Dbacks Biggest X-Factor This Year: Steven Souza Jr.

The Arizona Diamondbacks ended last season as one of the surprise teams in the National League capturing the first Wild Card spot and finishing 6 games ahead of the, Colorado Rockies. At the start of last year, many around the industry actually expected the Diamondbacks to be a lot worse than they really were and were anticipating a rebuild come the trade deadline.

Now that the Diamondbacks have put themselves back on the map as a true contender, the expectations heading into this year are much higher and you have to account for the fact that Arizona plays in what will likely be the best division in baseball this season. Not only is there the Dodgers, who have won the division for five straight years, there is also the Colorado Rockies, who have a talented roster, and the San Francisco Giants, who have vastly improved their roster this winter. In addition, don't overlook the San Diego Padres who will be better quicker than many people think and will only get better as the regular season wears on.

Given that, it is extremely important that the Diamondbacks build upon the success from last season and make themselves relevant once again when September rolls around. A lot of the Dbacks success this year will fall on the shoulders of Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Archie Bradley, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and the newest member of the team, outfielder Steven Souza Jr.

Arizona acquired the outfielder from the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-team trade that also included the New York Yankees and he is coming into the season with a big void to fill. That void was left when Arizona lost J.D. Martinez to the Boston Red Sox in free agency. Not only was J.D. Martinez a huge factor as to why the Diamondbacks made the postseason last year, he was also a lethal bat to go along with Paul Goldschmidt in the heart of the batting order.

With Steven Souza Jr. now in the fold, Arizona has added a decent outfielder to the picture who is coming off of a career offensive year. Souza Jr. finished last season hitting: .239/.351/.459 over the span of 617 plate appearances with 30 home runs, 79 RBI, 84 walks, and 179 strikeouts. In addition to the offense, Souza Jr. put up a 4.2 WAR last season and had a Offensive Wins Above Replacement (oWAR) rate of 3.5.

Furthermore, expanding the sample size to over three years from 2015 to 2017, Souza Jr. recorded a walk percentage of 10.7% over 1,511 plate appearances, which ranks 9th among right fielders over that period of time. That alone helps to illustrate how disciplined Souza Jr. can be at the plate. In addition, over the past three seasons, Souza Jr. has 35 stolen bases, which ties him with Adam Eaton of the Washington Nationals, for 4th place among right fielders.

Building off that last point, now that Arizona has Souza Jr along with Jarrod Dyson in their lineup, there are two legitimate stolen base runners. Arizona has always been a team that's been aggressive on the base paths thanks to first base coach/baserunning guru, Dave McKay. McKay has taught the fundamentals of base stealing since arriving in the desert three years ago and has really helped to make that an established part of the team's culture.

From a fielding perspective, Souza Jr. has a career fielding percentage of .981 over 3,104.2 career big league innings. Taking it a step further, over the past three years, Souza Jr. has a Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 7.5, good enough for 6th among right fielders over that time period, and has recorded 6 Defensive Runs Saved. However, all of that has resulted in a negative defensive rating of (-8.1) which puts him 8th among right fielders dating back to 2015.

While Souza Jr. won't always wow you with his defensive ability, the Diamondbacks are fine taking a risk with him considering the fact that they had J.D. Martinez in right field for the second half of last season, who also hasn't established a reputation of being a very good defender during his big league career. With that being said, Souza Jr.'s defensive rating of (-8.1) the past three seasons is way better compared to J.D. Martinez who has a defensive rating of (-34.2) over that same period.

Looking ahead to this season, Souza Jr. projects to be the Diamondbacks number 5 hitter and can also leadoff during certain matchups. Last season batting leadoff with Tampa Bay, Souza Jr. hit: .279/.364/.481 over the span of 104 at bats. As the Rays number 5 hitter, Souza Jr. hit: .225/.343/.440 over 325 at bats.

Regardless, Souza Jr. gives the Diamondbacks another legitimate offensive force within their lineup and has a lot riding on his shoulders this year from a team perspective especially as Arizona looks to enter the playoff picture once again. If Souza Jr. is able to perform to expectations, then the Diamondbacks offense will look really good with A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Jake Lamb, and Paul Goldschmidt. If not, then Arizona might be in a bit of trouble in terms of being a potential contender and making noise among a tough NL West division.