Whats Going on with Cole Hamels?

Cole Hamels has always been one of those starting pitchers that has developed the reputation of being a top of the rotation guy and someone who the Texas Rangers would view as a piece that could bring a few quality prospects back in return. Well, at least that was the notion heading into this season.

Hamels, who turned 34 last December, has now completed four starts for the Rangers. Through those four starts, Hamels now has a 4.50 ERA over 22.0 IP, a 5.96 FIP, and a -0.2 WAR. In addition, Hamels walks-per-9 rate currently sits at 4.50, he's got a home runs-per-9 rate of 2.86, but still has an impressive strikeouts-per-9 rate of 12.27.

While a lot of those things are cause for concern, what's even more concerning is that Hamels has experienced a dip in velocity. According to FanGraphs, here is Hamels velocity for the past four seasons:

From L to R: Fastball, Cutter, Curveball 

In addition to the three pitches listed above, Hamels also throws a changeup, but thus far he is throwing it nearly the same as he was last year. Last season, Hamels threw his changeup 20.7% with an average velocity of 83.2, while this year he's thrown it an average of 21.9% of the time and has a 82.0 velo on it.

Furthermore, as you can see from the table, Hamels has lost 2 MPH on his fastball thus far which has caused him to experience an uptick in how often he throws his cutter. Last year, Hamels threw his cutter 18.6% of the time, while this year through four starts, he's thrown it 29.8% of the time.

Amid all of that, when you think back to 2015 and 2016 when the Texas Rangers had Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, you always think of a 1-2 punch that was capable of raking up a lot of innings along with a lot of strikeouts. While Hamels, has an impressive strikeout rate so far this year (12.27), he hasn't recoded more than 200 strikeouts in a single season since 2015 when he raked up 215. Granted, Hamels missed time last year with a right oblique strain, but still it's been trending in the wrong direction ever since.

From a league perspective, among American League starting pitchers so far this season, Cole Hamels leads with a home run-to-fastball rate of 35.0%. In addition, Hamels FIP value of 5.96 ranks second to only Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners, and has a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) value of .320, which currently ranks 9th in the American League.

Maybe all of this is being taken out of proportion and it's basic April panic mode, but it also might be somewhat cause for concern especially given that Hamels is now 34 years old and might be on a slow decline in terms of how effective he is moving forward. After all, Hamels did make his major league debut back in 2006 at the ripe young age of 22 with the Philadelphia Phillies so there's a lot of mileage on his arm.

For the Rangers, this also could be a bit troubling especially if Hamels isn't able to regain his form or become the pitcher that they thought he could be. Going into the season, the Texas Rangers never looked like legitimate contenders on paper and they certainly haven't played that way on the field thus far. In fact, with the injuries that Texas has experienced with Delino DeShields, Rougned Odor, and now Elvis Andrus, you could make a case that they may very well end the season with one of the top three draft picks just because they lose that many games.

Don't overlook the fact that the Rangers have to compete with the reigning World Series Champion, Houston Astros, or the surprise, Los Angeles Angels, and never quit, Seattle Mariners, either. If Texas continues playing the way it has, then come July at the trade deadline, they are going to find themselves in the sellers seat and ready to auction off some veteran pieces which would presumably include Cole Hamels unless he continue's down this path. If he does, forget about any opportunity to trade him to a contender and receive a quality prospect back in return because no team is going to want to have Hamels on their staff if he is going to have an ERA above 4, a FIP above 5.00, and a walks-per-9 rate over the league average.

With that being said and based on Cole Hamels track record, you'd like to think that all of this is just a fluke and he hasn't reached midseason form yet, but it's always concerning when a starting pitcher starts seen an increase in their numbers on the field and a drop in velocity. Hopefully that changes soon, but for now, Hamels is a guy to watch and to keep an eye on.