Evaluating the Cubs Post Yu Darvish

Earlier this afternoon, the Chicago Cubs came to an agreement with free agent right-handed starting pitcher, Yu Darvish. The deal is pending a physical, but is reported to be six years in length at a guaranteed $126 million dollars and does have the potential to go to $150 million dollars with various incentives mixed in. In addition, the deal includes an opt-out after two seasons and does not come with a trade clause of any kind.

When the news was announced, many around the entire baseball industry were shocked since many expected either the Brewers or Twins to ultimately land him. The Dodgers were in on Darvish until the very end, but according to multiple reports, their offer fell short of what the Cubs offered and the sixth year is what ultimately gave Chicago a leg up on everyone else. It was also reported that the Yankees were in on him, but like the Dodgers, New York would have had to clear some salary space to sign Darvish and be able to stay under the luxury tax of $197 million dollars.

Now that the Cubs have signed Darvish, they are likely done making any more substantial moves until at least the trade deadline in July as their roster looks even better than it did before and they were able to fill the holes that were on their roster.

Before we begin to analyze everything, let's start with a quick recap of what moves the Cubs have made this winter. Chicago started the offseason by inking free agent right-handed starting pitcher, Tyler Chatwood, formerly from the Colorado Rockies, to a three-year, $38 million dollar contract. Following that signing, the Cubs bulked up their starting rotation even more by signing free agent left-handed starting pitcher, Drew Smyly, to a two-year, $10 million dollar deal. Smyly will likely miss all of the coming season as he is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but should provide a nice weapon in the Cubs rotation come 2019.

Following both of those moves, many thought Chicago might be done besides making a small bullpen move, but both Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer provided everyone wrong again. Both Epstein and Hoyer knew they needed help at the back end of their bullpen so they inked free agent right-handed reliever, Brandon Morrow, to a two-year, $21 million dollar contract before going on to sign free agent right-handed reliever, Steve Cishek, just four days later. Cishek signed a two-year, $13 million dollar deal and gave Chicago a reliever who has a unique look and someone that builds up depth at the back end.

After those four signings, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, still didn't feel as though they had made enough additions so they went out and reunited themselves with free agent left-handed reliever, Brian Duensing, on a two-year, $7 million dollar deal. Duensing did a phenomenal job last season with the Cubs, posting a 2.74 ERA over the span of 62.1 IP with a strikeout-per-9 ratio of 8.81 and a left-on base percentage of 84.8%.



Up until this afternoon, everything was fairly quiet in Cubs land, but that doesn't mean that this season is going to be a disappointment by any means or that the Cubs will fall short of their ultimate goal of winning another World Series Championship. Rather, as it stands right now, the Cubs look like the best team in the NL Central and poised to win the division once again assuming that everyone on their 25-man roster stays healthy and the Cardinals and Brewers don't make any other substantial moves which is still possible. After all, Milwaukee was in on Darvish and they remain connected to the three remaining free agent starting pitchers still left on the market: Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb.

Turning back to the Cubs, they started off last season slow finishing the first half with a 43-45 record, but experienced a nice turn around come the second half when they finished with a 49-25 record and a top the NL Central for the second straight season. Part of the reason why the Cubs struggled so much during the first half was, due in part to their pitching staff, who posted a 4.10 ERA over that span. When the second half of the season rolled around and after the team acquired starting pitcher, Jose Quintana, from the cross town, Chicago White Sox, the Cubs pitching staff posted a 3.78 ERA.

Now that the Cubs have strengthened their rotation even more with the addition of Tyler Chatwood and Yu Darvish, they should be able to come out of the gates and perform much better. As it stands right now, Darvish can slot into the rotation behind Jon Lester, while Tyler Chatwood can fill the 4th spot. Both of those moves ultimately move Mike Montgomery to the bullpen as a long man unless he gets traded prior to Opening Day, which he has requested in the past, but that looks unlikely as of right now.

Turning to the bullpen, the Cubs solidified a lot of their bullpen questions with the signings of Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek, and Brian Duensing this winter. While neither of those three relievers are among the most well known in the game, they are all still very good in their own unique way. Over the past four season, Steve Cishek has a stirkeout-per-9 ratio of 9.77, Brian Duensing has a  79.9% left-on base percentage, and Brandon Morrow has pitched to the tune of a 3.14 ERA over 126 IP during that period.

If you combine Morrow, Cishek, and Duensing with the likes of Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., and Mike Montgomery, you have a very solid bullpen. For starters, Mike Montgomery ranks 10th among relievers with a 2.29 ERA over the past four seasons, Carl Edwards Jr. is 8th among relievers with a strikeout-per-9 ratio of 12.62, and Pedro Strop has a 3.02 FIP over that span. Ultimately, there are plenty of weapons for Joe Maddon to turn to late in games and in various situations.

Looking at the offense now, Chicago has done a tremendous job of building up plenty of depth around the diamond and in the outfield thanks to the excellent work the front office did during their rebuilding years by focusing on drafting and building up depth at each level of the organization. A lot of the talent that made the Cubs farm system, stand out as loaded just a few years ago, is now at the big league level and ready to make an immediate impact.

The main staples of the Cubs infield, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, continue to only get better and come along with a solid track record themselves. Since 2014, Anthony Rizzo has a .387 OBP, which ranks fourth among first baseman, while Kris Bryant has a 21.6 WAR over that span, good enough for 2nd among third baseman. In addition, the Cubs have Javier Baez as their primary second baseman, who has a Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric of 14 dating back to 2014, putting him 9th among second baseman, and shortstop, Addison Russell, who has a 47.5 Defensive rating over that span, good enough for 5th place among shortstops.

In regards to the outfield, the Cubs currently are slated to have Kyle Schwarber open the season over in left field, Albert Almora Jr. in center, and Jason Heyward over in right field. It's certainly not the best outfield trio in the National League or the MLB for that matter, but it's still good and comes with a lot of potential moving forward. Heyward, who inked an 8-year deal for $184 million dollars prior to the 2016 season, has won two Gold Globes since joining the Cubs and ranks third among outfielders over that span with a Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 27.1.

Albert Almora Jr., who made his official MLB debut in June of 2016, hit: .292/.330/.448 over 440 at bats since making his debut and is still only 24 years old meaning that he has the potential to take some significant strides in the coming seasons as he nears his peak. In addition, Kyle Schwarber, who missed substantial time in 2016 recovering from a torn ligament in his left knee, launched 30 home runs last season and recorded a .467 slugging percentage. Schwarber, who turns 25 next month, is just starting to reach his peak like, Albert Almora Jr., and should continue to only get better with time.

Behind the plate, the bulk of the catching time looks to go to, Wilson Contreras, who is well on his way to becoming one of the best catchers in the game and has big aspirations as illustrated by his comments this offseason. Contreras compared himself to both Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. Over the past two seasons, Contreras has launched 33 home runs, record 109 RBI, and has a .356 on-base percentage. Behind Contreras, Victor Caratini looks to be the Cubs secondary catcher. As is the case with Contreras, Caratini is young, he will turn 25 in August, but was named an All-Star on a couple of different occasions during his minor league career and projects to make a big impact at the major league level.

For all of the work that the Cubs have done this winter, their front office needs to be complimented for making an already great team even better. Although the team lost Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency, Chicago still has a tremendous starting rotation, a bullpen that can compete with the best of them, and an offense headlined by the two franchise cornerstones in, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. With a roster like that, the Cubs should be on their way to playing in October once again this season and vying for potentially their second World Series Championship in just three years.