Five Offensive Trade Candidates for 2023 Deadline

 

With less than two weeks to go until the August 1st Trade Deadline, the focus still remains on which players will and won't be available prior to the final bell. A lot of attention has been given to the pitching side of the equation and rightfully so. However, the Trade Deadline also provides teams and General Managers alike the opportunity to improve their offense for October. 

In some cases, teams have a primary position that they might elect to target to fulfill the need for added offense. Meanwhile, other teams have a general need to add a bat, but don't necessarily have a particular position where they would like to insert the addition. 

Although there may not be any blockbuster headline offensive players available at this year's Trade Deadline, there are still some impactful players that should be available. Here are five players that have the greatest chance of being moved over the next 13 days. 

1. 3B Jeimer Candelario  

Jeimer Candelario of the Washington Nationals is likely going to be the name to watch the most on this list. Candelario who signed a one-year, $5 million contract with Washington last offseason will be a free agent at season's end. As such, he would be a rental offensive player for the acquiring team, but does have some impressive offensive stats behind his name. Through 88 games this season, Candelario is batting .260/.336/.480 with 86 hits, 27 doubles, two triples, 14 home runs, 45 RBI, 30 walks, and 77 strikeouts. As a primary third baseman, Candelario does have experience playing at first base as well as at the Designated Hitter position. According to FanGraphs, going into play today among third baseman with at least 250 plate appearances, Candelario ranks seventh in wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) (117) and seventh (.214) in Isolated Power (ISO). 

There should be a handful of contenders that consider adding Candelario to their offensive mix including the Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins. Of those potential fits, the Marlins could be the best fit of all. Miami currently has the 24th lowest On-Base Percentage (.298) and the third lowest wRC+ (69) among all of baseball at the third base position. 

2. 1B/OF Cody Bellinger 

The Chicago Cubs have still not indicated whether they plan to buy, sell or hold at the upcoming August 1st Trade Deadline. At the time of publication of this blog, the Cubs currently have a 28.4% chance of making the postseason. However, industry expectation is that Chicago will look to trade a handful of assets and continue to restock for the future. With that being said, first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger is expected to be available. After being non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers last November, Bellinger signed a one-year, $17.5 million contract with the Cubs in December 2022. The deal also includes a $12.5 million mutual option for the 2024 season. Given the struggles that Bellinger had in Los Angeles, the 28-year old has performed much better in Chicago so far. Heading into play today, Bellinger has a .308/.365/.523 slash line over 266 plate appearances. The former National League Most Valuable Player in 2019, Bellinger also shines on the defensive side of the ball and ranks in the 79th Percentile in Arm Strength according to Baseball Savant. 

Considering the number of teams that have a need to add an impactful offensive and defensive player, there should be plenty of interest in Bellinger. Some potential fits include the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Guardians. However, the best fit may be with the Houston Astros who could play Bellinger at first base, DH or in the outfield. The Astros, who are currently without Yordan Alvarez, could use the added offense down the stretch as they look to win the American League West once again. 

3. OF Randal Grichuk 

As things stand right now, the Colorado Rockies sit in fifth place in the National League West with a 37-58 record and a National League worst -143 Run Differential. On pace to finish with the worst record in the NL, the Rockies are gearing up to be sellers over the 13 days. One of the primary pieces that Colorado has to sell to other teams is outfielder Randal Grichuk. Grichuk missed the first 27 games this season recovering from sports hernia surgery. Additionally, the soon-to-be 32-year old will hit free agency at the end of the season. Since returning from the Injured List, he is batting .300/.364/.473 with a 115 OPS+ and 24 extra-base hits over 255 plate appearances. So far this season, Grichuk has become much more of a pull hitter to left field with an overall pull percentage of 45.2% this season compared to 33.9% in 2022. As someone who has the ability the play all three outfield positions, there is plenty of potential value available for the acquiring team.

The acquiring team for Grichuk likely views him as someone who could fill the DH position on a part-time basis and play in right field the remainder of the time against left-handers. Around the league, the aforementioned San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers could benefit from an addition of this magnitude. Although, among outfield ranks around the league from a wRC+ perspective, the Minnesota Twins could be the best fit for Grichuk. Minnesota currently has the fifth lowest wRC+ value (83) against lefties with a .268 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) which ranks second lowest only to the New York Yankees in the outfield.

4. SS Paul DeJong 

Earlier this week, St. Louis Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak indicated that the team will focus on "pitching, pitching, pitching" at this year's Trade Deadline and distinguished the Cardinals as being in the sellers category officially. As such, one piece that could generate interest among contending teams is shortstop Paul DeJong. The 29-year old who is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, was optioned to Triple-A in May 2022 after struggling severely at the beginning of the season. St. Louis remained optimistic about a bounceback from DeJong and has stuck with him at the position since that time. Heading into play today through 265 plate appearances, DeJong has a .238/.306/.429 slash line with 57 hits, 10 doubles, 12 home runs, 30 RBI, 19 walks, and 79 strikeouts. To date, DeJong has shined on the defensive side as well ranking in the 96th Percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA) according to Baseball Savant. 

Within his current contract, DeJong has a $12.5 million team option or $2 million buyout for the 2024 season along with a $15 million team option or $1 million buyout for 2025. The two major teams that standout as potential fits for DeJong include the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. At the shortstop position, the Red Sox currently have the eighth highest strikeout percentage (23.6%) and are tied for the lowest wRC+ (62) with the Chicago White Sox at the shortstop position. Meanwhile, the Dodgers currently have Miguel Rojas as their primary starting shortstop. However, Los Angeles have the third lowest On-Base Percentage (.273) among baseball at shortstop. 

5. 1B/OF Seth Brown 

The Oakland Athletics are on pace for a 51-111 record this season with an expected Run Differential of -307. As a result, Oakland will likely be selling more pieces off as the August 1st Trade Deadline approaches. One of the most valuable trade pieces for Oakland is first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown. Brown who is playing in his third complete major league season is set to hit arbitration for the first time this coming offseason. The left-handed hitting Brown has struggled both offensively and defensively this season. On the year, Brown is hitting .194/.271/.382 with an 85 OPS+ and 57 strikeouts over 188 plate appearances. However, he missed almost six weeks of big league action this year with a left oblique strain before being activated towards the end of May. To date, Brown has excelled with a 47.8% Hard Hit Rate, but has lacked overall power with a (.188) ISO value. 

For those teams that miss out on the aforementioned Cody Bellinger, Brown could be a backup option. He does have the ability to play DH, first base as well as left and rightfield. As a potential buy low candidate, Oakland will likely want an above-average return for Brown considering the years left of control that he has. Both the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers could be potential fits for Brown as well as the other teams that miss out on Bellinger. Although, the best fit might be the San Diego Padres who be a DH on a part-time basis as well as play first base. He would give San Diego a left-handed hitter as well which is something the team desperately is looking to add.