Projecting the 2018 Season for Brewers Closer Corey Knebel

To say that Corey Knebel played a vital role in the success that the Milwaukee Brewers experienced last season would be a vast understatement. Knebel was easily the team's best reliever and did a phenomenal job in the closer spot which was an issue for Milwaukee heading into the season.

Knebel, who has four years of big league service time under his belt, completed last season with a 1.78 ERA over 76.0 IP and pitched in a career high 76 games. Over that span, Knebel locked down 126 strikeouts resulting in a strikeout-per-9 ratio of 14.92, had a 2.53 FIP along with a 91.9% left-on base percentage and a 1.16 WHIP.

From a league wide perspective, Knebel's ERA of (1.78) last season put him 9th behind Archie Bradley of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the number of games that he appeared in (76) tied him with Juan Nicasio for 3rd place among relievers. Also, Knebel raked up a 2.8 WAR over that span which was good enough for 4th among relievers behind Roberto Osuna of the Toronto Blue Jays.

The reason why Knebel had so much success wasn't because he threw one of his pitches more than the other or increased his velocity tremendously. In fact, Knebel's velocity on his four-seam fastball last year was 97.8 MPH up from 96.1 MPH the year before. Furthermore, his velocity on his curveball was down just a hair from 81.3 MPH in 2016 to 81.0 MPH. During the 2017 season, Knebel threw his fastball 71.4% of the time and averaged 97.4 MPH on it, while throwing his curveball 28.3% of the time and hitting the low 80's, 80.5 MPH to be exact.

Looking ahead to the future, it's a bit difficult to try and project exactly how Corey Knebel will perform based on his big league track record. However, if last year was any indication, he should do just fine, but let's examine his track record in a little more depth.

When Knebel made his big league debut in 2014 with the Detroit Tigers, he finished the season with a 6.23 ERA in 8.2 IP. During that time, he had a hits-per-9 ratio of 11.4, but also recorded a strikeout-per-9 ratio that mirrored that number. Back then, Knebel was throwing his fastball 60.8%, his 36.3%, and his changeup 2.9% of the time.

Come 2015, when Knebel was traded to the Brewers, he faired much better albeit over a much larger sample size. That season, Knebel recorded a 3.22 ERA over 50.1 IP, while giving up 18 earned runs, 17 walks, and locking down 58 strikeouts. His hits-per-9 ratio dipped down to 7.9, while his strikeout-per-9 ratio also went down a bit to 10.4.

Following the 2015 season, Knebel looked like he was well primed to play an integral role moving forward with the Brewers, but struggled come 2016 when he finished the year with a 4.68 ERA over 32.2 IP and recorded a career high walks-per-9 ratio of 4.4. However, he started off the year with a strained left oblique, which put him on the DL for almost two months, and ended up not coming back up to the big league club until July 15th of that year.

Knowing all that, one would assume that Knebel should do just fine this coming season especially when it comes to his strikeout-per-9 ratio and his durability to stay on the field. As it stands right now, FanGraph Steamer projections, expect Knebel to finish the 2018 season with a 3.14 ERA over 65.0 IP, while appearing in 65 games, recording 30 saves, and 4 holds. Granted, as has been mentioned before, projections are just projections, but these computer projections are a better way of trying to gauge how a player might perform versus relying solely on a human based prediction. In addition, FanGraphs projects Knebel to finish the 2018 season with 93 strikeouts over that span, while giving up 47 hits, 7 home runs, 29 walks, and recording 23 earned runs.

In the bigger picture, Knebel will head to Spring Training slated as the Brewers closer and will give manager, Craig Counsell, another late inning weapon on top of left-hander, Josh Hader, and righty, Jacob Barnes. Last season, the Brewers bullpen, which included this trio, finished the year with a 3.83 ERA over 572.2 IP which put them 21st in the league tied with the Tampa Bay Rays. However, Milwaukee addressed that weakness somewhat this winter by inking free agent left-handed reliever, Boone Logan, to a one-year, $2.5 million dollar deal that includes an option for 2019 as well as free agent right-handed reliever, Matt Albers, to a two-year, $5 million dollar deal.

While the future is unknown regarding Corey Knebel and the Brewers, Milwaukee knows that it should be able to count on Knebel having similar success to what he did last year. However, while he might not be able to exactly replicate that success as the league adjusts to him, he should still provide some much needed stability in the closer role and will hopefully help guide the Brewers to the postseason with the help of Josh Vader, Jacob Barnes, and the rest of the bullpen.