeout rate of at least 14%, his highest occurred in 2015 when he recorded a 25.9% strikeout rate over 8 IP, and his walk rate is extremely low over that period as well. In fact in 2015, Lynn's walk rate over those 8 IP was 0%, while he had a walk rate just under 5% last season and in 2013.

Lynn would be a great addition to the top of the Rockies rotation and could be a true leader for the other young starting pitchers that the Rockies possess. Lynn and Jon Gray could make a valuable 1-2 tandem and while the Rockies would likely have to overpay to get him to sign with the team, it could end up paying off big dividends especially for a team that has its eyes set on contending among an increasingly competitive National League.

The time for the Rockies to compete is now and any addition would be a great one, but a signing of Lance Lynn, would be a tremendous one for Colorado.