Houston, We Have a Problem.....in the Pitching Department?

"Houston, We Have a Problem" are some of the most famous words uttered in American history and originated during the Apollo 13 mission when the crew was trying to communicate back to Houston about a major technical problem. For the Houston Astros, they might not currently be on a space mission with an intent to land on the moon, but they are on a mission to bring a second World Series Championship back to the city of Houston. However, the quest to do that certainly hasn't been easy and there is one major pitfall that continues to stand between the Houston Astros and their end goal.

You see, while the Houston Astros have a very strong starting rotation on paper in right-handers Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke, things get a lot murkier after that and all three of those guys haven't necessarily been lockdown dominate this postseason like many thought. In the World Series alone, Justin Verlander put up a 6.00 ERA over 6 innings during his start in Game One, Gerrit Cole followed that up pitching seven innings in Game Two but giving up (5) earned runs - the most any team had scored off him in months, and Zack Greinke hasn't been all that dominate or able to pitch deep into the ballgame.

Take a look at Zack Greinke's start last night in Game Three, for example. In last night's contest, Greinke pitched 4 and 2/3 innings and while he did only allow (1) earned run, Greinke gave up (3) walks and had to throw (95) pitches over that span. Given the circumstances and the importance of the game, Greinke certainly kept the Houston Astros chances of winning at a high margin, but for a team that needed him to give them more length, it wasn't that great of an outing.

During the entire postseason, the Houston Astros starting rotation has been middle of the pack and not performed at the same level as the Washington Nationals starters. As a rotation, the Astros have combined for a postseason ERA of 3.59 over 80.1 innings of work with (32) earned runs, (29) walks, (97) strikeouts, and an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.224). While the Astros have been able to trout out three starting pitchers in the aforementioned Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke, they don't have a fourth starting pitcher like the Washington Nationals do, which has forced the issue of the team having to rely on a bullpen game.

As was the case in Game Six of the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees, the Houston Astros will once again roll out with a bullpen game for today's Game Four of the World Series. Not only does that bring about plenty of concerns about the overall state of their pitching staff and the amount of usage on the arms of their relievers on the heels of Greinke's start last night, it also brings forth the issue that the Astros lack having that fourth starting pitcher. As mentioned previously, the Washington Nationals have a four-man starting rotation with RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Stephen Strasburg, LHP Patrick Corbin, and RHP Anibal Sanchez.

Yes, the Houston Astros have a talented group of starting pitchers, but when they don't pitch deep or they struggle in their outing, it ends up taxing the bullpen and that could be the ultimate thing that defines who ends up taking home the World Series Championship trophy when all is said and done. So far this postseason, the Astros bullpen has put up an ERA of almost a run worse than their starting rotation has and has also been middle of the pack. Over 44.2 innings of work this postseason, the Astros bullpen has combined for a 4.23 ERA with (21) earned runs, (20) walks, (54) strikeouts, and an Opponent Batting Average Against of (.264).

Therefore, the issue heading into today's contest is going to be whether or not right-handed pitcher, Jose Urquidy, will be able to provide quality depth for the Astros. There's a couple of different situations that this could go in and it's going to effect how the remainder of the series ends up playing out, assuming that the series goes the full seven games. For example, Jose Urquidy started seven games for the Houston Astros this season averaging a total of almost (5) innings per game started. If Urquidy is able to provide the Astros with that much depth in tonight's contest, then things will look quite promising regarding the status of Houston's pitching staff moving forward.

However, if Jose Urquidy is only able to go two or three innings tonight, then that leaves skipper A.J. Hinch & his coaching staff with some very valuable decisions to make regarding tonight's game and the future state of the bullpen. In fact, an argument could be made that tonight's game is the most pivotal game of the World Series because of that work load factor on the pitching staff alone. The bullpen trio of right-handed pitchers Will Harris, Joe Smith, and Roberto Osuna has been extremely important for A.J. Hinch this postseason, but all three relievers appeared in last night's game and logged an inning of work or more.

During this postseason alone, RHP Will Harris, who was the Astros best reliever down the stretch during the 2019 regular season, has logged 8.1 innings of work, but has been virtually unhittable posting a 0.00 ERA over that span. Furthermore, RHP Joe Smith has thrown in 7.1 innings this postseason and faced (26) batters, while closer Roberto Osuna has logged 8.2 innings of his own and has recorded two saves over three opportunities. Although it might not seem like a lot of innings, when you add that all up it equals out to be 24.1 innings of work this postseason from all three relievers. Depending on tonight's game and how far Jose Urquidy can pitch, that number could grow by six or seven more innings which would leave significant question marks for Game Five and potentially Game Six and Seven of this series - should it go on that long.

One thing that has been incredibly difficult for the Houston Astros is the fact that they do not possess a single left-handed reliever in their bullpen. However, the aforementioned right-hander, Will Harris, has been the Astros go-to in situations against lefties and has been successful against them all season long. So that factor also weighs into the equation and will have to figure heavily into how A.J. Hinch and his coaching staff navigate through the bullpen both for tonight's game and moving forward in the series.

Looking ahead to tonight's starting pitcher, the aforementioned Jose Urquidy, he has been valuable for the Houston Astros and should be able to keep the entire Washington Nationals lineup on their toes. Take a look at Urquidy's pitch arsenal chart, courtesy of Baseball Savant, for more on the types of pitches he throws, where those pitches are located in respect to the strike zone, and the percentage of time each one is thrown.

Furthermore, a majority of the time Jose Urquidy is going to get ahead of the Washington Nationals hitters as illustrated by his First Pitch Swing Percentage rate of (26.3%) and has the ability to keep the Nationals hitters on their toes as mentioned previously. During the 2019 regular season, Urquidy had a cumulative Swing Percentage of (45.9%), Whiff Percentage of (28.3%), and had a cumulative Strike Zone Swing Percentage of (63.8%). For the Washington Nationals, it's going to be important to make Jose Urquidy get behind in the count and throw more pitches, if they wish to have him leave the game early and make A.J. Hinch and Company make difficult decisions about which reliever to use next.

As indicated in the graphic above, Jose Urquidy's primary pitch is his Four-Seam Fastball, which he threw (46.8%) of the time during the 2019 regular season. However, his slider is another valuable pitch and could cause some chaos for Juan Soto, who has become a postseason phenom for the Washington Nationals this October and who just celebrated his twenty-first birthday yesterday. For more on that, take a look at the chart below which contains data from FanGraphs on Soto's approach to sliders, from the 2019 regular season.

As you can see from the data, this is going to be one match-up to watch in tonight's game with Jose Urquidy on the mound. More often that not, Juan Soto hasn't excelled against the slider pitch based on his overall strikeout percentage and strike zone swing percentage, but if he is lucky he can certainly generate some action on the base paths as indicated by both his walk rate at (16.0%) and his on-base percentage at (.321). Given that the Washington Nationals have relied on Juan Soto in the fourth spot of their batting lineup, it could cause for there to be a situation or two where Soto strikes out and fails to bring in runners on the base paths. Granted, all of that ultimately will depend on how deep Jose Urquidy goes in his start tonight.

Another important matchup to watch will be Washington Nationals third baseman, Anthony Rendon against Jose Urquidy's changeup. For more on that, once again take a look at the chart below, courtesy of data compiled by FanGraphs.

With this pitching matchup, it's one that is likely to favor Anthony Rendon and what's really fascinating is how much more disciplined he has been at the plate this year when seeing the changeup compared to even last season. During the 2019 regular season, Rendon saw a total of (284) changeups which resulted in a walk percentage of (12.9%), as indicated in the chart above. However, during the 2018 regular season, Rendon saw (185) changeups, but only had a walk rate of (3.4%) against that pitch. Granted, he saw almost (100) more changeups during this season compared to last, but it could prove to be pivotal in tonight's contest. 

Furthermore, Anthony Rendon's total swinging strike percentage has changed drastically as well on that pitch. Last season, Rendon had a swinging strike percentage of (10.3%) against changeups, but this season it sat at (6.0%), as indicated above. If Jose Urquidy is able to throw his changeup at varying levels and degrees in the strike zone, then he could wind up keeping Rendon on his toes and win the matchup. If not, it could very well end up in a groundball being hit down the third base line for a triple or a ball potentially ending up in the seats for a home run. 

Despite the matchups and what potential challenges lie ahead for the Houston Astros, the fact of the matter is that the team needs right-handed pitcher, Jose Urquidy, to pitch deep in tonight's contest otherwise it could bring about significant issues regarding the state of the Houston Astros pitching staff both tonight and in the future during this series. Although the Astros were always viewed as the favorites on paper because of the three workhouses in their starting rotation with right-handers Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke, they are in a bit of a merky situation right now in the pitching department and that could ultimately be what decides the winner of this World Series. 

While "Houston, We Have a Problem" were words muttered during the Apollo 13 mission to the moon, those are words that the Houston Astros certainly don't want to have to say and it all starts with tonight's game with Jose Urquidy on the mound.