Do The Rays Really Need to Rebuild?

Over the past couple of years, this question gets asked continually by baseball fans and the entire industry alike: Are the Tampa Bay Rays going to finally enter rebuild mode this offseason? It's a fair question given the lack of success that the franchise has experienced since 2013 when they lost the ALDS against the Red Sox and given the division they play in. After all, Tampa Bay is one of the smallest markets in the game and they have to compete against two of the largest markets in the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Don't forget about their neighbors to the north either, the Toronto Blue Jays, or the Baltimore Orioles, who always seem to find a way to defy odds.

According to Baseball America's Annual Organizational Talent Rankings, that were released just last week, the Rays currently have the 5th best farm system in the game. That is due in part to the great job that the organization has done with the Amateur Draft. Last year, Tampa Bay had the 11th best farm system in the game according to the same report conducted by Baseball America.

So knowing that the basis of talent is there to be competitive, do the Rays really need to start a massive rebuild at the big league level or are they better off sticking with the big league team they currently have and trying to supplement that core? If you answered that they are better off keeping their current big league roster and trying to supplement it, you are absolutely right. However, there are certain challenges that come along with that line of thinking due to the payroll constraints that the Rays face given the market they play in and the low amount of attendance they experience every year.

According to Spotrac.com, the Rays currently have the fifth lowest payroll in the game heading into this season which is valued at a little over $61.9 million dollars. After benefits and 40-man roster costs are taken into account, that amount is bumped up to about $99.3 million dollars, based on the figures provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts. Over the past 10 seasons, the Rays payroll has never gone above $77 million dollars during the regular season.

Turning back to the big league club, the Rays have developed the notion over the course of the past couple of seasons of being a club built around pitching rather than offense. To illustrate this point, last season the Rays ranked 8th in the league in teams of cumulative ERA (3.97) over the span of 1,445.0 IP. On the other hand, Tampa Bay was 25th in runs scored with (694) over 5,478 at bats and ranked 2nd in strikeouts with (1,538), but were 6th in the league with (228) home runs over that span. Given those stats, it's easy to see that the Rays are either all or nothing at the plate and need to make improvements within their lineup, but how do they do that?

After this coming season, the Rays only have three players under contract in outfielder, Denard Span and Kevin Kiermaier, along with starting pitcher, Chris Archer. Everyone else is either arbitration eligible or will be a free agent in the case of catcher, Wilson Ramos, and shortstop, Adeiny Hechavarria.

Down in the pipeline, the Rays have several intriguing arms that should be capturing attention sooner than later. One of those is 22-year old, right-handed pitcher, Brent Honeywell, who has quickly ascended throughout the minor leagues and become one of the better known prospects throughout the game. In addition to Honeywell, the Rays also have first baseman/left-handed pitching prospect, Brendan McKay (currently the 3rd best prospect in their system) along with right-handed pitcher, Jose De Leon (currently the 7th best prospect) who made his big league debut with the Dodgers before being traded for Logan Forsythe last January.

On the offensive side, Tampa Bay will have a hole after this season when they lose Adieny Hechavarria to free agency, but look no further than their second best ranked prospect, shortstop, Willy Adames. Adames played all of last season in Triple-A and should make an impact on the big league club later this season or at the start of next season. In addition, Tampa Bay also has Christian Arroyo (their 4th best prospect), who came over in the Evan Longoria trade and can play at shortstop and third base, along with outfielder, Jake Bauers, currently ranked as their 6th best prospect. Scouts note that Bauers should have an impact at the big league level sooner than later given his bat skills and how quickly he moved up through the farm.

Even though the Rays traded, Evan Longoria, to the Giants in December and while it might appear as though the Rays should trade other assets such as: starting pitcher Chris Archer, reliever Alex Colome, and even centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier before the season starts, the truth is that the Rays need to stick with the roster they currently have and look to give their prospects playing time on a full-time basis when their ready, while looking to make modest upgrades from outside of the organization. Tampa Bay has done a phenomenal job of building up a nice pipeline of prospects, as evident by their farm system ranking, and that will only help the team moving forward. Sure, they will never be able to spend like their division rivals, the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox, but money doesn't always buy a World Series ring. Just ask the Dodgers.