National League Wild Card Premier: The Washington Nationals vs. The Milwaukee Brewers

Tomorrow night, the MLB playoffs officially start with the Washington Nationals squaring off against the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Wild Card Game at Nationals Park in Washington DC. For anyone that likes an exciting game, this game is bound to be a good one with lots of strategy and decision-making involved.

Going into the game, the Washington Nationals will likely be viewed as the favorite considering that they have a solid 1-2-3 punch at the top of their starting rotation in Max Scherzer, who will be starting the game, along with Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. In addition, the Washington Nationals have a very deep bullpen and a lineup that consists of some serious pop in Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick, and the speedy young outfielders Juan Soto and Victor Robles. All of those players besides Howie Kendrick were penciled in as regular starters at the beginning of the season, but overtime Kendrick has turned into a significant role player and been very successful in a number of different key situations.

The Washington Nationals will play in their first postseason game, ever under the guidance of Davey Martinez and his coaching staff, and are coming off a hot second half of the regular season. Over the course of the second half of the season, the Washington Nationals posted a (46-27) record, which was good enough for a (.630) winning percentage. After starting the year with a (24-33) record over the months of March, April, and May, the Washington Nationals were able to have a strong finish to the season and that ultimately helped propel them into a postseason berth. When you combine the hot second half of the Washington Nationals with the strength of their starting rotation and the massive potential of their lineup, it gives them an edge over the Milwaukee Brewers heading into this game.

However, while the Milwaukee Brewers are the underdog for many people, don't sleep on them either. As Milwaukee has proven all season long, they are up for a challenge and ready for whatever obstacles might sit in front of them. For proof of that, look no further than the record that the Milwaukee Brewers put up over the month of September (20-7) or the record they put up without Christian Yelich, a National League Most Valuable Player candidate, being in their lineup (14-5). All season long, the Milwaukee Brewers had to overcome injuries to a certain extent and are heading into the Wild Card game with a few injured corps of their own.

Ryan Braun, who missed a couple games at the end of the season with a calf strain, is expected to be in the starting lineup against the Washington Nationals. Although, the status of outfielder, Lorenzo Cain, remains cloudy due to a left ankle sprain that could end up sidelining him for the game. That is two big losses for the Milwaukee Brewers and there is some questions about Mike Moustakas and some elbow pain that he has been experiencing. Despite that, once again, as the Brewers have shown all season long, it might end up not being that big of a deal after all, as the team relies on other role players to help them capture the victory.

Turning back to the starting pitching matchup, as mentioned previously, Max Scherzer will get the ball for the Washington Nationals, while Brandon Woodruff has been named the starter for the Milwaukee Brewers. Scherzer has established a track record that speaks for itself at the big league level and has a cumulative postseason ERA of 3.73 over 82.0 innings of work with (100) strikeouts and a (1.11) WHIP, dating back to the 2011 American League Divisional Series when he was a member of the Detroit Tigers. The last postseason appearance for Max Scherzer with the Washington Nationals came during the 2017 National League Divisional Series, against the Chicago Cubs when he appeared in two different games, putting up a 3.68 ERA over 7.1 innings pitched.

On the other side, Brandon Woodruff ended the regular season as the Milwaukee Brewers best starting pitcher. During the span of the 2019 regular season, Woodruff posted a 3.62 ERA over 121.2 innings of work with a strikeouts-per-9 rate of (10.6) and a (2.9) Wins Above Replacement value. Furthermore, Woodruff averaged 90 pitches per start and held opponents to a cumulative batting line of: .240/.293/.357. The good news for the Milwaukee Brewers besides the fact that Brandon Woodruff was their best starting pitcher this season is the fact that he has swing and miss stuff and has done quite well against both lefties and righties this year. During one start against the Washington Nationals this season, Woodruff posted a 1.50 ERA over 6.0 innings of work and held the Nationals lineup to a (.190) batting average.

It is not known how deep either Max Scherzer or Brandon Woodruff will end up pitching because the Washington Nationals have several different routes they can go and the Milwaukee Brewers will likely be creative in how they end up deploying their pitching staff. For example, the Washington Nationals might elect to have Scherzer start the game and then have someone like Stephen Strasburg come into the game out of the bullpen. In fact, Davey Martinez mentioned earlier this season that Strasburg expressed a willingness to close out a game and he does have closer experience from his days in college so that is one option. Another would be to use Stephen Strasburg during the middle innings, on regular rest, and then turn things over to the bullpen which has plenty of depth and various options when every reliever is healthy and available.

For the Milwaukee Brewers, they will likely be looking for Brandon Woodruff to go as deep as possible in the game. However, it is hard to try and project how deep Woodruff can go considering that he only pitched (4) innings during the month of September. Therefore, if Woodruff is only able to go 3 or 4 innings, then the best tactic might be to give the ball to reliever, Josh Hader, in a similar fashion as the Cleveland Indians did during the World Series a few years back with Andrew Miller. Hader is a high strikeout, high-leverage inning type of reliever and would excel in holding back the Washington Nationals lineup from scoring runs. With that being said, there is always the potential that Brandon Woodruff ends up going 5, 6, or even 7 innings too, which would only benefit the Milwaukee Brewers, and allow them to push Josh Hader back to the later innings of the game.

Over the course of the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers ended up having a clear advantage over the Washington Nationals when it came to the bullpen. Despite the depth that the Washington Nationals have and the arms they added to the mix at the July 31st Trade Deadline, Washington ended the season dead last in bullpen ERA (5.66 over 500.2 innings of work), while allowing (312) earned runs and recording (501) strikeouts. In contrast, the Milwaukee Brewers finished the season with a 4.39 ERA over 670.2 innings of work, which put them 17th in all of baseball, with (321) earned runs and (761) strikeouts. Furthermore, both the Nationals and Brewers experienced blown saves quite a bit over the span of the regular season, with the Brewers recording (28) blown saves and the Nationals recording (29).

Besides Josh Hader, another impactful arm that the Milwaukee Brewers will likely use out of the bullpen during tomorrow's game (depending on how long Brandon Woodruff goes and the matchup at hand) is Drew Pomeranz, who they acquired from the San Francisco Giants prior to the July 31st Trade Deadline. Since being acquired by Milwaukee, Pomeranz put up a 2.39 ERA over 26.1 innings pitched and had a strikeouts-per-9 rate of (15.4). With that type of strikeout rate, Craig Counsell and his coaching staff might elect to use Pomeranz in a high-leverage situation where a strikeout or two might be necessary to get out of an inning. As a reliever during the 2019 regular season, Pomeranz held opposing teams to a cumulative slash line of: .165/.226/.278.

For the Washington Nationals, they will need both Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson to be on their A-game during the game and ready to pitch in any situation that they might be thrust into. For Sean Doolittle, the less high-leverage a situation is, the better he ends up performing. For example, in situations where there were runners in scoring position during the 2019 regular season, which accounted for 14.2 of the total innings that Doolittle logged, he posted a 11.05 ERA, while recording (18) earned runs and (21) strikeouts. In contrast, during situations where there is a runner at first base, Doolittle posted a 0.73 ERA over 12.1 innings of work. Stark differences for sure and something that is going to factor into how Davey Martinez manages the bullpen and the decisions he makes.

In terms of Daniel Hudson, Hudson has been the Washington Nationals best reliever this season. Over the last 30 games of the regular season, Hudson posted a 1.44 ERA over 25.0 innings of work with (23) strikeouts and a (0.88) WHIP. Depending on if the Stephen Strasburg ends up being used as a closer will have an impact on when, or if, the Washington Nationals end up relying on Daniel Hudson. However, with the Washington Nationals, Hudson recorded (6) saves over (8) save opportunities so there is a good chance that he would be able to close the door if necessary, based on that and his recent performance alone.

Switching over to the offense now, as mentioned previously, the Washington Nationals have a slight edge in that department because of the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers are without Christian Yelich and could be without Lorenzo Cain as well. The good news is the fact that Ryan Braun will be able to be in the starting lineup and should not have anything holding him back. For the Brewers to reach their full offensive potential without Yelich and Cain, they need a big bat like Braun in their lineup. In addition, with the question marks surrounding the elbow pain that Mike Moustakas has been experiencing, that is a bit of a concern as well. However, that doesn't mean that the entire Brewers lineup is devoid of anything exciting.

For starters, look no further than Yasmani Grandal, who has been very good offensively for Milwaukee. Grandal ended up finishing the regular season with a: .246/.380/.468 slash line over the span of 153 games with (28) home runs, (77) RBI, and (109) walks. Those are pretty impressive numbers for a catcher and someone that wasn't necessarily a huge factor going into the season as part of the Brewers lineup. Beyond Yasmani Grandal, don't overlook shortstop, Orlando Arcia, either and the offensive potential that he has. Over 152 games, Arcia recorded (110) hits, (16) doubles, (1) triple, (15) home runs, (59) RBI, (43) walks, and (109) strikeouts. While he was a prospect, many thought that Orlando Arcia would end up being skilled on both sides of the baseball, but to this point, he has been more of an offensive threat than a defensive one and can do damage.

As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers squared off against the Washington Nationals on 6 different occasions during the 2019 regular season. In those 6 games, the team combined for a cumulative slash line of: .322/.399/.568 over 236 at bats with Mike Moustakas doing the most damage. Over 29 at bats against the Nationals, Moustakas combined for a .379/.400/.862 slash line. Luckily, there has been no mention of the elbow pain by Craig Counsell or the Milwaukee Brewers front office so Moustakas should be healthy and performing at 100% for first pitch. Based on the numbers against the Washington Nationals this season alone, having Moustakas in the lineup healthy will be a significant boost to the overall offensive production for the Milwaukee Brewers.

On the other side, the Washington Nationals ended up wrapping up the 2019 regular season as the second best offensive team in the National League behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the season, Nationals hitters combined for a cumulative slash line of: .265/.342/.454 with (1,460) hits, (298) doubles, (27) triples, (231) home runs, and (824) RBI. As mentioned previously, the Washington Nationals have quite a bit of star studded talent in their lineup with the likes of Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmermann, Howie Kendrick, and young outfielders Juan Soto and Victor Robles.

No Washington Nationals hitter is more powerful than Anthony Rendon, although he didn't fare so well during the (23) at bats that he recorded against the Milwaukee Brewers, over the course of the regular season. During those (23) at bats, Rendon went 5-for-23 with (2) doubles, (1) home run, (5) RBI, (6) strikeouts, and a hit: .217/.250/.435. Of course, regular season statistics usually don't matter once the postseason rolls around so this could end up meaning absolutely nothing over the long haul of the postseason, should the Washington Nationals advance, but it's something to take into consideration. However, with a power hitter like Anthony Rendon, any opposing team has to be careful because it only takes one pitch for him to do damage and score runs, if there are runners already on base.

Beyond Anthony Rendon, the Washington Nationals have other power hitters in their lineup as well. One of those hitters is Juan Soto, who finished the season with (34) home runs and (110) RBI, over the course of 150 games and Brian Dozier, who finished the season with (20) home runs, (50) RBI, and a (.771) OPS, over the course of 135 games. For the Washington Nationals, a lot of their offensive power has come from the role players this season like the aforementioned Howie Kendrick and Brain Dozier along with outfielder, Adam Eaton, and first baseman, Matt Adams. It will be interesting to see how those role players are used in tomorrow night's game against the Milwaukee Brewers and what type of offensive substitutions will take place during the game. Depending on the pinch hitter and the situation at hand, one of those names could come through big time for the Nationals.

Beyond the power, another significant advantage that the Washington Nationals have comes on the base paths. The Nationals lineup features two different players (Trea Turner and Victor Robles) who both recorded more than (25) stolen bases this season and can swipe a bag or two when it matters the most. More specifically, Turner finished the season with (35) stolen bases, while Robles finished the year with (28). Furthermore, the aforementioned Adam Eaton finished the year with (15) and young outfielder, Juan Soto, combined for (12) over the span of 150 games. That's quite a bit of speed that could play against the Milwaukee Brewers in key situations and you know that Davey Martinez and his coaching staff will use that to their advantage.

Regardless of the end result, tomorrow night's game between the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers is going to be an exciting one and going to really help set the stage for a terrific postseason that lies ahead. In terms of who will win the game, look for the Washington Nationals to advance onto the National League Divisional Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and win by a score of 5-3. While it will be a shame for the Milwaukee Brewers to be done after one game, they would have a lot to be proud of based on clinching a postseason berth in the first place and the number of obstacles that they had to overcome during the course of the 2019 regular season.