Off-Season Preview: The Top 10 Pitching Free Agents and Potential Fits for All 10

By: Chris Larson

The other day we took a look at who the Top 10 Position Player free agents are on this year's market and this time around the focus shifts over to the pitching side of things. This time around, we will take a look at who the Top 10 Pitchers are in this offseason's free agent market and try to nail down fits for all 10.

The good news is that if you are a team in need of pitching help this offseason, especially in the starting rotation, you have a lot of different options and routes you can go to add different looks to your rotation. Therefore, there should be plenty of excitement over the preceding weeks and months surrounding the starting pitching market and will really be centered around the two "big fish" at the top in right-handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. That news boyds really well for teams with plenty of payroll flexibility moving forward and ones that can make a significant investment in that area.

Without further a due, here are the Top 10 Pitching Free Agents for teams to take a look at this offseason.

* All stats listed under each player are from the 2019 regular season. *

1. SP Gerrit Cole (Age 29) 
ERA+: 185, WAR: 6.9 

Gerrit Cole is going to have quite a compelling free agency because there is going to be a ton of interest considering the season he is coming off of and due to the level of impact that he can have within any starting rotation. Cole is coming off a season in which he posted a career best ERA+ and WAR as indicated above along with the lowest ERA of his career (2.50) and the most strikeouts of his big league tenure at (326). What's really intriguing about Cole is the idea that he is still only 29 years of age and is right in the middle of his peak meaning there's probably another 4-5 seasons that he can be very effective. As a result, there is bound to be plenty of interest out in the free market with teams like the: Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, and even the Houston Astros all in the derby. Cole has indicated previously that he wants to go home to a team out in California so it would not be a surprise to see him land with the Angels or Dodgers because of that. Furthermore, there may even be a few mystery teams that enter the derby like the: Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, and Washington Nationals if they are unable to retain Stephen Strasburg.

2. SP Stephen Strasburg (Age 31) 
ERA+: 138, WAR: 6.3 

If a team misses out on Gerrit Cole, then Stephen Strasburg is going to be their next best option. Strasburg is coming off a postseason in which he won World Series Most Valuable Player honors and really came onto the scene under the big lights to prove that he is very capable of pitching in high pressure situations. As a result, he should be able to command plenty of interest in free agency, but there might only be a few destinations that Strasburg is willing to go to. The best fit is back with the Washington Nationals who need to do everything possible to retain Strasburg in their starting rotation. If the Nationals somehow fail to land Strasburg and go a different direction, then the next best fit is with the San Diego Padres who have been rumored to be interested in Strasburg for quite some time now. The Padres have the ability to add another high priced contract to their payroll and it would really allow their starting rotation to take a big leap forward. If neither the Nationals or Padres land Strasburg, then teams like the: Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, and Milwaukee Brewers make sense as well.

3. LHP Dallas Keuchel (Age 32) 
ERA+: 121, WAR: 2.1 

Dallas Keuchel doesn't necessarily have the same brand recognition of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but he is still a terrific middle of the rotation option for a number of different teams. Keuchel is coming off a year in which he had a Runs Allowed Per 9 rate of (3.99) and an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.265) and while he isn't necessarily as effective, as he was during the 2015 regular season when he won the American League Cy Young Award, there's a number of teams that should still have interest in his skillset. Some of the potential fits out there include the: New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds or even back with the Houston Astros or Atlanta Braves. Of those fits, let's consider Minnesota Twins as a logical destination because Keuchel won't drain the Twins of all of the spending money they have and would add credibility to their starting rotation behind Jose Berrios. By going to the Twins, Keuchel would stay in the American League and be able to provide the Twins with an innings eater which is going to be crucial if they want to make the playoffs next year.

4. RHP Zack Wheeler (Age 30) 
ERA+: 102, WAR: 3.5 

At the July 31st Trade Deadline this year, there was plenty of smoke surrounding Zack Wheeler and whether the New York Mets would ultimately trade him or not. Wheeler generated lots of interest on the trade market most notably by the Houston Astros who should make Wheeler one of their top starting pitching targets should they lose out in the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes. During the 2019 regular season, Wheeler faced a total of (829) batters, accumulated (195) strikeouts, and recorded a (3.96) ERA over 195.1 innings of work. With the amount of reliance that the Houston Astros put into analytics and how they seemingly worked magic with both Justin Verlander and the aforementioned Gerrit Cole, there might be something that the Astros identified that they could work with Wheeler on in his craft when they first showed interest at the Trade Deadline and that could carry over to this offseason. As a result, it might be one of those situations where Wheeler heads to Houston and ends up being a terrific value option for the Astros on a two or potentially three-year deal. If the Astros don't have interest, then a team like the Milwaukee Brewers would be another excellent landing spot.

5. LHP Madison Bumgarner (Age 30) 

ERA+: 107, WAR: 2.5 

After spending his entire career with the San Francisco Giants, the team in which he made his debut with during the 2009 regular season, Madison Bumgarner is officially a free agent and a true workhorse at that regardless of some of the decline that has taken place in his overall metrics the past couple of years. With Bumgarner, any team knows that not only are they getting a workhorse type of starting pitcher, they're getting someone that can eat up innings and save that team's bullpen which is a tremendous plus. As far as potential fits go, there are a couple of different options including the: Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, but there is no better fit for Madison Bumgarner than with the Atlanta Braves. Bumgarner was born in Hickory, North Carolina and has expressed a desire to return home over the last couple of years leading up to this offseason. Therefore, by signing with the Atlanta Braves, Bumgarner would be closer to home and could really boost the Braves starting rotation by being a leader for all of the young starting pitchers that the Braves currently possess in their stable. 

6. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (Age 33) 

ERA+: 179, WAR: 5.1 

Looking back at this season, Hyun-Jin Ryu was one of the National Leagues best starting pitchers, especially during the first portion of the season, and really shined in the Los Angeles Dodgers starting rotation. Towards the end of the season, Ryu sort of declined somewhat, but that doesn't take away from the success that he experienced. Ryu did really well against left-handed batters this season posting a cumulative batting line against of: .199/.211/.327 over the span of 177 plate appearances with a (.228) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and (43) strikeouts. Beyond that, Ryu did well against right-handers as well which adds to his overall value in free agency. Potential fits where Ryu would fit in very nicely consist of the: San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, and Toronto Blue Jays. While all five of those teams seem like perfect fits, the really intriguing team is the Los Angeles Angels on the other side of Los Angeles from Ryu's former team - the Los Angeles Dodgers. If the Angels were able to add Gerrit Cole and then add another established arm like Hyun-Jin Ryu to their starting rotation, then they would really have a good offseason. Of course, there is always the potential that the Los Angeles Dodgers want to make a reunion with Ryu as well. 

7. LHP Will Smith (Age 30) 

ERA+: 152, WAR: 2.1 

If Will Smith happens to turn down the Qualifying Offer from the San Francisco Giants, then he is easily going to be the best reliever on the free agent market. Smith would add some name quality to the back end of any team's bullpen and be someone that can really be a lock down guy. What's amazing about Will Smith based on his 2019 regular season stats is his ability to perform well in save and non-save situations. In save situations with the Giants, Smith had a cumulative batting against line of: .174/.242/.298 over 158 plate appearances, while in non-save situations the battling line against opponents was: .187/.253/.286 over 99 plate appearances. In regard to potential fits, there are a number of different teams that would benefit by having a left-hander at the back of their bullpen including the: World Series Champion Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Minnesota Twins. However, one of the best fits is with the Philadelphia Phillies given the uncertainty regarding their bullpen heading into the 2020 regular season. If the Phillies happen to have their bullpen depleted again this coming season due to injuries, Will Smith could be a guy that could step in and provide some stability. 

8. RHP Julio Teheran (Age 29) 

ERA+: 119, WAR: 2.7 

Right-handed starting pitcher Julio Teheran is an interesting arm, but doesn't nearly have the appeal that he might have held a few seasons ago. While Teheran recorded (162) strikeouts the past two seasons and has thrown nearly (190) innings dating back to the 2013 regular season, he does have a (4.3) walks-per-9 rate and a Fielding Independent Percentage (FIP) of at least (4.60) the past two seasons. Due to those things, some teams might be leary of what Julio Teheran could bring to their starting rotation and might express some hesitancy which could ultimately dry up his market. However, if a rebuilding team is in need of someone to eat up some innings among other younger starting pitchers in their rotation, then Teheran might be an excellent option. Therefore, teams like the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Royals, and Pittsburgh Pirates could make sense, the ideal fit for Julio Teheran is north of the border with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are in desperate need of starting pitching help and by adding Julio Teheran to their starting rotation, they could add an arm that has a track record at the big league level and allow for more development time for the organization's young starters coming up the pipeline. 

9. RHP Tanner Roark (Age 33) 

ERA+: 103, WAR: 2.0 

If a team is in the market for starting pitching and wants to look at another veteran type arm, then right-hander Tanner Roark would fit the bill. Roark, who has pitched in the big leagues for seven seasons now, continues to show his durability by never having an Injured List stint before and has made a total of at least (30) starts during five of the last six seasons. As a result, Roark should be able to generate some interest among teams around the league, but likely won't command the same level of interest as the other names at the start of this list. Around the league, the potential destinations for Roark include signing back with the Oakland Athletics along with the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Atlanta Braves. Although many of those teams would benefit from Roark's services and a reunion with the Oakland Athletics is certainly possible, the most likely destination for Roark is with the aforementioned Toronto Blue Jays. Roark would be able to add onto what the aforementioned Julio Teheran could bring to the team's starting rotation and would be someone that would allow Toronto to give their young starting pitchers more time to develop. 

10. RHP Will Harris (Age 35) 

ERA+: 309, WAR: 2.1

Behind Will Smith, Will Harris is the second best relief option available on the free agent market this offseason. Harris was a very valuable reliever with the Houston Astros and contributed quite a bit to the Astros bullpen during his five-seasons there. During that span, Harris posted a (2.36) ERA over 297.0 innings of work with (315) strikeouts, a (2.99) FIP, and performed really well in high leverage situations. In those situations, Harris posted a cumulative batting line against of: .226/.280/.325 over 465 plate appearances and any team is going to want that type of performance in those sticky situations late in a ball game. Therefore, a number of teams should be very interested in getting Will Harris to sign on the dotted line for them including the: Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Among those potential destinations the most intriguing might be the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are in need of another bullpen arm to couple with Joe Kelly and Kenley Jansen at the back end and Will Harris could be that guy. If Jansen struggled at various times throughout the 2020 regular season, the Dodgers could turn to Will Harris and move Kenley Jansen to either the seventh or eighth innings depending on what they elected to do with Joe Kelly.