Trade Deadline Premier: Overview of the American League East

 

Continuing on with the Trade Deadline Premier Series, the focus today will be on the American League East. The AL East is one of the more exciting divisions in all of baseball with four legitimate teams that could win the division crown. The Tampa Bay Rays started the season off in dominating fashion. However, they concluded the first half of the season on a seven-game losing streak. 

Given that the August 1st Trade Deadline is quickly approaching, here is a look at all five American League East teams and where they stand leading up to it. Additionally, needs for each team will be identified below as well. 

Buyers: 

Tampa Bay Rays (58-35, 2 Game Lead) 

As mentioned previously, the Tampa Bay Rays started the 2023 regular season off in dominating fashion. With current odds of making the playoffs at 99.6% and a 19.5% chance of hoisting the World Series trophy at the start of play today, the Rays seem like a guaranteed lock to make the postseason. At the beginning of the season, one of the major selling points for the Rays was their starting rotation which consisted of Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs as the top three. Injuries ended up unfortunately derailing that trio from staying on the mound together. Both Baz and Springs went to the 60-Day Injured List in April and eventually it was announced that Springs unfortunately needed Tommy John surgery. Earlier this month, fellow starter Drew Rasmussen hit the 60-Day Injured List  and it was later reported that he would be out through the middle of the 2024 season. Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan is currently on the 15-Day Injured List due to a back issue. However, Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash believes that McClanahan will be able to come off this coming Sunday against the Kansas City Royals and make that scheduled start. 

To date, offseason acquisition Zach Eflin has been able to stay healthy and has been very effective for the Rays putting up a 3.25 ERA over 17 starts with a 0.99 WHIP. As is the case with Tampa Bay every season, pitching is the primary characteristic that makes them dominant and this season is no exception despite the significant injuries outlined above. Within the bullpen, closer Pete Fairbanks has performed to the tune of a 1.56 ERA and has nine saves on the year. In addition, Colin Poche has been very effective as well in a seventh and eighth inning role. Going into play today, Poche has held righties to a .188 batting average with 16 strikeouts and has a .161/.282/.290 slash line in situations with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP). 

Offensively, the Rays have plenty of talent around the diamond which helps to make them one of the best teams in the American League and baseball as a whole. At one point, the Rays were on a seven runs scored pace per game. Absolutely incredible! The primary anchor of the offensive core is shortstop Wander Franco who has played to the level of a 4.4 WAR so far. Franco, who inked an 11-year, $182 million extension in November 2021, continues to show why he is a face of the franchise type of player with a tremendously high level of talent. First baseman Yandy Diaz has been a key cog leading the team in hits (96) and On-Base Percentage (.408) over a sample of 297 at bats. Beyond that, outfielder Randy Arozarena who put on a show at the Home Run Derby in Seattle this past week, has a team leading 58 RBI and centerfielder Jose Siri leads in home runs (16). 

Needs: The Tampa Bay Rays will likely be in the market for a starting pitcher that can slot into the middle-to-back end of the starting rotation leading up to the Trade Deadline. It might not be the biggest name available in the market, but someone that can provide some stability and be an innings eater down the stretch. Additionally, the Rays will likely add bullpen depth to have heading into September and come October. Even the Rays, a team that excels at pitching at a high level, can never have enough depth! 

Baltimore Orioles (54-35, Two Games Back of First Place, First AL Wild Card) 

Although there are four legitimate teams in the American League East that can win the division, if there was one team that the Tampa Bay Rays had to watch out for down the stretch it is the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore is coming off the month of June with a 13-11 record and hold a 6-3 record so far this month. After surprising all of baseball last year down the stretch, it is no longer a surprise that the Orioles have been able to dominate to the degree that they have on the field. On the whole, at the time of this blog post, Baltimore ranks in the middle-of-the-pack with a pitching staff cumulative ERA of 4.14 and rank sixth in strikeouts (821) in the American League. More specifically on the season, the Orioles starting rotation has a 4.48 ERA and have held opposing teams batters to a .256 average. Right-hander Tyler Wells currently anchors down the front of the rotation and leads the team with a 3.18 ERA along with 103 strikeouts over 18 games. Additionally, offseason acquisition Kyle Gibson has provided some stability behind Wells. Although, Gibson has allowed 56 earned runs and ten home runs over 109 and 2/3 innings of work to date. 

Switching to the Baltimore Orioles bullpen, it is easy to say that it has been much more effective than the starting rotation. Heading into play today, the Orioles bullpen has the fifth lowest ERA (3.68) in the American League and rank second in strikeouts (373). A significant reason why Baltimore has had such an effective bullpen is due to right-handers Yennier Cano and Félix Bautista. Cano, who was acquired from the Minnesota Twins prior to the Trade Deadline last year, has held right-handers to a .156/.192/.211 slash line with 26 strikeouts. Additionally, Bautista has pitched to the tune of a 1.07 ERA over 39 appearances with 23 saves and 84 strikeouts. In the past there have been postseason teams such as the Kansas City Royals in 2015 and Chicago Cubs in 2016 that have completely dominated from a bullpen perspective. The same holds true for the Baltimore Orioles assuming they make the postseason. 

Offensively, the Orioles have some serious star power around the diamond especially behind the plate in catcher Adley Rutschman who put on a spectacle at the aforementioned Home Run Derby in Seattle. As a unit, the Orioles offense ranks fifth in the American League in team OPS (.747), seventh in home runs (107), fourth in RBI (429), and sixth in On-Base Percentage (.324). Outfielders Austin Hays and Anthony Santander have been the primary driving forces for Baltimore at the plate. Additionally, third baseman Gunnar Henderson has performed at a high level with a .246/.342/.455 slash line which translates to a 2.3 WAR overall. 

Needs: Over the next few weeks and days heading to the Trade Deadline, the Baltimore Orioles need to focus on trading for a front-line starting pitcher. There should be several legitimate options available including Lucas Gilotio and Lance Lynn of the Chicago White Sox, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery of the St. Louis Cardinals, and potentially Marcus Stroman of the Chicago Cubs. If Baltimore were to elect to acquire a mid-rotation starting pitcher instead Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs, Michael Lorenzen of the Detroit Tigers, or Trevor Williams of the Washington Nationals could all fit the bill. Regardless, the Orioles either need to add a legitimate front-line starting pitcher or two mid-rotation arms prior to the August 1st Trade Deadline.

Toronto Blue Jays (50-41, Seven Games Back of First Place, Third AL Wild Card) 

To date, the Toronto Blue Jays have seemingly underwhelemed to a large degree considering many of the preseason projections. Granted, a lot of that has to do with the struggles of Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah, which resulted in the 25-year old being sent down to the minor leagues in June to work on mechanics, as well as the underperformance of some key players including outfielders George Springer and Daulton Varsho. Last offseason, a primary goal for Toronto was to create a more well-rounded lineup against opposing left and right-handed pitchers which has been accomplished. Going into play today, the Blue Jays have a 57.6% chance of making the postseason and are coming off a month of June in which they posted a 16-11 record. Prior to the All-Star Break, Toronto finished the first half with a 6-4 record and currently have a positive (34) Run Differential on the season. 

Outside of the struggles regarding Alek Manoah, the Blue Jays starting rotation has still been effective overall. Currently, the Blue Jays starting rotation has the sixth best ERA (3.98) and the third most strikeouts (522) in the American League. Right-handers Kevin Gausman and José Bérrios have been the two pillars within the rotation that have carried a lot of the weight. Gausman currently leads all of baseball with 19 games started and has a 3.03 ERA, while Bérrios has made 18 starts on the year and has a 119 ERA+ along with a 1.13 WHIP. Chris Bassitt, who Toronto inked to a three-year, $63 million contract this past offseason, has struggled at various times so far this season. Over the last month, opposing teams hitters are batting .297/.368/.436 against the 34-year old right-hander. In the bullpen, closer Jordan Romano is tied for the lead in saves (26) in all of baseball with Camilo Doval of the San Francisco Giants and Alexis Diaz of the Cincinnati Reds. 

As a unit, the Blue Jays currently rank third in hits (810), ninth in RBI (388), and seventh in team OPS (.741) among American League ranks. First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette have done a lot of the heavy lifting all season long at the plate. Vlad Jr. leads the team in RBI with 58, while Bichette leads the team in every other offensive category with a .317/.346/.496 slash line overall. Third baseman Matt Chapman has also been very valuable to the team on both sides of the ball registering 84 hits, 28 doubles, one triple, 12 home runs, 39 RBI, 40 walks, and 103 strikeouts over 324 at bats which has resulted in a team leading 3.6 WAR. 

Needs: Depending on the performance of aforementioned starting pitcher Alek Manoah over the next few weeks will depend on the needs for the Blue Jays leading up to the Trade Deadline. Manoah did very well in his first start back against the Detroit Tigers last Sunday, but still needs to prove he can be effective over his next few outings. If Manoah performs as expected, then adding an impactful starting pitcher will be less of a need for Toronto prior to August 1st. Beyond that, adding another bullpen arm or two should be a priority for the Blue Jays especially for down the stretch in a competitive AL East. 

New York Yankees (49-42, Eight Games Back of First Place, One Game Back of Third AL Wild Card)

The New York Yankees begin the second half of the season with their eyes set on making it back to the postseason following last year's loss to the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series. On the year, the Yankees have underwhelmed to a large degree amid a very competitive division and landscape in the American League. Although, there have been certain bright points along the road including when New York posted a 34-24 to start the season in March, April and May combined. Since June 1st, the Yankees have a 15-18 record and hold an 11-14 record in one-run games. On the pitching front, the Yankees pitching staff has performed to a high level putting up a 3.80 ERA on the season with an Opponent Batting Average Against of .234. That puts the Yankees as a Top Five staff in both of those statistical categories. 

In the starting rotation, right-hander Gerrit Cole is once again pitching at a dominant level in his fourth season with the team. On the year, Cole has a 2.85 ERA over 19 starts with 123 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP. Cole is on track to be a leading candidate to win the American League Cy Young Award. Outside of Cole, the rest of the starting rotation has struggled significantly. Granted, Carlos Rodon returned from the Injured List prior to the All-Star Break which will be a significant boost for New York and Clarke Schmidt has been better over the last month. Over that span, Schmidt has a 3.43 ERA over four starts. Although, the bigger story for the Yankees pitching staff has been in the bullpen as it has been one of the most dominate in the MLB. To date, Yankees relievers have combined for the second best ERA (3.11) in all of baseball and have held opposing batters to a .220 average. Clay Holmes has been one of the most dominate relievers in baseball allowing nine runs, while recording 47 strikeouts and 10 saves over 38 appearances. Michael King has also been an opposing force in relief. On the year, left-handers are batting .148/.233/.235 against King and the right-hander has held hitters to a .200 average in high-leverage situations. 

Switching over to the offense, it has been the one area that the Yankees have severely struggled in. Going into play today, the Yankees currently have the third worst team OPS (.672) in the American League since June 1st and have the worst Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) (.240) in all of baseball over that sample. Last week, it was announced that Sean Casey was hired to be the new hitting coach for the team and that should make a significant impact on those metrics. Additionally, outfielder Aaron Judge should be returning from the Injured List although it might not be until some point later on here in the second half. 

Needs: For the New York Yankees, the focus should be on adding a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher prior to August 1st along with starting pitching depth. New York knows they are able to count on both Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, but after that there is a lot of uncertainty. Additionally, the Yankees are in need of a leftfield bat that can be impactful offensively. Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres would be the ideal fit for New York. However, there is absolutely no guarantee that the San Diego Padres will trade Soto. Other possible and more logical fits include Brendan Donovan of the St. Louis Cardinals, Ian Happ of the Chicago Cubs or Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics. 

Undecided:

Boston Red Sox (48-43 Record, Nine Games Back of First Place, Two Games Back of Third AL Wild Card) 

Looking at the American League East as a whole, the four teams highlighted above are guaranteed to be buyers prior to the Trade Deadline. However, the one wild card in the division is the Boston Red Sox. While Boston should highly consider being a seller, the team finished the first half of the season with an 8-2 record and on a five-game win streak. The Red Sox have certainly been a streaky team through the first part of the 2023 regular season and that should keep the hope alive in Boston that the team has a chance to contend. Although, there are certain areas of concern particularly on the pitching front that should cause for there to be some concern. As a staff, the Red Sox rank tenth in ERA (4.33) and have the tenth fewest strikeouts (768) and sixth most earned runs (387) among American League ranks. The brightest spot within the starting rotation for Boston has been Brayan Bello who has made 14 starts - eight of which have been quality starts and leads the team with 80 innings pitched. In that sample, the 24-year old right-hander has a 3.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In his first full season with the big league club, Bello has been very dominant. 

In the bullpen, Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen have been the biggest two pillars. Martin currently leads the team with 14 holds and has registered a 1.57 ERA over 30 appearances. In that sample, Martin has held opposing right-handed hitters to a .200/.222/.217 slash line with 14 strikeouts. Pitching primarily in an eighth inning role, Martin has given the Red Sox a lot of value during the first year of the two-year, $17.5 million deal the 37-year old inked with Boston last offseason. Another offseason acquisition, Kenley Jansen has also added some much needed stability within the bullpen for the Red Sox. The All-Star has 19 saves along with a 3.23 ERA on the season. 

Offensively, the Red Sox have excelled. The offense is the primary selling point for Boston and if the team elects to sell, Boston figures to have several contending teams interested in the likes of Designated Hitter Justin Turner, outfielder Adam Duvall, and shortstop Kiké Hernández. Going into play today, the aforementioned Justin Turner leads the team with 96 hits over 333 at bats. Although, the two primary key cogs for the Red Sox offense have been third baseman Rafael Devers and another offseason acquisition outfielder Masataka Yoshida. Devers currently leads the team with 20 home runs and 70 RBI, while Yoshida has a .316/.382/.492 during his first full season playing in the MLB. Outfielder Alex Verdugo has provided the most value to the Red Sox with a 3.2 WAR. Verdugo has combined for a .817 OPS on the year which is the sixth highest OPS among qualified American League rightfielders. 

Needs: Depending on what course the Boston Red Sox decide to take will depend on their needs prior to the August 1st Trade Deadline. This could be one team that elects to do some buying and selling with an eye on trading pending free agents, while getting players and prospects in return for the future. If Boston decides to go all-in and buy, the focus would likely be on improving the pitching staff both in the starting rotation and bullpen. Although, there is also the possibility that Boston decides to hold and ride out the remainder of the 2023 regular season with it's current group of players in hopes of being a contender amid a tough American League.