Off-Season To-Do List: National League Central

By: Chris Larson 

After a brief hiatus due to the Thanksgiving holiday (hopefully you all had a great one!), we are back in action now with two parts remaining of our Off-Season To-Do List series. The series focuses on identifying three needs for every team in each division around baseball to address this offseason. Whether or not each of those needs get addressed, remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure and that's the fact that some teams have plenty of needs to address, while others have very few.

Today's portion of the series focuses on the National League Central - a division that plenty of people thought would be the most competitive one in all of baseball last season. While that was true to a certain extent, the landscape of the division winner changed last season with the St. Louis Cardinals taking home the National League Central crown. Finishing second was the Milwaukee Brewers, who captured the second National League Wild Card spot, followed by the Chicago Cubs, a team that once again fell short of their high expectations. Rounding out the division, was the Cincinnati Reds followed up by the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds finished the season with a record under 500 again, but made significant strides especially in their starting rotation from seasons past. Meanwhile, the Pirates had an absolutely dismal season which led to the dismissal of their skipper, Clint Hurdle, as well as members of their front office including General Manager, Neal Huntington, and President, Frank Coonelly.

With that being said, here are three things for every National League Central team to focus on this offseason.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71 Record in 2019) 

• Add an Impact Bat for the Middle of the Batting Order 
• Back of the Starting Rotation Starter 
• Figure Out Role Players Roles 

Of all of the teams around baseball, the St. Louis Cardinals might end up having one of the more quiet offseasons this winter. St. Louis doesn't necessarily have any glaring needs that stand out when you look at them on paper, but there's some dysfunctionality when you start to dig a little deeper and look at some of the depth options that they have around the field. One of the challenges that stands between the Cardinals making a big splash this offseason and trying to address one of the needs listed above relates to their payroll. Last season, St. Louis had the highest payroll dating back to the 2000 regular season at ($162.6) million dollars. Heading into the 2020 season, the organization currently has a project payroll of approximately ($160.8) million dollars, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. When you look at the rest of baseball, that puts the St. Louis Cardinals as the team with the seventh highest payroll amount and that means that spending could be limited in many regards this offseason. The Cardinals have over ($45) million dollars tied up into two players - first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and catcher Yadier Molina, but there's no way either of those two players are going to be traded this offseason because they are such integral parts to the Cardinals positional player core. 

If you were to list out the needs for the St. Louis Cardinals, like we did above, the biggest need would be for them to add an impact bat for the middle of their batting order. Preferably, it would be a bat that could play somewhere in the outfield like in left field and provide enough offensive impact to make a difference within the Cardinals starting lineup. A reunion with old friend and current free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna makes plenty of sense, but depending on the market for Ozuna, he could end up being priced out of the Cardinals comfort zone. Another tremendous fit would be someone like free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas, but it all depends on the market and how much money Moustakas is going to command. Moustakas will likely want a multi-year deal after the last couple of offseasons and the Cardinals might not necessarily want to meet those teams. As a result, the Cardinals might ultimately elect to just go with the positional player group they have and hope that there's enough offense with Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler, and Harrison Bader that it can make a difference in 2020. Secondly, the Cardinals should try to find somebody who can provide them with back of the starting rotation depth. While an argument can be made that the Cardinals should try to acquire a true ace this offseason, St. Louis seems very pleased with the performance of many of the organization's young starters and will want to give them every opportunity to succeed this coming season. Therefore, free agent right-handed starting pitchers Rick Porcello or Ivan Nova could be potential fits to help give them depth at the back end and provide them with some veteran presence that would come at a cheaper cost. Lastly, as mentioned above, the St. Louis Cardinals have some dysfunctionality when you begin to look at some of the positional player depth and the Cardinals front office needs to figure out the role of those players this offseason. For example, what role is Tommy Edman going to play on the team? Where do Tyler O'Neill, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena, and Rangel Ravelo all fit into the long term picture? Sure, they are all depth options, but if some of them are capable of starting, then how do you fit them into the picture without getting rid of the veteran presence of the team completely? 

2. Milwaukee Brewers (89-73 Record in 2019) 

• Front of the Rotation Impact Starting Pitcher 
• Middle Infield Upgrade - DONE 
• Trade Shortstop Orlando Arcia 

Two years ago, the Milwaukee Brewers came very close to making it to the World Series, but ultimately ended up falling short and weren't able to replicate that postseason success this past year. For Milwaukee, starting pitching has been viewed as a major concern the past few seasons, but somehow and someway Craig Counsell & Company have found a way to get the best out of their pitching staff and really surprise people around the game - fans, analysts, and other baseball experts alike. After finishing the 2018 regular season with a payroll that eclipsed ($90) million dollars, the Brewers had an Opening Day payroll last season of approximately ($122.5) million dollars, according to data compiled by Cot's Baseball Contracts. Looking ahead to next season, Milwaukee currently has a projected payroll of ($84.5) million dollars. Therefore, it is certainly possible that the organization makes a big splash in free agency this offseason and really brings the Brew Crew fanbase together again like the night when the team acquired rightfielder, Christian Yelich from the Miami Marlins and then immediately signed centerfielder, Lorenzo Cain in free agency. After all, the Brewers have drawn over (3) million fans every season for at least the past ten years so the dedication and passion of the fanbase is certainly there. 

With that being said, it's not that hard to identify what the Milwaukee Brewers should be focused on adding the most this offseason - a frontline impact starting pitcher. Over the last handful of seasons, as previously mentioned, the starting rotation has always been an area for concern because it hasn't had that frontline, impact guy that can be a Game One starting pitcher in a postseason series. However, with the payroll flexibility that the organization possesses and the fact that there are plenty of impact starting pitching options available in free agency, now might be the perfect time for the Brewers to go after one of those top names. Although free agent right handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg could be out of Milwaukee's price range, they could potentially be interested in inking free agent left-handed starting pitcher, Madison Bumgarner. There has been interest shown in the past by the Brewers, especially prior to last year's July 31st Trade Deadline, in acquiring Madison Bumgarner and someone of his pedigree would fit nicely towards the top of the Brewers starting rotation. Additionally, free agent right hander Zack Wheeler would be another great addition, but with the demand for his services across the marketplace, he could end up being priced too high for the Brewers as well. The next need is something the Brewers addressed this past week when they acquired middle infielder Luis Urias and left-handed starting pitcher Eric Lauer from the San Diego Padres in exchange of right-handed starting pitcher Zack Davies and outfielder Trent Grisham. Milwaukee needed to badly find a way to upgrade it's middle infield, especially at the shortstop position, after some of the struggles that current shortstop, Orlando Arcia has shown at that position. As a result, that was likely a big motivator for the Brewers in making this deal happens and now means that Milwaukee can focus on trying to move Arcia in the right deal, to upgrade another part of their roster, which should be another thing that Milwaukee focuses on this offseason. When you look around baseball, they are certainly a handful of teams that could use an upgrade at the shortstop position including the: New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, and potentially the Los Angeles Dodgers. Arcia won't hit free agency until after the 2022 regular season, but there's always the chance that Milwaukee holds onto him for the time being as a way of potentially using him prior to next year's July 31st Trade Deadline in a mid-season trade package. 

3. Chicago Cubs (84-78 Record in 2019) 

• Identify Which Core Player Should Be Traded 
• Find a Way to Get Young Pitching 
• Figure Out the Future of Addison Russell 

Entering this offseason, the Chicago Cubs find themselves in sort of a merky position compared to offseasons in the past. The team fell very short of the high expectations that were set upon them this past season and have sort of been in this funk for the last two seasons. As a result, the on-the-field results convinced Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to make a change in the managerial seat with the hiring of rookie skipper, David Ross in hopes that Ross could rejuvenate the clubhouse and bring a whole new set of philosophies to the team as a whole. It remains to be seen if it will end up turning out to be a smart hire or not, but regardless the Cubs have some work to do this offseason in an attempt to figure out what they want their identity to look like moving forward. Last season, the Cubs had the third highest Opening Day payroll in all of baseball at ($203) million dollars. If the season started right now, Cot's Baseball Contracts indicates that they would have a projected payroll of right around ($187.6) million dollars which is about ($21) million dollars under the ($208) million dollar luxury tax threshold for the 2020 regular season. As it stands right now, the Cubs have ($65.5) million dollars tied up in four starting pitchers alone - RHP Yu Darvish, LHP Jon Lester, RHP Kyle Hendriks, and LHP Jose Quintana. That's a lot of money for any team to have tied up in their starting rotation, but it is going to be virtually impossible for the Cubs to find a way to trade any of those four names which means that they will need to focus on other areas to make a trade from. 

One of those areas is trying to figure out which of their original core players should be traded. So far this offseason, there has been plenty of chatter around catcher Willson Contreras and third baseman Kris Bryant and to a lesser degree leftfielder Kyle Schwarber. First baseman, Anthony Rizzo, has not had his name mentioned in any trade rumors and it remains highly unlikely that the organization will want to move on from him. Rizzo is a staple of the Cubs organization, the fans and players throughout the organization embrace him, and he is a very valuable asset to the local community around Chicago. Therefore, it is much more likely that one of the other three names ultimately ends up getting moved and it would not be a surprise to see Kris Bryant and/or Willson Contreras moved in a deal this offseason. Both positions are positions that multiple teams are looking to upgrade and there's bound to be a team that puts together a trade package that is very attractive to the Cubs and involves multiple pieces coming back to the organization including young pitching. When you look at the Chicago Cubs farm system over the last handful of seasons, the organization has had a very challenging time trying to develop it's own pitching and lacks impactful, young pitching prospects. In the past, both Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have recognized this as an area that the organization needs to focus more on and this should be the offseason that the Cubs attempt to start building up that pitching depth for the future. For example, a team like the Cincinnati Reds could be very interested in putting together a trade package to acquire catcher, Willson Contreras. Cincinnati wouldn't be alone in their pursuit, but the Reds have a highly regarded farm system which includes a number of high-end, young pitching prospects. Cincinnati likely wouldn't trade first overall prospect, RHP Hunter Greene to the Chicago Cubs for Contreras, but their second ranked prospect, LHP Nick Lodolo, could be a potential target as could Cincinnati Reds fourth ranked prospect, RHP Tony Santillan. Of course, there would need to be more going back to Chicago for Contreras, but those are a couple of names that could serve as starting points. Lastly, once those two needs have been addressed, the Cubs need to figure out what to do with shortstop, Addison Russell. If you recall, Russell served a 40-game domestic violence suspension last season and the organization's view of Russell quickly changed. He is still listed as a potential depth piece, but the Cubs have young shortstop, Nico Hoerner, who could easily take over and be the full-time guy at that position ultimately eliminating Russell from the picture. 

4. Cincinnati Reds (75-87 Record in 2019) 

• Find an Upgrade at the Catching Position 
• Look for an Upgrade at Shortstop 
• Add an Impactful Outfield Bat 

Last season, the Cincinnati Reds fell short once again of their primary goal of finishing the season with a record better than .500, but that doesn't mean that there aren't good things in the making there in Cincinnati. The Reds took a significant step forward last season especially in their starting rotation and their bullpen did a great job overall as well - thanks to the knowledge brought about by pitching coach, Derek Johnson who the organization hired from the Milwaukee Brewers prior to the start of last season. Johnson worked with Sonny Gray back during Gray's college days and found a way to significantly turn his craft back around which was an excellent progressive move for Gray and the Reds alike. In regard to payroll figures now, the Reds are currently nearing record territory and had an Opening Day payroll of ($126.6) million dollars last season, for the organization's hundred and fiftieth anniversary. As it looks right now, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Reds have a projected 2020 Opening Day payroll figure of ($118.1) million dollars which would put the organization thirteenth overall among the rest of baseball. The good news is that the future brings about more payroll flexibility overall, but first baseman Joey Votto's contract is going to continue to cost the organization ($25) million dollars per season through 2023. 

Among the chief needs for the Cincinnati Reds this offseason, one of the most important one's is to find an upgrade at the catching position. Tucker Barnhart is an excellent catcher and pitch framer, but if the Reds have an opportunity to add the aforementioned, Willson Contreras from the Chicago Cubs, then they should definitely do it. In fact, an argument could have been made that the Reds should have been the most serious team in the derby for free agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal before he signed with the Chicago White Sox. The Reds were in the derby, but were reportedly unwilling to commit to the same four-year, $72 million dollar contract that Grandal ended up getting from the White Sox. As a result, Contreras would be the next best option for an upgrade at the position and if Cincinnati would prefer to have Barnhart as their primary catcher, then they could potentially look to add a backup catcher in the form of Omar Narvaez of the Seattle Mariners or one of the remaining free agent catching options. Additionally, another area that the Reds should focus on upgrading is at shortstop. Cincinnati would be a perfect fit for free agent shortstop, Didi Gregorious, and he could provide the Reds will value on both sides of the ball when healthy. Gregorious is entering his age 30 season, but when he is healthy he is a better upgrade over current Cincinnati Reds Opening Day shortstop, Jose Peraza. Furthermore, if the Reds would rather focus on upgrading second base, then they can slide current starting second baseman, Freddy Galvis over to shortstop and potentially focus on signing a free agent second baseman such as Starlin Castro, Jonathan Schoop, or even reunite themselves with last season's energetic second baseman, Derek Dietrich. Finally, once both of those positions have been addressed to some regard, the Reds should focus on the outfield and finding an impact bat to add to the mix. So far, the Reds have been reported to be one of the teams in the derby for free agent outfielder, Marcell Ozuna and the fit makes a lot of sense in many regards. Ozuna is a middle of the order bat that can provide Cincinnati with extra offense and he has the ability to play all three outfield positions. Another potential fit could be free agent outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos as well. 

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93 Record in 2019) 

• Figure Out What Direction the Team is Going In 
• Find a Trade Partner for Outfielder Starling Marte 
• Focus on Obtaining Young Prospects 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a very important offseason ahead of them on the heels of what was a very disappointing 2019 regular season. Last year, many people expected the Pirates to be a contender and even push for the National League Central crown, but that was definitely not the case. Instead, the team finished in last place, twenty-two games back of first place, and had an overall Run Differential of (-153) which was the second worst value behind only the Miami Marlins. Last season, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Pittsburgh Pirates had an Opening Day payroll of ($83.7) million dollars which ranked twenty-ninth in all of baseball. Currently, if the season opened today, the Pirates would have the lowest payroll of all thirty teams at a projected ($65.3) million dollars. Pittsburgh is a true small market team and is very careful with the amount of money that the team invests into the major league roster every single year. A majority of the time, Pittsburgh will rely on internal options instead of looking outside of the organization for reinforcements, but with a new front office regime in place led by General Manager, Ben Cherington some of those philosophies could start to change as soon as this offseason. 

With that being said, the most important thing that the Pirates need to figure out first and foremost is what direction the team is going to go in. An argument can be made for three different scenarios which include the Pirates pushing in all of their chips to try to win now, the Pirates doing a minor retooling effort of their big league roster, or the organization doing a complete rebuild from the very top all the way down to the bottom. Depending on what direction, Ben Cherington & Company want to go in will depend on exactly what avenue the Pirates should go down this offseason, but regardless of whatever direction the team goes in, they need to prioritize trying to find a trade partner for outfielder, Starling Marte. Marte is projected to earn ($11.5) million dollars in his final year of arbitration next season and comes with a ($12.5) million dollar team option or ($1) million dollar buyout for the 2021 regular season. Regardless though, the Pirates will likely not be a contending team before Marte hits free agency which means that they need to get something significant in return fro him while they can. Around baseball, there are a number of different teams that could use Starling Marte including the: New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres. Each of those teams have either a need or a situation where they could afford to make an upgrade in centerfield and could probably put together a trade package that catches the attention of the Pirates front office. In any trade package for Marte or any other player this offseason (depending on what direction the Pirates go in), the focus should be on obtaining young prospects to build up depth and impact at all levels of the farm system, but particularly the lower levels. Many of the Pirates current top prospects reside at the top of the farm system or are big league ready pieces meaning that focus should be put on the lower levels and trying to build up depth there. Ben Cherington has always said that he wanted to build an organization from the bottom to the top and now could be his grand opportunity to do that. Only time will tell what ultimately ends up happening there in the Steel City.