Off-Season To-Do List: American League West

By: Chris Larson

Over the course of the next two weeks, we will be doing a series on here outlining the to-do list, with three items for each respective team, around baseball. The goal here is to identify exactly what every team needs to do to have a successful offseason and put themselves in the most competitive position possible heading into 2020.

The series kicks off today with a look at the American League West - a division that is clearly made up of the haves and have nots, but one that could see the landscape begin to shift a bit come 2020. On the very top, you have the Houston Astros who have made it to the postseason three consecutive years now followed by the Oakland Athletics, a team that continually finds a way to surprise everyone, locking down an American League Wild Card spot in 2018 as well as this past season. Additionally, there's the Texas Rangers, a team on the periphery up-and-coming with a bright future, the Los Angeles Angels, who should be able to start competing at a higher level come 2020 assuming they do what they need to do this offseason, and the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are still going to be in a state of rebuild when 2020 rolls around, but that doesn't mean that things should be that way in 2 or 3 years from now.

With that being said, here are three things for every American League West team to focus on this offseason.

1. Houston Astros (107-55 Record in 2019) 

• Middle or Back End of the Rotation Starting Pitching 
• Catcher 
• Left-Handed Bullpen Reliever 

Besides the off the field controversy currently surrounding the Houston Astros (that topic is for another day and another article), Houston Astros General Manager and President of Baseball Operations, Jeff Luhnow has quite a few things on his to-do list this offseason. The Astros are going to be a bit hamstrung, in regard to what magnitude they can go to address these needs considering that their projected payroll for 2020 currently sits at ($212.4) million dollars according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, but their owner Jim Crane has mentioned that the team would be okay exceeding the luxury tax threshold which will be ($208) million dollars for the 2020 season under the right circumstance. Therefore, as things look right now, the Houston Astros are over the threshold by ($4) million dollars, but they could potentially shave some money through a couple of non-tenders of guys like SP Aaron Sanchez and potentially SS Aledmys Diaz which would save a projected ($8) million dollars. Furthermore, Jeff Luhnow & Company could always pull off a trade that no one saw coming either as a means of clearing even more payroll space. One potential could be to trade centerfielder, George Springer, who has one year remaining before free agency at a projected ($21.4) million dollars. Of course, that would be a major loss to the offense and defense for the Astros, but it could be a great cost cutting move to give Houston more flexibility to address the three needs listed above this offseason. 

At the very top of that to-do list should be to add a middle or back end of the starting rotation starting pitcher. Gerrit Cole would be the ideal target, but that could be extremely challenging considering the state of the Astros payroll as it looks right now. Therefore, the focus would likely be on that second-tier of starting pitchers that consists of left-handers Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel as well as right-handers Tanner Roark and Kyle Gibson. Granted, none of those names have anywhere near the same level of impact as Cole, but they could slot in nicely behind Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. Next on the to-do list is the need to add a catcher. Free agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal, would be a perfect fit to pair with projected Opening Day starting catcher, Garrett Stubbs. With that being said, Houston likely won't be able to afford Grandal given the amount of teams that will be interested in him so a reunion with catcher, Robinson Chirinos who was part of last year's team, seems much more likely. After addressing both of those needs, the Astros should look to try and add a left-handed reliever as well. During the 2019 regular season, the Astros did not possess a single left-hander in their bullpen and while it didn't hamstring them by any means, it might be nice to have that additional option late in games.

2. Oakland Athletics (97-65 Record in 2019) 

• Catcher 
• Impact Reliever for Bullpen 
• Starting Pitching Depth

After making two surprise postseason appearances in 2018 and 2019, this should be viewed as a big offseason for the Oakland Athletics. Although the team doesn't have a history of going out into the free agent or trade markets and making a big splash, this should be a winter where they at least consider doing that and upgrading their team with a substantial move or two. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, if the Athletics opened the season today, they would have a 2020 Opening Day projected payroll of ($106.5) million dollars. That would be the highest payroll ever for the organization dating back to the 2000 regular season and would certainly be outside of the organization's comfort zone. However, if they are going to be committing that much money to the payroll already, then it's obvious that they need to be in win-now mode and need to do everything in their power to try and overseat the Houston Astros potentially for the American League West Division Championship. It's going to be a challenge, but depending on what the Houston Astros end up doing this offseason, it might be a period of transition when it comes to the overall landscape of the division. Although the Athletics and Billy Beane originally came up with the idea of Moneyball, this might be the perfect time to invest in their young core and really help to catapult things there on the east side of the Bay Area. 

For the Oakland Athletics, the biggest item on their to-do list this offseason should be to find an impactful catcher. During the 2019 regular season, the Athletics ranked second to last in all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved with a (-21) value, which put them just ahead of the Baltimore Orioles. If Oakland is able to find an impactful catcher, who knows what type of impact it could have on their pitching staff and getting their starters and relievers to perform at their highest potential. The perfect target would once again be free agent, Yasmani Grandal, but Oakland might not want to invest the money or years that it would take to sign him. Secondly, the Athletics definitely need to be in the market for an impactful bullpen arm. The Athletics have a big question mark when it comes to right-handed reliever, Blake Treinen which means that they might need an impactful arm to come in and provide the same level of impact that Treinen had, as recent as last season. Many expect Treinen to be non-tendered by the Athletics in an effort to help the organization slash payroll. While a lot of the relievers on the free agent market don't necessarily provide the same results that Treinen posted during the 2018 regular season, there should be a trade that could be made for an impactful reliever. Finally, the Athletics might have a young starting rotation with plenty of power arms, but they would be wise to add some assurance to that rotation with another veteran guy to go along with right-hander, Mike Fiers. A reunion with second-half Athletics starting pitcher and the aforementioned, Tanner Roark, certainly would help fill the need. 

3. Texas Rangers (78-84 Record in 2019) 

• At Least Two Impactful Starting Pitchers 
• Star Third Baseman 
• Outfield Bat 

Looking ahead to this offseason, the Texas Rangers have an exciting future ahead of them and should be able to bring home some nice gifts given that they are moving into a new ballpark. 2020 has always been the season that the Rangers have identified as the year when they want to take a step forward and starting playing a better brand of baseball. Well, that time has arrived and now is the time for the team to have a big offseason and really change the landscape of baseball in and around the Arlington, Texas area. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Rangers currently have a projected 2020 Opening Day payroll of ($110.2) million dollars which should leave them with plenty of spending room. Over the last nineteen seasons, the Rangers highest payroll sat at ($165.3) million dollars during the 2017 regular season so the desire to spend big and invest in the 26-man roster should certainly be there from both the ownership side as well as the front office. Over the past few offseasons, the Rangers have spent very frugally likely because they were trying to set money aside for this offseason. Texas Rangers General Manager and President of Baseball Operations, Jon Daniels, always said that he never wanted to spend big the past couple of winters and focused more on internal options instead of looking to the outside for reinforcements. Now, it's time to go out there, spend big, and compliment those internal players with some impact from outside of the organization. 

As a result of that, the biggest thing the Texas Rangers need to do this offseason is to add at least two impactful starting pitchers. In an ideal world, they would add two free agent starting pitchers and then look to make a trade for a third one just to have that additional depth, in the event of an unexpected injury to someone in their rotation. As they say, you can never have enough starting pitching and have to give yourself plenty of options to utilize during a 162-game season. Both Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg should be targets for the Rangers, but if they fail to add either one, then they need to try and go after other impactful arms on the free agent market like the aforementioned left-handers Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel. If the Rangers are able to secure two free agent starting pitchers, then they will be doing well and could then turn their attention to the trade market where they could try to acquire another starting pitcher and address their need for an outfield bat in the same deal. So far this offseason, there have been rumors about the Texas Rangers potentially being interested in one of the Boston Red Sox left-handed starting pitchers in David Price or Chris Sale. Therefore, the Rangers could potentially trade for one of them and then try to acquire someone like centerfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr., who many expect Boston to non-tender to address their need for an outfield bat. Besides both of those things, another significant need for the Texas Rangers this offseason will be to add a star third baseman on the free agent market. Luckily for the Rangers, there are plenty of attractive options including superstar Anthony Rendon at the very top of the market followed by Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas. Any of those three would be ideal fits for the Rangers, but Rendon would be the absolute dream given that he is from the Houston area and would be returning to his home state. 

4. Los Angeles Angels (72-90 Record in 2019) 

• At Least Two Impactful Starting Pitchers 
• Bullpen Help
• Impact Corner Infielder 

After bringing in a new skipper this offseason in Joe Madden and revamping the coaching staff with the notable hiring of pitching coach, Mickey Callaway, there is plenty of pressure on the shoulders of Los Angeles Angels General Manager, Billy Eppler, this offseason. The team is poised to start a consecutive period of winning and many of their fans as well as people around baseball want to see competitive baseball to return to Anaheim again. As a result, Eppler has his work cut out for him this offseason and the Angels need to really go all-in, if they want to get Mike Trout back to the postseason sooner rather than later. Right now, the Angels have a projected 2020 Opening Day payroll of ($142.9) million dollars which gives them about ($61.4) million dollars to spend before they would reach the luxury tax threshold amount of ($208) million dollars. There's no indication that the Angels are going to want to spend the entire ($61.4) million dollars they have remaining or even approach the luxury tax threshold in that fashion, but they should try to spend a significant amount of that this offseason. Dating back to the 2000 regular season, the highest payroll for the Angels came during the 2018 regular season when it sat at ($166.6) million dollars, but considering the multitude of needs for the Angels this offseason, it would not be a surprise to see them exceed that amount.

Just like the Texas Rangers, the Los Angeles Angels need to put starting pitching at the very top of their list. Of all of the options on the open market, Gerrit Cole would be the perfect match given that he would be able to return home to Southern California and is the ace that the Angels have been longing for. Outside of Cole, any of the free agent starting pitchers mentioned previously would fit, but left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu might be the ideal target. Ryu would be able to travel down from Los Angeles, still reside within the same general vicinity, and would provide the Angels will another impact arm to pair with the likes of Gerrit Cole (presumably), Andrew Heaney, and Jaime Barria. On top of those two individuals, the Angels might want to see if they could trade for a starting pitcher as well and potentially address their need for bullpen help in the process. Depending on what the Cleveland Indians end up doing this offseason, maybe the Angels try to get right-hander Corey Kluber and right-handed reliever Brad Hand in a package deal. It would likely cost a premium, but the Angels finally have a farm system with attractive prospects and have reportedly come out saying they are willing to trade from it. Once the pitching has been addressed, then a smaller yet still urgent need for the Angels is going to be to find either an impact corner infielder. The Angels could afford to upgrade at both positions and use the added offense in their lineup. If the Angels elect to look at first base, Matt Adams could fit nicely into the equation after he hit (20) home runs and had a (.741) OPS with the Washington Nationals last season. If the Angels look to third base for an upgrade, then Mike Moustakas could be a potential fit.

5. Seattle Mariners (68-94 Record in 2019) 

• Continue to Stockpile Prospects and Cut Payroll Where Necessary 
• Starting Pitching Depth 
• Find a Deal for Rightfielder Mitch Haniger 

Of all of the teams on this list, the Seattle Mariners are likely to be the one that ends up spending the least amount of money this offseason. As a result, there will probably be more trades that end up taking place with players leaving the Mariners 26-man roster compared to the amount of players being added to it, but it doesn't necessarily sound like the team will be overly active either. Seattle Mariners General Manager, Jerry Dipoto, has reportedly said that he doesn't plan on being active compared to in offseasons past and the Mariners are sort of at the point where they don't necessarily have a lot of trade assets left. However, with that being said, Seattle should look to continue to make payroll cutting moves where necessary and try to lower the payroll from the current projected amount of ($100.2) million dollars, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. That figure is a lot better than last year's Opening Day payroll of ($146.4) million dollars and is a far cry from the 2018 regular season payroll amount of ($157.9) million dollars. Last offseason, Jerry Dipoto got very creative in slashing the payroll, as illustrated by the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz trade with the New York Mets, and if needed, he can likely find a way to make a deal of that magnitude again with high salary players like second baseman Dee Gordon or third baseman Kyle Seager this offseason. 

Besides trying to slash payroll where necessary and continue stockpiling prospects for the future, the Seattle Mariners should focus on trying to acquire starting pitching depth. Now, it's not going to be flashy names that come into the Mariners starting rotation and have top of the rotation stuff, but rather workhorses that can provide stability and essentially act as inning eaters. Therefore, the likes of right-handers Rick Porcello and Ivan Nova or left-hander Alex Wood could be potential targets for Seattle. With all three of those individuals, there is some risk involved from a health perspective, but the Mariners would be providing some stability within their starting rotation and arms that can soak up some innings to help preserve the bullpen from work overload. Finally, although Jerry Dipoto and Company have been hesitant to do so in the past, now might be the best time to try and move right fielder, Mitch Haniger. Haniger dealt with a ruptured testicle from June until the end of the regular season this year, but when he is healthy, he can provide any team with a middle of the order bat and someone that can handle right field very well. The team acquiring him would probably be buying low on Haniger so the return might not necessarily be what it could have been last offseason, but it should still be substantial enough to add another exciting prospect or two to the Mariners farm system.