Why Analytics Are So Important Compared to Intuition

Analytics have become the latest trend in baseball over the past couple of years and there is no sign that they will be going anywhere anytime soon. From crazy ideas, such as batting a teams best hitter in the leadoff spot to dramatic defensive shifting to not allowing a starting pitcher to complete a game, analytics has taken over and erased many of the traditions that Americans once celebrated in the game of baseball.

For better or worse, analytics, also commonly referred to as sabermetrics, are here to stay and won't be going anywhere. In fact, many teams front offices have wholeheartedly embraced the idea of using analytics on a daily basis and now have departments solely dedicated to analyzing statistics, looking for the best pitcher-and-hitter matchups, and trying to determine the launch angle of certain hitters in terms of where to position the team's fielders during a given situation.

Regardless of how effective or ineffective analytics might be, it is important that teams focus on using the information provided to them to give themselves a competitive advantage rather than allowing their intuition or gut instinct to take over like we saw during yesterday's Yankees and Blue Jays game.

David Robertson was on the mound when Josh Donaldson came up to bat. There were two runners on base when Robertson walked Donaldson to load the bases up and face Blue Jays slugging first baseman, Justin Smoak. Smaok already launched a home run in the 7th inning off of Tommy Kahnle, but Robertson was confident that he would be able to strand the bases loaded.

Need not say more, Smoak ended up launching a Grand Slam off of Robertson and ultimately made Aaron Boone and the Yankees pay for a bad decision in the making. Granted, Boone gave Robertson the choice to either face Josh Donaldson or Justin Smoak, but in the end this is a perfect example of why teams need to rely on analytical and statistical information rather than pure choice.

It is important to note that Smoak was 4-for-11 heading into yesterday's game with 2 doubles, 2 RBI, and 2 strikeouts. Smoak ended up finishing the day yesterday 3-for-4 with 6 RBI and now has a .467 batting average and a .529 on-base percentage over 17 plate appearances on the year. Of course, those numbers are going to drop as the season wears on and as the sample size gets much larger, but the idea here is that, Smoak is obviously at the start of another hot streak and managers need to be aware of that.

The whole reason for analytics and sabermetrics is to give team's an idea of who to bat when and what pitcher to have on the mound to give them the best competitive advantage. You don't simply just ask a pitcher if they want to face a certain batter or not and expect to have long-term results. Some might argue with that, but that's not an effective way of winning or locking down a ball game.

Now, there most certainly are situations where gut instinct might trump analytical numbers or information, but more often than not, analytics is there to help guide a manager and their coaching staff in various situations. For instance, looking at the Yankees and Blue Jays matchup from this weekend, Justin Smoak is 10-for-27 over his career against CC Sabathia with 1 double, 2 home runs, 7 RBI, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts, and a .406 on-base percentage.

When the Blue Jays go up against the Yankees, you don't think that Blue Jays manager, John Gibbons, wants Justin Smoak in the lineup? That is offensive key cog and something that gives Toronto a true competitive advantage and puts them in the best position to win. The same can be said for Giancarlo Stanton who is 7-for-12 over his big league career against Blue Jays starting pitcher, Jaime Garcia, with 1 double, 3 home runs, 6 RBI, 5 walks, 2 strikeouts, and a .706 on-base percentage. Of course, Aaron Boone and the Yankees coaching staff are going to want Stanton in the lineup when they face Garcia.

Not only that, but analytics also exist to give managers and their coaching staff an idea of the best matchups late in a game when a team might have a lead or the score is tied. In those situations, it is more important than ever to have a solid understanding of which hitters succeed against which relievers on the other team and which relievers are able to strikeout which hitters.

So the entire point of this post is to drive home the idea that while there might be instances where it looks like gut instinct and intuition should overrule analytical numbers and data, more often than not, the analytical information is correct. Given the fact that teams invest so much money into developing these sophisticated analytic departments means that every team needs to use that information to their advantage and execute the best decision-making processes as possible during a game.

If they don't, then what's the point of even having an analytics department or investing significant amounts of money into it?