The Three Keys for the Washington Nationals to Win Game 3

For Game Three of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals National League Divisional Series later this evening, Anibal Sanchez will take the mound for the Washington Nationals, while Hyun-Jin Ryu will do the same for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Game 3 is going to be a pivotal game because the series is currently tied 1-1 and is going to take place back at Nationals Park allowing the Washington Nationals to play somewhere they are comfortable with. Depending on who ends up coming out on top of this game, could ultimately decide the series winner.

As a team during the 2019 regular season, the Washington Nationals had a home record of (50-31), good enough for a (.617) winning percentage, while scoring (453) runs and allowing (384). Overall, those were much better numbers than the Nationals road record which finished at (43-38). On the road, the Washington Nationals lineup scored (420) runs, while their pitching staff allowed (340). Switching over to the other side of the field, the Los Angeles Dodgers were a very strong team at home at Chavez Ravine, but weren't necessarily as strong on the road. At Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers finished the 2019 regular season with a (59-22) record, good enough for a (.728) winning percentage, while scoring (441) runs and allowing (271). When it came to playing on the road, the Dodgers finished the season with a (47-34) record, while their lineup scored (445) runs and their pitching staff allowed (342).

In terms of general splits, the idea of the Washington Nationals playing back at Nationals Park could play in their favor today as could the idea of Anibal Sanchez being named as the Game Three starting pitcher. On the year, Anibal Sanchez was the one guy in the Nationals starting rotation that never seemed to garner enough attention nationally and while many thought Max Scherzer would wind up starting this game, it now appears as though he will be the Game Four starter. However, take that with a grain of salt because it seems as though the starting pitching matchups continue to remain in the air for the Nationals and it would not be a surprise to see Scherzer pitch out of the bullpen during today's game.

With all of that being said, here are three keys for the Washington Nationals to secure a victory later today and to head into Game Four ahead in the series, 2-1. It's going to be difficult because of the talent level of left-hander, Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it's possible if the right ingredients and situations come together at the right time.

1. Allow the right-handed hitters to do most of the damage against Ryu. - The Washington Nationals have a pretty right-handed heavy lineup with Adam Eaton and Juan Soto being the only regular, left-handed hitters. Outside of those two, the Nationals have a lot of right-handed bats and that could play into their favor today against Hyun-Jin Ryu. During the 2019 regular season, Ryu finished the season with a batting line of: .245/.280/.370 against righties over 135.1 innings of work with a (.295) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), (1.40) walks-per-9 rate, and a (7.98) strikeouts-per-9 rate. On the other hand, when it came to facing lefties, Ryu held lefties to a: .199/.211/.327 slash line over 47.1 innings pitch with a (.224) BABIP, (0.57) walks-per-9 rate, and a (8.18) strikeouts-per-9 rate. Granted, both splits are impressive overall and speak to the talent level of Ryu, but there is a way for right-handed hitters to get to him and that is going to be a key for the Washington Nationals in today's game. For example, if some of the Nationals right-handed batters such as Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Howie Kendrick are patient enough, they might find themselves being granted a walk instead of striking out. The more walks that the lineup can generate, the more scoring opportunities the Washington Nationals will have especially during the early innings of the game when Ryu is guaranteed to be on the mound.

2. Work the counts in their favor and stay patient against Hyun-Jin Ryu. - As mentioned in the previous portion of this discussion, the Washington Nationals right-handed bats will need to stay patient at the plate and try to force a walk when it comes in their favor. The same can be said when the Nationals hitters try to manipulate the count into their favor in the box. Take a look at the chart below for data on various counts and how Hyun-Jin Ryu has performed in those counts, courtesy of data from FanGraphs.

As you can see from the numbers in the chart, the higher the count get's out of Ryu's favor, the more damage the opposing team's lineup did during those situations throughout the regular season. For instance, take a look at the 2-0 count compared to the stats for the count when it's 0-2. The differences are remarkable even though the sample size is vastly smaller for 2-0 count situations. In addition, it's fair to assume that Hyun-Jin Ryu might end up becoming more rattled when the count isn't in his favor which leads to a pitch not going where he wants it to go and thus allows for a higher slugging percentage. For instance, when Ryu is 0-2 the slugging percentage for the opposing team's batter is (.190), but when he is 2-0 in the count the slugging percentage is (.717). The same can be said for when he is 2-2 (.257) compared to when he is 3-1 (.543). Again, that 3-1 count sample size is different, but this data goes to show that the longer a batter sits in the box and practices patience, the higher potential there is to put the ball in play and score some runs or at least generate base runners.

3. Allow Anibal Sanchez to pitch as deep as he can go and then string together a couple of shutdown innings. - In the postseason, pitching ends up contributing to a win for a team moreso than hitting does and that has been the case so far this postseason. For reference to that, refer to the two games yesterday in which Masahiro Tanaka and the New York Yankees bullpen completely shutdown the Minnesota Twins lineup and last night when Gerrit Cole recorded 15 strikeouts against the Tampa Bay Rays and prevented them from doing anything significant when he was on the mound. The same is going to hold true for the Washington Nationals today and their ability to keep the Los Angeles Dodgers from scoring especially the later in the ballgame it gets. Assuming the Washington Nationals lineup stays patient and follows the various approaches mentioned above, it should play into the Nationals favor and allow them to get an early enough lead against the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, as is always the case in baseball, nothing is guaranteed and a manager along with their coaching staff have to plan for a number of different situations that could come up.

As such, the Washington Nationals need to hope that Anibal Sanchez is able to go as deep as possible today and then follow his performance up with a few shutdown innings. Ideally, the right route to go would be to have Sanchez pitch 4 or 5 innings and then follow that up with 2 or 3 innings of relief by their impact starting pitcher, ace, and workhorse that appeared in relief the other night, Max Scherzer. Of course, the Nationals have said that Scherzer is their Game Four starter as mentioned previously, but don't be surprised if he ends up appearing in this evenings game. It would be a similar situation to what the Washington Nationals did in the National League Wild Card Game against the Milwaukee Brewers where Max Scherzer started the game and threw five innings followed up by Stephen Strasburg throwing three shutdown innings in relief. For the Washington Nationals, it would be wonderful if Max Scherzer could do the same and then have either Sean Doolittle or Daniel Hudson close out the game.

For that plan to work perfectly, the Nationals will need Anibal Sanchez to be performing at peak level which is certainly possible. However, Sanchez has been much more effective during the first time through an opposing team's lineup compared to the second of third time through. Take a look at the chart below for more on that courtesy once again of FanGraphs.

Based on the data in this chart, it's fair to say that the longer Anibal Sanchez stays in a game, the less effective he becomes. Therefore, it is going to be critical that he is able to get every out that he can during the first few innings of the game (1-3) and then continue pitching into the 4th and potentially the 5th inning as well. Of course, this is all being predetermined and the game is going to decipher how long Sanchez goes and what ends up happening, but the Washington Nationals aren't going to want to keep him on the mound for long.