The Million Dollar Question for the Pittsburgh Pirates

Here we are approaching yet another July 31st Trade Deadline and once again, it seems as though the Pittsburgh Pirates lay right in the middle where no team ever wants to be. That middle land where a team isn't quite good enough to contend, but not bad enough to end with one of the worst records and a high draft pick in next year's Amateur Draft either.

Every July 31st Trade Deadline seems to bring about that question for the Pirates and while they were certainly on a nice path to potentially win the National League Central from 2013 until 2015, the organization never took the necessary steps to make that big blockbuster trade or two to put the team over the hump. Rather, the team took more of a backseat approach and made small moves in hopes of bolstering their 25-man roster enough to the point where they could advance to those late rounds of the playoffs. After all, the postseason tends to be a crapshoot and no one quite knows how it's always going to play out.

However, last July 31st the Pittsburgh Pirates took a different direction for a change and sort of went all-in to acquire starting pitcher, Chris Archer, from the Tampa Bay Rays and reliever, Keone Kela, from the Texas Rangers. At the time, Kela was a phenomenal reliever and was one of the more under-the-radar names among those relievers available on the open market. On the other hand, the Chris Archer trade appeared to be one that could seriously bolster the Pirates starting rotation during the second portion of last season, as well as for this season, but that has absolutely not been the case to this point.

In fact, you could probably make the argument that the Pittsburgh Pirates potentially regret making that trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. After all, they ended up dealing away outfielder, Austin Meadows, who has become a star amid the Rays outfield along with starting pitcher, Tyler Glasnow, who started this season in serious consideration for the AL Cy Young Award before going down with an injury, and prospect Shane Baz. It certainly was unusual behavior by the Pittsburgh Pirates to participate in a trade of that magnitude because they have proven to be an organization that prefers to give in-house candidates a shot prior to turning to the outside for help and tend to be one of those small, homegrown teams.

However, the Pirates front office was drawn to Chris Archer because of the length of control he had at the time and the affordability factor. Archer is under control through at least the end of this season, but does have two team options for the next year along with the 2021 season. Furthermore, the payroll effect came into play as Archer was owed a little north of $3.2 million dollars after the trade last year and is making an affordable $7.6 million dollars this year. If both team options are exercised, which looks highly unlikely right now unless the Pirates get Archer back on track, the 2020 team option is worth $9 million dollars, while the team option for 2021 is valued at $11 million.

Although there is a big decision to be made regarding Chris Archer and his future with the Pittsburgh Pirates, that isn't the biggest or million dollar question that the Pirates have to answer in the foreseeable future. Rather, that question lies with Felipe Vazquez, their current closer and what direction they are going to go with him between now and July 31st. With the results that Vazquez has posted and the amount of affordability and team control he has under his name, there's bound to be plenty of interest from contending teams to try to acquire him.

So far this season, Vazquez has posted a 2.19 ERA over 37 innings of work with a (2.12) Fielding Independent Percentage and a (14.4) strikeouts-per-9 rate. Beyond that, the 28-year old left-hander has 19 saves over 20 save opportunities and opponents are batting (.224) against him when he takes the mound. As such, Vazquez has found tremendous success with getting opposing hitters to hit within the strike zone, which has translated to the highest strikeout percentage (68.2%) of his five-year big league career.

Expanding the sample size back to the start of the 2016 regular season, Felipe Vazquez ranks among the top 10% of qualified relievers in ERA (2.74), strikeouts-per-9 rate (11.38), WAR (6.4), and Fielding Independent Percentage (2.70). Essentially, that means that this season is not a one-year fluke for Vazquez or that he doesn't have an impressive track record for the Pittsburgh Pirates to use in negotiations to try and extract out a substantial package in return. As such, that's a significant reason why the Pirates inked Vazquez to a $22 million dollar, four-year extension in January of last year that includes $10 million dollar club options for the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

The affordability and control factors are two things that make Felipe Vazquez feel as though the ideal pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but the team is going to have to legitimately step back and evaluate what direction they want to go regarding him over the next 26 days. It would be very surprising to see the Pirates end up being buyers and do anything substantial because that is not in the pedigree of who they are as an organization overall (with the exception of last year), but a Felipe Vazquez trade certainly cannot be ruled out especially if the return comes at a high price and will improve the organization moving forward.

According to recent reports, the Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the teams that have been discussing Vazquez with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Dodgers would certainly have the prospects and big league depth to make a deal happen. As far as the chance of a Felipe Vazquez trade actually happens, that remains a mystery (their GM just downplayed the scenario a few days ago: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/pirates-trade-rumors-felipe-vazquez.html), but Vazquez is the one true trade chip on the Pirates 25-man roster that could fill a multitude of different needs that the team currently has.

As presently constructed, the Pittsburgh Pirates are likely far from being a postseason bound team and there are severe questions regarding their pitching staff. Outside of Felipe Vazquez, their bullpen remains rather shaky and both, the aforementioned Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove - two guys that looked like they could anchor down the starting rotation at the start of the season, have struggled over a majority of the season. For Archer it has seemingly been all season long, as previously discussed above, but for Joe Musgrove he ended the month of May with a (8.10 ERA over 30.0 IP), but rebounded last month posting a (3.51 ERA over 25.2 innings of work). Granted, the team heads into play today four games back of first place in the National League Central, but a lot of that has to do with the ups and downs of that division all the way to this point.

Therefore, if the Pittsburgh Pirates do decide to trade Felipe Vazquez and try to get multiple pieces back that can help improve their chances for the playoffs as soon as this year and for future years to come, they will likely focus on acquiring as much pitching in return as possible. Of the Pirates Top 10 prospects, only 3 of them are pitchers with the first being their first overall prospect, RHP Mitch Keller. Keller made his big league debut earlier this season and struggled putting up a 10.50 ERA over three starts, but has done a good job in Triple-A posting a 3.32 ERA over 76 innings of work. After Keller, comes the Pirates seventh ranked prospect, RHP Luis Escobar but many scouts project him to be a reliever moving forward, followed up by number ten prospect, RHP Steven Jennings. Jennings is projected to eventually be a mid-rotation starting pitcher, but is currently pitching in A Ball and isn't expected to reach the big leagues until 2021.

So taking all of that into consideration, the Pittsburgh Pirates would focus heavily on obtaining pitching help, especially in the starting rotation and a package that includes one or two left-handers to balance things out for both this year and into the future. However, as previously mentioned, it remains a distant possibility because the Pittsburgh Pirates could perceive themselves to be much better than the industry believes they are and might think that Felipe Vazquez is part of the next championship-caliber Pirates team.

That is certainly a fair argument, but the Pittsburgh Pirates should take a hard look at who they really are and realize that they still have a number of shortfalls amid their 25-man roster which will prevent them from legitimately having a chance to win a World Series. While every July 31st Trade Deadline tends to be quiet around the Steel City, with the exception of last years, this coming one should be one where the Pirates shock the industry and trade off Felipe Vazquez for multiple pieces in return. It's not like they would be hurting their brand of baseball anyways because Pittsburgh Pirates fans are very familiar with what it's like to constantly be in this cycle of never being good enough to win, but never being bad enough to end with one of the worst records in the National League and a top draft pick either.

One reason that business continues to get done that way is not because of an incompetent front office, but rather an ownership group headed by, Robert Nutting, that refuses to spend additional money to make the necessary upgrades to make the Pirates a true contender in the National League Central. It's something that has been going on for the past several years and is something that won't be going away anytime soon even if the Pirates answer the million dollar question and pull the trigger on a trade involving closer, Felipe Vazquez.