Paul DeJong Extension: Little Risk, Potentially High Reward for the Cardinals

This morning, the St. Louis Cardinals announced that they had agreed to a 6-year, $26 million dollar extension with middle infielder, Paul DeJong, the largest extension for a player with less than one-year of service time, in MLB history. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the deal also includes a $12.5 million dollar option for 2024 and another $15 million dollar option for 2025. If both options are exercised, then the deal is essentially worth $53.5 million dollars.

Paul DeJong became a rookie phenom last season and really burst on the scene from an offensive standpoint to make a name for himself. DeJong finished last season hitting: .285/.325/.532 over 443 plate appearances with 119 hits, 25 home runs, 65 RBI, 21 walks, and 124 strikeouts. While DeJong also developed the reputation of becoming a strikeout hitter to some degree last year, you still have to like the makeup he has especially given that he still hasn't reached his full peak yet at 24 years of age.

In addition, it's important to look at DeJong's minor league track record as well which hints to the potential that he could have throughout the course of this extension. Through 3 seasons in the minor leagues over the course of 1,034 plate appearances, DeJong hit: .283/.347/.496. In that time, he had 263 hits, 44 home runs, 148 RBI, 16 stolen bases, 78 walks, and 242 strikeouts.

While DeJong makes a name for himself offensively, he does struggle to some degree defensively. Through 1,567.2 innings in the minor leagues, DeJong has a fielding percentage of .938 and helped turn 27 double plays in that time, but committed 28 errors. At the big league level last season at second base and shortstop, DeJong put up a .975 fielding percentage over 747.1 innings, while turning 56 double plays and committing 9 errors.

After finishing last season 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting, Paul DeJong is going to have a lot riding on him heading into this season and especially now that an extension has been agreed too. However, considering that there is still the potential that he can turn into a much better player, there is a lot to like about this deal especially from a team perspective.

For instance, let's consider a scenario where DeJong quickly becomes the next best shortstop and ends this coming season within the conversation of the Top 10 Shortstops in the game currently. Assuming that happens, DeJong is going to be very affordable for the Cardinals given that he will make on average about $4 million dollars through the course of the next 6 seasons, give or take a little each year. Rather than having to go intro arbitration, the Cardinals played it smart by locking him up now and potentially saved themselves a bunch of money later on down the road.

On the other hand, that doesn't mean that there isn't any risk involved with this extension or that everything is going to turn out to be peaches and cream either. Given the concern about DeJong from a defensive standpoint and the reputation that he has developed as being a high strikeout hitter, there is always the potential that things could go south and the Cardinals find themselves stuck with an unproductive player that ultimately ends up hurting their chance at winning more than helping it. While it wouldn't be the end of the road if that happened, simply because DeJong would be affordable and teams would be attracted to that because they wouldn't need to pay a lot for him, it's still something to consider.

Beyond the good and the potential risk from a team perspective, another good thing is that it gives the Cardinals a solid building block in the middle infield moving forward. Kolten Wong, who is the Cardinals primary second baseman, is locked up through 2020 and has a team option for the 2021 season. That means that both Wong and DeJong can develop into one of the games next great middle infield duos assuming both stay healthy and continue to work on their weaknesses together. Both Wong and DeJong have a ways to go before they can be in that conversation with Altuve & Correa, Ramirez & Lindor, and Murphy & Turner, but there's still potential for it to happen.

While this deal will be met with criticism from some parties, it should be celebrated overall even though it does involve a bit of risk. There is a higher chance of Paul DeJong only continuing to get better and developing into one of the top shortstops in the game than there is of him regressing and bringing very little value to the Cardinals roster moving forward.

For now, DeJong needs to just go out to the field everyday, ready to work, and continue developing his craft, while the rest of us sit back and see how this ends up turning out. Paul DeJong may not be one of the most well-known names in the game right now, but who knows what will happen in a few years.