Trade Deadline Premier: Overview of the National League East

 

Hello Everyone! After a long hiatus of more than three years, it is the return of the Pop Fly Baseball blog! At the time of the last post, the primary focus was on looking at the top five players at every position. Over those three years, there has been a lot that has changed for myself personally as well as throughout the game of baseball! From new teams entering the contention picture to rule changes and the Covid Pandemic, there has been a lot that has occurred on and off the field for baseball since February 2020! 

After a long hiatus and with the MLB Trade Deadline now less than three weeks away, it is time to start the blog back up and begin firing out wholesome trade content. The Trade Deadline can be an exciting time for many contending teams and their fans as well as a disappointing time for other teams and fans. This year, that is no exception. 

Without further a due, it is time to get an overview of National League leading up to the August 1st Trade Deadline in a six-part series. Part One will focus on the National League East which is a division that has been ruled by the Atlanta Braves in a significant way so far this season. 

Buyers: 

Atlanta Braves (60-29, 8.5 Game Lead) 

 At the time of this blog post, the Atlanta Braves have the most wins in all of the MLB and have proven to be a complete powerhouse for the rest of the league. Going around the diamond, Atlanta does not have a lot of glaring holes on their major league roster. Starting pitchers Max Fried and Kyle Wright are both on the 60-Day Injured List. Atlanta has a lot of starting rotation depth and has been able to still dominate from that regard. Fried, who is dealing with a forearm strain, began a minor league rehab assignment last Sunday prior to the All-Star Break and is expected to make several starts in the minors before being recalled to the big league squad. Meanwhile, Wright was placed on the 15-Day Injured List around the middle of June with a right shoulder injury and it appears as though it will be some time before he is able to return to a big league mound. 

The bullpen has also been a successful overall leading the National League with a 3.43 ERA over 320 and 1/3 innings of work. There have been some notable injuries within the Braves bullpen involving Jesse Chavez, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Huascar Ynoa since Opening Day. However, as is the case with the starting rotation, the Braves have built up a lot of depth and have multiple options among their relief core. Raisel Iglesias, who the Braves acquired from the Los Angeles Angels last August, currently has 16 saves on the year with a 3.76 ERA. 

On the offensive side, Atlanta has been dominate around the diamond at nearly every position. At the time of this blog post, the Braves lead all of baseball in team OPS (.831), first in home runs (169), and first in the National League in RBI (480). From a team BABIP standpoint, Atlanta ranks eighth overall in the National League (.302). With a lineup that includes All-Stars Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Orlando Arcia, and likely National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., there is plenty of talent and no major significant needs overall. 

Needs: Given the dominance of the Atlanta Braves, there is not a lot of work that needs to be done leading up to the Trade Deadline. Atlanta will likely look to further supplement their pitching staff with depth either at the back end of the starting rotation or in the bullpen. Outside of that, it does not appear as though the Braves will have much heavy lifting to do. 

Miami Marlins (53-39, First NL Wild Card) 

The Miami Marlins have been one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball this season. In particular, a significant reason why is due to their pitching staff especially the starting rotation. At the time of this blog post, the Marlins starting staff has a 4.04 ERA on the year which is the fifth best ERA in the National League. Furthermore, the Marlins rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts (509), which is good enough for fourth in all of baseball. Last week, Miami announced that they were optioning 20-year old Eury Pérez back down to the minor leagues. Pérez was one of the biggest storylines of the first year making 11 starts for Miami, while posting a 2.36 ERA over that sample. The circumstances of the move are understandable considering that the right-hander had never eclipsed the 77-inning mark previously and the Marlins want to limit his overall workload.

On the relief front, Tanner Scott has been a bright spot for Miami putting up a 2.91 ERA over 43 and 1/3 innings of work. In situations with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP), Scott has held opposing batters to a .175/.261/.200 slash line. A.J. Puk, who was acquired from the Oakland Athletics in February of this year, has been revitalized to some degree in the closer role. Lefties are batting .172 against Puk with 13 strikeouts on the season. 

Shifting to the offense, that is where the focus will likely be for the Marlins leading up to the Trade Deadline. As a unit, the Marlins are middle-of-the-park in team OPS (.727) which ranks seventh in the National League. The biggest star within the Marlins offense has been second baseman Luis Arraez who is flirting with a .400 Batting Average and currently leads the team with 126 hits. Outfielder Jorge Soler has been very impressive as well with 23 home runs and 51 RBI on the year. 

Needs: On the trade front, the Miami Marlins will likely look to add to their pitching staff and acquire a position player or two depending on the availability of those players. Adding a veteran catcher who excels at pitch calling could be a priority for Miami along with another veteran arm to add some proven stability to the starting rotation. 

Philadelphia Phillies (48-41, 0.5 Games Back of Third NL Wild Card)

To date, the Philadelphia Phillies have not necessarily dominated in a significant way. Although, there have been moments where they have had success including at conclusion of the first half of the season finishing with a 6-4 record. As a unit, the Phillies pitching staff has the fourth best ERA in the National League at the time of this blog post (4.06) and currently rank third in strikeouts (819). More specifically, the Phillies starting rotation has been able to hold things together. Philadelphia's big-three in Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker have led the success of the rotation. Of that trio, Nola leads the way with 120 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Walker who inked a four-year, $72 million contract with Philadelphia last offseason, dominated in the month of June posting a 1.50 ERA over six starts. Ranger Suarez is a valuable option for the fourth spot of the rotation. 

The bullpen, which currently has the second best ERA in all of the NL (3.78), has had success as well. Craig Kimbrel has been able to find his groove again with a 3.41 ERA over 37 innings of work. José Alvarado, who was recently placed on the 15-Day Injured List with elbow inflammation for the second time this season, has also been a bright spot.  In high leverage situations, Alvardo has held opposing hitters to a .154/.233/.308 slash line with 14 strikeouts. 

Furthermore, the offense has once again been a strong drive force for the Phillies this season. Outside of the Atlanta Braves, the Philadelphia Phillies arguably have the best lineup in the National League East. The Phillies rank sixth in the National League in hits (794), ninth in RBI (385), and sixth in OPS (.742). Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos leads the team with a .301 batting average along with 104 hits, while fellow outfielder Kyle Schwarber has 22 home runs on the season. First baseman Alec Bohm currently leads the team in RBI (57) and second baseman Bryson Stott leads the way with a 2.4 WAR. 

Needs: On the surface, as is the case with the Atlanta Braves, it does not appear as though there is a glaring need for the Phillies as things stand right now. However, Philadelphia Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is never afraid to make a big move and use prospect capital to facilitate a trade. Therefore, nothing can be ruled out, but if there was one area of focus it would be on adding pitching depth both within the starting rotation and bullpen. 

Undecided: 

New York Mets (42-48, 7 Games Back of Third NL Wild Card Spot) 

The New York Mets have been a vastly disappointing team this season after having such a big offseason in which they bloated their payroll to $356 million, the highest in all of baseball. With a new owner in tow in Steve Cohen, the Mets were expected to be performing at a much higher level than they have. As a whole, the Mets pitching staff has a 4.39 ERA on the season with a healthy Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander now anchoring down the front of the rotation. Although, given that Scherzer and Verlander were injured at the beginning of the season, offseason acquisition Kodai Senga has been the biggest bright spot. Senga leads the team with 113 strikeouts and has a 3.31 ERA over 16 starts. 

Another offseason acquisition in right-hander David Robertson has anchored down the back end of the Mets bullpen in a significant way. Robertson has 13 saves on the season along with a 2.06 ERA over 11 appearances. Lefties are batting .187 against Robertson and the 38-year old has a 0.78 ERA in the ninth inning alone. After losing Edwin Diaz prior to Opening Day, Robertson has been able to provide some much needed stability for the team and the Mets have been able to utilize their depth in this area. Brooks Raley has also been valuable for New York currently leading the team with 17 holds. 

Offensively, the New York Mets rank middle-of-the-pack in team OPS (.726) and 12th in hits (720). First baseman Pete Alonso and centerfielder Brandon Nimmo have been the two key cogs for the Mets leading the offense way from a power standpoint. Alonso has 26 home runs and 61 RBI on the season. Meanwhile, Nimmo has 91 hits and a .365 On-Base Percentage. Despite having a down season overall, shortstop Francisco Lindor still has a .798 OPS over 339 at bats and has accumulated a team leading 3.5 WAR over that sample. 

Needs: For the New York Mets, it is simply hold time as things stand right now. Depending on how the team performs during the first two weeks beginning tomorrow (07/14) coming out of the All-Star Break will depend on whether or not the team ends up selling leading up to the August 1st Trade Deadline. If the team does elect to sell, the aforementioned David Robertson would be a very hot commodity on the trade market among contenders looking to bolster their bullpens.

Seller: 

Washington Nationals (36-54, .400 Win Percentage) 

After winning the World Series in 2019, the Washington Nationals are the only team in the National League East that appear to be definitive sellers. The Nationals have some young, exciting players starting to come up through the ranks, but it will still be another two to three seasons before the team is a true contender again. To date, the Nationals have a -83 Run Differential and concluded the first half with a 15-36 record against teams that have a .500 record or better. In March when MLB completed it's Farm System Rankings prior to the start of the 2023 regular season, the Nationals had the tenth best system. 

On the pitching side, the Nationals have a young emerging star in right-hander Josiah Gray who was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in July 2021. Gray leads the team with a 3.41 ERA over 18 games and has an 8.3 strikeouts-per-9 rate over that sample. Meanwhile, both Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams look like they could be possible trade candidates for the Nationals. Granted, Corbin is set to earn $35.4 million next year in the final season of his six-year guaranteed contract before hitting free agency. If the team were to trade him, they would likely need to focus on the financial arrangements of the deal. Trevor Williams signed a two-year, $13 million deal with the Nationals prior to the start of this season and has a 4.45 ERA on the season. 

Offensively, the Nationals have more promising pieces that should be of interest to teams. Specifically, outfielder Lane Thomas should generate plenty of trade interest as he currently leads the team in all offensive categories with 107 hits, 14 home runs, 49 RBI, and a .347 On-Base Percentage. Designated Hitter Joey Meneses and third baseman Jeimer Candelario should also draw plenty of interest from contending teams. One potentially under-the-radar trade candidate is shortstop Ildermaro Vargas who has a .284/.315/.432 slash line on the year. 

Needs: Many of the Washington Nationals Top 10 Prospects are currently slated to make it to the major leagues next season or in 2025. As such, the Nationals need to focus on trading for prospects at the A or Double A level to build more depth in the system and ensure that everything continues to follow the current timeline for the organization.