Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: 2019 American League Championship Series Premier

Starting Saturday night, the Houston Astros will square off against the New York Yankees in Houston for Game One of the American League Championship Series. This is a series that many baseball fans have been looking forward to ever since the start of June and were hoping would happen based on how exciting it was during the 2017 MLB Postseason when the Houston Astros ended up being crowned World Series Champions.

As a result, there is already plenty of hype surrounding this year's series between the Astros and Yankees and rightfully so. Both of these teams were the top two teams in the American League during the 2019 regular season and there are plenty of star-studded names on both sides of the field. From a regular season standpoint, the Astros came away victorious in the six matchups that they played against the Yankees finishing with a 4-3 record overall, while allowing (37) runs and scoring (39). In one of the series in May, the Houston Astros ended up sweeping the Yankees, but it came at a time when the Yankees were just starting to experience the injury bug that seemingly plagued them all season long.

One of the most intriguing aspects of the upcoming American League Championship Series is the fact that both teams can really swing the bats and cause havoc on the base paths altogether. During the 2019 regular season, both teams finished with two of the top three offenses in baseball. For the Houston Astros, they concluded the season with a cumulative slash line of: .274/.352/.495 over 6,394 plate appearances with an overall Offensive rating of (196.6), a (40.8) Wins Above Replacement (WAR) value, and a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) value of (125). On the other side of the field, the New York Yankees wrapped up the season with a slash line of: .267/.339/.490 over 6,392 plate appearances with an Offensive rating of (130.8), a WAR of (32.7), and a wRC+ value of (117). When you look at those two sets of numbers, they are very similar in many regards and both lineups are deep enough to cause havoc on the opposing team.

For the New York Yankees, their specialty during the 2019 regular season was their ability to hit with two outs in an inning. In those situations, which accounted for a total of 2,017 plate appearances, Yankees hitters combined for a .267/.342/.493 slash line with a (.315) Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and an overall Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of (.349). For the Houston Astros, being able to hit the pull the ball with men in scoring position was their main specialty. In those situations, which accounted for a total of 1,676 plate appearances over the course of the regular season, Astros hitters put up the second highest pull percentage (44.3%) in all of baseball, behind only the Toronto Blue Jays. Furthermore, with men in scoring position, the Astros had the fifth highest walk percentage (12.1%) and the highest Isolated Power value in all of baseball (.235).

In regard to the personnel that make up both lineups, the Houston Astros main stars include designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, who caught plenty of attention during his rookie season and soldified the case to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award, along with second baseman Jose Altuve, and third baseman, Alex Bregman. If that's still not enough talent, then take a look at shortstop Carlos Correa along with all three outfielders: Michael Brantley, George Springer, and Josh Reddick. All four of those players are tremendously talented at the plate and Alex Bregman has likely done enough this year to convince voters to award him with the American League Most Valuable Player Award over another impactful player, in the American League West with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, outfielder Mike Trout.

Switching over to the New York Yankees now, a lot of their offensive success didn't come from guys that were penciled in on Opening Day as impactful players or bats that were viewed as power pieces. Given the amount of injuries that the Yankees experienced throughout the course of the 2019 regular season, they had to rely on their depth quite a bit and several names emerged from the mix including DJ LeMahieu who continues to prove what a valuable free agent signing he was last offseason along with second baseman Gleyber Torres and third baseman Giovanny Urshela. In addition to those three names, the Yankees also have shortstop Didi Gregorious, who knows a thing or two about impactful hitting, along with outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Looking at both pitching staffs now, it's fair to say that the Houston Astros have the upper hand when it comes to the starting rotation, but the New York Yankees have the advantage when it comes to the bullpen. During the 2019 regular season, the Houston Astros pitching staff concluded the year with a 3.66 ERA over 1,462.1 innings of work with a (3.98) Fielding Independent Percentage (FIP), a strikeouts-per-9 (K/9) rate of (10.28), and an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.219). On the other side, the New York Yankees pitching staff wrapped up the 2019 regular season with a 4.31 ERA over 1,443.0 innings pitched with a (4.47) FIP, a K/9 rate of (9.57), and an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.246). As you can see, the Houston Astros pitching staff concluded the season with an ERA almost a run better than the New York Yankees and had a higher overall strikeouts-per-9 rate which is impressive considering some of the flame throwers that makeup the Yankees bullpen.

As previously mentioned, the Houston Astros have the upper hand when it comes to the starting rotation and it's hard for the other 29 teams in baseball to beat the 1-2-3 punch that the Astros currently possess in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke. While Greinke wasn't dominate in his start during the American League Divisional Series Game Three against the Tampa Bay Rays, he has the stuff, the track record, and the demeanor to be just as good as both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. As a starting rotation unit during the 2019 regular season, the Astros finished with the highest strikeout percentage (28.9%), had the second lowest WHIP of any team at (1.09) putting them just ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and concluded the season with the best SIERA (Skills-Interactive Earned Run Average) (3.73) in all of baseball.

Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average, otherwise known as SIERA, has become an increasingly popular metric to analyze how effective pitchers are, both from a starting standpoint and a relief standpoint, over the past few seasons. As such, SIERA strives to figure out exactly what makes a pitcher successful and attempts to figure out if the pitchers ERA should have been higher or lower than what is represented on paper or if the ERA was spot on altogether. Essentially, if you were to put a pitchers strikeouts, walks, and Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) together inside of a blender, you would likely come out with the perfect recipe for what that pitcher's SIERA should look like and how it would rank among other competitors of the same skill level.

For the New York Yankees, as previously mentioned, they have the upper hand when it comes to the bullpen and the names that makeup their relief corp. As a unit, the Yankees finished the 2019 regular season with the ninth lowest ERA in all of baseball at (4.08) over 664.2 innings of work with the third highest strikeout percentage (26.4%), a (.239) Opponent Batting Average Against, and the sixth highest left on-base percentage at (75.2%). Throughout the course of the 2019 regular season, the Yankees often had issues with their starting rotation which forced them to turn to their relievers quite often and put them under a heavy workload. However, New York Yankees Senior Vice President and General Manager, Brian Cashman, was smart enough to build up the bullpen with a substantial amount of depth over the past few seasons and that has given skipper, Aaron Boone, plenty of different options and looks to work with.

The Houston Astros lineup is fairly balanced as it consists of three primary left-handed bats in the aforementioned Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, and Josh Reddick with the rest of the primary starting lineup hitters being right-handed. As a result, the Yankees bullpen has had a fair amount of success against hitters on both sides of the plate. Against righties during the 2019 regular season, Yankees relievers combined for a slash line of: .242/.318/.416 over 408.0 innings of work with (437) strikeouts, a wOBA of (.312), and an overall walk-to-strikeout percentage of (15.7%). In matchups against lefties, the Yankees relief corp put up a .242/.318/.403 slash line over 256.2 innings pitched with (313) strikeouts, a (.307) wOBA, and a walk-to-strikeout percentage of (19.1%). It's amazing that the Yankees bullpen finished with the same batting average AND on-base percentage against both lefties and righties! Talk about rarity!

To conclude this preview for the 2019 American League Championship Series between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees, let's focus on an impactful matchup for both sides. Starting with the New York Yankees, let's take a look at how DJ LeMahieu performed against righties. The Houston Astros have three well-known right-handers anchoring down the top of their starting rotation in the aforementioned Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke so it's going to play a big role in how successful LeMahieu is over the course of this series. Take a look at the Hot Zone Map below, courtesy of ESPN, about how LeMahieu performed against righties at the plate during the 2019 regular season.

As you can see from the chart, a lot of his contact comes right smack in the middle of the strike zone over the heart of the plate and in the upper-right quadrant. Given that Zack Greinke is going to start Game One for the Houston Astros, take a look at how Greinke did against right-handers during the course of the 2019 regular season at the plate and compare it to LeMahieu's chart above.

DJ LeMahieu is going to be a serious threat at the plate against both lefties and righties and a threat for any pitcher on the Houston Astros staff, but this is an intriguing matchup. As you can see the square along the bottom of the strike zone right above the heart of the plate is an area where Zack Greinke has had a lot of contact made against him. When you look at DJ LeMahieu's heat map, that same square is in red and is a "hot zone" where he made a lot of contact this season and the same applies for the second square in the middle of the row on the right side of the strike zone. Therefore, if Zack Greinke is going to be successful against DJ LeMahieu, he needs to focus on throwing the ball on the right side of home plate or near the upper-left quadrant of the strike zone. Of course, some of those are "hot zones" for LeMahieu, but that is the plan of attack that Greinke should be going into Game One with.

On the other side for the Houston Astros, an intriguing matchup to watch will be Michael Brantley. During the 2019 regular season, Brantley combined for a slash line of: .387/.441/.452 over 31 at bats with (12) hits, (2) doubles, (2) RBI, (3) walks, and (6) strikeouts against the New York Yankees. For Michael Brantley, much of the damage for him came against righties this year as expected when looking at the matchup statistics for a left-handed hitter against right-handed pitching. For more, take a look at the Hot Zone Map below, courtesy once again of ESPN.

As you can see, virtually every part of the strike zone is red because of the contact that Michael Brantley made in those areas of the zone. Of the 9 squares in the zone, only two of them are blue and two of them are a lighter shade of red, but a lot of the contact overall has come down in the lower part of the contact and strike zones. Therefore, a big message for the New York Yankees pitching staff is to be very cautious when Brantley is in the box and to strive to not throw the ball down in the zone. The Yankees have a couple of right-handed pitchers such as: Luis Severino, Adam Ottavino, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Tommy Kahnle. However, for this matchup, let's take a look at Masahiro Tanka, the Game One starting pitcher for the Yankees, and how he fared against left-handed batters over the span of the 2019 regular season.

Unlike the previous matchup that focused on Zack Greinke, this Hot Zone Map focuses on pitch location and where Masahiro Tanaka threw all of his pitches against left-handed hitters during the regular season. As you can see from the graphic, two of the areas where Michael Brantley makes a lot of contact at the bottom of the zone are light blue with the one right above the heart of the plate in the middle being a darker shade of red which indicates that there has been contact made, but not as much as other areas of the strike zone. A bulk of the pitches that Tanaka threw against left-handers were on the right-hand side of the strike zone near the bottom generally in areas where Michael Brantley has not been as successful. 

The reason why these matchups are so intriguing and important to look at is because both the Houston Astros and New York Yankees front office members are constantly evaluating this type of data and using it in their pre-game meetings when a game plan is being formulated. With the amount of data, analytics, and metrics available at the fingertips of those individuals, it is guaranteed that this is the type of information being discussed. 

Whether or not DJ LeMahieu is able to hit Zack Greinke around or Michael Brantley is able to defy Masahiro Tanaka's Hot Zone Map and make contact against him, remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure and that's the fact that all four of those players are going to play a critical role in their teams success over the course of this series. Regardless of what the final result ends up being, it's going to be a series that features a juggernaut offense on both sides, a dominate starting rotation for the Houston Astros, and a stacked bullpen for the New York Yankees. Whoever ends up coming away victorious at the conclusion of this series will represent the American League in the World Series so may the best team win!