2019 MLB Projected Standings - Part II: The Central
For the first part of this report, let's focus on the American League Central. The AL Central is a division that could be in a time of transition in regard to who holds the top seat and ultimately holds out for the division crown. At the moment, the Cleveland Indians look like the favorite to win the division to many people, but do not discount the Minnesota Twins especially after they made several quality, under-the-radar moves this offseason. In fact, if they were to capitalize on all of those moves and add one of Dalla Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel, they would certainly be favored to win the division by more parties. After the Indians and Twins, you start to re-enter the portion of the division that is in "rebuild mode" which consists of the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Kansas City Royals. Since there are so many rebuilding teams in this division, many expect it to once again be the weakest division in all of baseball.
With that being said, here is how we expect the American League Central to look when all is said and done.
1. Minnesota Twins (AL Central Champions)
- Projected Record: 92-70
- Winning Percentage: .568
- Team MVP: CF Byron Buxton
Yes, you are reading this right, the Minnesota Twins at least by our standards, are projected to be our pick for the American League Central. It's easy to see why some might discount Minnesota simply because of their lack of pitching, but you can't overlook a starting rotation that consists of Jose Berrios at the top, an offense that has a ton of high potential, and a bullpen that features some intriguing arms. Would we love to see the Twins add Keuchel or Kimbrel to the mix? Absolutely, but that would only be icing on the cake for a team that currently leads baseball in Spring Training home runs (40).
2. Cleveland Indians (AL Wild Card II)
- Projected Record: 87-75
- Winning Percentage: .537
- Team MVP: 3B Jose Ramirez
Even though the Cleveland Indians clearly have one of the best starting rotations in the game and two studs within the middle of their lineup, in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, their outfield and bullpen shortfalls are going to be what prevent them from winning the AL Central crown. The Indians are going into the year with an outfield of second-tier names and that could have a bit of hit on their overall production as a team. Still, expect them to find a way into the playoffs through the second Wild Card, but don't be shocked if they come in second place.
3. Chicago White Sox
- Projected Record: 72-90
- Winning Percentage: .444
- Team MVP: SP Reynaldo Lopez
The 2019 season with be another one of growing pains for the Chicago White Sox, as they continue to try and find their identity, while keeping an eye to the future. In fact, it might be a good thing that Chicago failed to land Manny Machado or Bryce Harper this offseason because it will give the team a chance to play one of their young prospects instead. With that being said, the team still has one of the better farm systems in the game meaning the organization is stacked with some nice talent and hopefully that will begin to show on a more regular basis this coming season.
4. Detroit Tigers
- Projected Record: 67-95
- Winning Percentage: .414
- Team MVP: 3B Jeimer Candelario
As will be the case with the Chicago White Sox, the Detroit Tigers will also experience a season of growing pains as they continue to navigate their way through the rebuild process. However, unlike the White Sox, the Detroit Tigers are probably a year or two behind in the process in terms of building up their farm system and having quality prospects that can play everyday positions. Still, you sort of forget Miguel Cabrera is a part of the Tigers 25-man roster so, it will be interesting to see what type of effect he has on the youngsters this year, if he can stay healthy.
5. Kansas City Royals
- Projected Record: 65-97
- Winning Percentage: .401
- Team MVP: 2B Whit Merrifield
Looking ahead to the 2019 regular season, the Kansas City Royals will once again be focused on the future, while giving young position players the opportunity to play on an everyday basis. The Royals are going to be one of the better rebuilding teams to watch because speed is going to be a huge component of how they play on the field everyday. When you have the likes of Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, and Billy Hamilton in the lineup, you know as a team you are going to rake up the stolen bases and will try to outdo your opponent by using that speed to your advantage. It's a turn-back-the-clock type of approach, but one that should work out in the Royals favor.
Alright, now that the American League Central is taken care of, let's switch over to the other division that covers the central portion of the country - the National League Central. Outside of the National League East, one could make the argument that the National League Central happens to be the best division in all of baseball because there are five teams that are legitimately fielding a competitive team out there everyday. At the top, you have the Chicago Cubs who can never be counted out followed by the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that is coming into this year hungry for another division championship, then the Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, and the improved Cincinnati Reds. The Milwaukee Brewers were the division champions last year, but some wonder if they will have enough pitching to replicate what they did last season. Furthermore, don't count out the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will have a full year of Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon at the top of their starting rotation, or the Cincinnati Reds who have improved both their starting rotation and offense this offseason.
With that being said, here is how we expect the National League Central to look when all is said and done.
1. St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central Champions)
- Projected Record: 91-71
- Winning Percentage: .562
- Team MVP: 1B Paul Goldschmidt
After an offseason of adding first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, and reliever, Andrew Miller, to the mix the St. Louis Cardinals are poised to be an ultra-competitive team this season and will find a way to surge to the top of the NL Central. With a young starting rotation that includes plenty of depth, an improved offense with the aforementioned Paul Goldschmidt, and a bullpen that includes not only Andrew Miller at the back end, but Jordan Hicks as well, St. Louis has plenty of talent to make it happen. On a national level, St. Louis is one of the best baseball cities in the country and they will have a lot to celebrate this October in the playoffs.
2. Chicago Cubs (NL Wild Card II)
- Projected Record: 86-76
- Winning Percentage: .531
- Team MVP: SS Javier Baez
The Chicago Cubs have a Top 5 starting rotation on paper with plenty of veteran arms and have a terrific offensive core, but their bullpen could end up being the Achilles heel that prevents them from taking home the NL Central crown. Still, Cubs fans shouldn't be too down that the Cubs find a way to get into the playoffs via the second NL Wild Card spot and there should still be plenty of excitement to celebrate. Look for Kris Bryant to rebound this season, Javier Baez to outdo what he did last year, and the Cubs starting rotation to end the year with some of the best stats in the game, if all of those arms find a way to stay healthy.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
- Projected Record: 85-77
- Winning Percentage: .525
- Team MVP: RP Jeremy Jeffress
In a perfect world, the Milwaukee Brewers would find a way to join both the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the playoffs, but since there are only so many playoff spots available, Milwaukee just misses. It's certainly not going to be a season where they lay down and give up completely though and will be a dog fight until the very end, but it's going to be difficult for them to find a way to replicate the success they had last season and expect all of their pitchers to perform at the same level. Pitching is likely going to be an issue for Milwaukee this year, unless of course they find an arm to add mid-season at the trade deadline which is certainly possible, but as far as their offense goes, everything should be clicking away on that front.
4. Cincinnati Reds
- Projected Record: 81-81
- Winning Percentage: .500
- Team MVP: OF Yasiel Puig
After an exciting offseason, Cincinnati Reds fans should be thrilled with what ends up resulting in a fourth place division. Yes, it's not a playoff spot which is something every team should strive for, but it's a heck of a lot better than finishing in the cellar like Cincinnati has the past handful of years. Looking at the starting rotation, which now consists of Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Alex Wood, that's some nice stability that will allow some of the organization's young arms to continue to mature. Switching over to the lineup now, both Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp should have terrific seasons together in the middle of the batting order and should compliment the Reds young position player core nicely.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Projected Record: 79-83
- Winning Percentage: .488
- Team MVP: SP Jameson Taillon
Some could legitimately make the argument that the Pittsburgh Pirates belong in fourth place, with the Cincinnati Reds once again occupying the cellar, but at the moment, it feels like the Pirates are still missing that one big bat to make their offense click. Sure, the team has some exciting potential in guys such as: Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, and Corey Dickerson, but for most of those guys, the Pirates are going to need huge bounce back years. It's definitely possible, but could be a hard task to accomplish in the end. If there was one thing to carefully watch in Pittsburgh, it's going to be their starting rotation which consists of Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, and Jordan Lyles.
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