Evaluating the Eugenio Suarez Extension

Earlier this morning, the Cincinnati Reds confirmed that they had signed infielder, Eugenio Suarez, to a 7-year, $66 million dollar contract extension. The extension also includes an option year for 2025, which if exercised, would make the entire extension worth just under $80 million dollars.

Eugenio Suarez, who is currently 25, really burst onto the scene offensively last year ending the season batting: .260/.367/.461 over 632 plate appearances. In that span, Suarez slugged 26 home runs, recorded 82 RBI along with 84 walks, and whiffed 147 times. All of that accumulated for a 3.7 WAR last season and an Offensive Wins Above Replacement (oWAR) amount of 3.2.

With Suarez now a cornerstone among the Reds infield, it is a bit difficult to tell exactly what Cincinnati plays on doing, but you can sort of read between the lines as to what will happen in the future. Looking at the Reds current depth chart, Cincinnati has Scooter Gennett penciled in at second base, Jose Peraza at shortstop, and Suarez over at third. However, the Reds have third base prospect, Nick Senzel, quickly knocking on the door for an everyday spot on the 25-man roster which will cause Cincinnati to have to make a decision eventually on how their infield will be configured.

The Reds could elect to try and trade Scooter Gennett down the road, move Peraza over to second, have Suarez at shortstop, and Senzel at third or another possibility would be to try and move, Jose Peraza, and have an infield consisting of Gennett at second, Suarez at shortstop, and Senzel at the hot corner. Regardless of whatever way you try to interpret this deal, it is one that really didn't clarify the dysfunctionality of the Reds roster and makes you wonder if they should have invested the money elsewhere.

As we have seen in the past with extensions from the Reds, they don't always turn out to be that great over the long haul. Take for instance starting pitcher, Homer Bailey, who inked a six-year deal, worth $105 million dollars and one that includes an option for 2020, prior to the start of the 2014 regular season. So far to this point, Bailey has not lived up to expectations mainly because he's been injured and when he is on the mound, he's been awful, considering his cumulative 6.40 ERA over 125.1 IP, the past three seasons.

Besides Homer Bailey, another extension that hasn't worked out yet for the Reds is the four-year, $28 million dollar extension they rewarded to catcher, Devin Mesoraco, three years ago. Since signing that extension, Mesoraco has only played in 96 games the past three seasons, thanks to hip surgery that put him on the shelf in 2015 and a torn labrum that Mesoraco had in his left shoulder, during the 2016 season.

In addition to Homer Bailey and Devin Mesoraco, the Reds also have first baseman and likely future Hall of Fame, Joey Votto, signed to an extension through his age 40 season. To date, the Votto extension has been extremely valuable, but who knows what will happen as Votto continues to age and nears the end of that deal.

Going back to Eugenio Suarez, while he might have had a stellar season last year, wouldn't the Reds have been better off potentially investing that money in their starting rotation or bullpen instead? After all, the Reds pitching staff has not had an ERA better than 4.30 the last three years and are coming off a season in which they had the second worst pitching staff ERA in the league. For knowledge sakes, the Reds finished last season with a 5.17 ERA over 1,430.0 IP and recorded the second most earned runs over that span (821) to be exact.

In addition, a 7-year deal is a huge gamble, especially for a player who is not a 5-tool player and strikeouts quite often every year as illustrated by his 463 career strikeouts over 1,934 plate appearances, dating back to 2014 when Suarez made his MLB debut. Thats good enough for a 23.9 strikeout percentage and, puts him third among third baseman, over that time.

Furthermore, if Suarez ends up not delivering here in two or three seasons, what are the Reds going to do? How are they going to be able to unload that contract if no other team sees him as a fit? Being the smallest market team in the MLB, like Cincinnati is, they have to be extremely careful with how much money they invest into certain players and this is a situation of just that. The deal could end up turning south quickly and make a 7-year deal seem like a true albatross in the future.

While some will argue with this evaluation of the deal, you can't argue with the fact that Suarez has quietly become one of the best third baseman in the league, but you have to wonder if that will continue or if Suarez will ever experience a tremendous amount of regression here in a few years. In addition, you have to wonder if the Reds would have been better off investing that money in another area of their 25-man roster and using Suarez as a potential trade chip to bring back a nice haul.

At this point, all we can do is let Suarez play and let time tell us how this deal ends up working out, in the long run.