The Mariners Magical Mystery Tour of 2019
To date, the Seattle Mariners currently sit in first place amid the American League West, with an 11-2 record. During their last 10 games alone, the team has a 8-2 record, are amid a 4-game winning streak, and have an overall run differential of +40. Within all of those numbers, Seattle has scored 104 runs, have allowed 64 runs, and are 2-0 against teams currently above the .500 mark.
While this hot start might not only be a surprise, it might be something that isn't expected to carry on throughout the rest of the season. According Google's Expected Win-Loss Record methodology, factoring in the total runs scored versus runs allowed to this point, the Mariners would only have a 9-4 record. Compared to the other teams in the division, that would still put them in first place, but it shows that the Mariners might be somewhat outperforming themselves.
Regardless, this hot start is not something to turn your attention away from, but rather something to embrace and celebrate during a season in which many expected the Mariners to play badly and expected the team to be in full rebuild mode. As is always the case, baseball is a game played on grass, not paper, which means that many times those pre-season predictions end up becoming laughable at season's end, but that's the fun in it all. It sure would be something if the Seattle Mariners found a way to make it to the postseason during a year in which looked as though that was almost 99% impossible.
So, what exactly is contributing to the Mariners hot start or their Magical Mystery Tour to this point? Well, the simple answer to that question is quality hitting up and down the batting order, great overall pitching, and a team that has everything clicking at the right moment. When you combine all of those things together, you typically find the likes of a team that is performing at a high level, which very much explains the Mariners right now, as indicated above.
To start the discussion, let's dig into the pitching staff and explore some of the intriguing names that make it up. At the moment, the Mariners pitching staff currently ranks twelfth in baseball, seventh in the American League, with an overall team ERA of 3.78 over 119 innings of work. In that span, Seattle's pitching staff have recorded 50 earned runs, the seventh most amid the AL, are tied with the Boston Red Sox with the eighth most strikeouts (98), and come in ninth with an overall Opponent Batting Average Against of (.243).
Leading the way in the starting rotation has been Marco Gonzales, who has been off to, a very surprising start. So far this year, Gonzales has a 3.16 ERA over 25.2 IP with a 1.21 WHIP and 16 strikeouts. Outside of one start in March, Gonzales has a 1.88 ERA for the month of April with a .192 Opponent Batting Average Against. Here is a chart comparing Gonzales pitches from last season to this year:
If Marco Gonzales is able to continue throwing his split-fingered fastball, which he has thrown about 6.5% more often this year than last, and continues relying on his curveball less often, then he should continue to perform at a high level. What's ironic is that Gonzales has dipped in his velocity, almost 2 MPH on each of his pitches this season, compared to last year, and is still experiencing success. Granted, that could be because it's still early on in the season and he still hasn't reached peak-season form quite yet.
Another guy who deserves honorable mention in the pitching discussion for the Seattle Mariners thus far is left-hander, Roenis Elias. Elias was with Seattle last year, when he posted a 2.65 ERA over 51.0 IP, and has a 2.08 ERA over 8.2 IP so far this season. Thus far, the Mariners have used Elias in various spots from the fourth inning on and he has done very well against both left-handed and right-handed batters. Against lefties, Elias has an Opponent Batting Average Against (OBAA) of .143 over 2 innings with an OBAA against righties of .087 over 6.2 innings. Yes, it's still very early, but if Elias continues to throw strikes, he currently has the second highest strikeouts-per-9 rate on the Mariners pitching staff (9.3), and he continues his stellar BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) (.143), then Elias could prove to be very valuable to Seattle down the stretch.
Outside of Marco Gonzales and Roenis Elias, one other guy that deserves plenty of credit thus far is Brandon Brennan. In relief, Brennan has been lights out so far posting a 0.00 ERA over 8.2 innings of work. Within that span, Brennan has a 100% left on-base percentage with a .172 Opponent Batting Average Against and a 2.15 Fielding Independent Percentage (FIP). The 27-year old made his official MLB debut this season and so far the pitch mix he is using has been effective and he's done well getting hitters to swing at his pitches in the zone.
Here's a chart showcasing Brennan's plate discipline stats thus far:
As you can see in this chart, Brennan is getting opponents to swing at (34.5%) of his pitches outside of the zone. When it comes to swings inside the zone, Brennan has a (65.2) percentage. His number of pitches, on which contact was made outside of the zone sits at (50.0%), while his number of pitches in which contact was made inside the zone is (93.3%). Overall, thus far through those 8.2 innings of work, Brennan has a 67.7% first pitch strike rate. All stellar numbers and something that has contributed to Brennan's overall value so far.
Switching over to the offense now, the Seattle Mariners currently have a team batting line of: .294/.374/.568 over 470 at bats. In that span, Seattle has recorded the most runs in baseball (104), hit the most home runs in the league (33), put up the most RBI (103), recorded the third most walks (56), and put up the third highest on-base percentage (.374). In addition, Seattles (.568) slugging percentage is the highest among all 30 teams and a real illustration of the amount of power that has been observed up and down the entire batting order.
To this point, the three most productive hitters in the Mariners lineup consist of: Tim Beckham, Jay Bruce, and Domingo Santana. Currently, Beckham leads the team in batting average (.400) and on-base percentage (.489 over 40 at bats), while Bruce leads the team in home runs (7) and Santana leads the teams hitters in RBI and hits (19) in each of those two categories. To say that those three hitters were predicted to be so impactful at the start of the season, would be a silly statement and something that virtually no one could have saw coming.
To begin this portion of the discussion, let's dig into Domingo Santana and the success that he has experienced thus far. Remember, last season, Santana was one of the Milwaukee Brewers outfielders, but never had a set role because there wasn't room amid their crowded outfield with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the mix. Milwaukee tried to trade Santana at the trade deadline last July, but had no such luck which helped the Mariners to land him this past offseason. At 26 years old, Santana is only beginning to enter his peak and could continue to get even better moving forward.
One really interesting aspect of Santana's offensive game so far this year is his drastic splits between left-handers and right-handers. Granted, it is still a small sample size, but this could be something to watch down the stretch as the season moves forward. Against lefties in 8 at bats (yes, a very small number!), Santana is batting: .125/.222/.250 with 1 hit, 1 double, 0 home runs, 2 RBI, 1 walk, and 4 strikeouts. However, against righties, Santana really lights it up, as he is presently batting: .383/.463/.681, over the course of 47 at bats, with 18 hits, 2 doubles, 4 home runs, 17 RBI, 7 walks, and 11 strikeouts. Stark difference between the two, but who knows how these numbers could shift over the remaining 151 games of the season.
Another hitter that deserves praise in the Mariners lineup is Daniel Vogelbach. If you recall, Jerry Dipoto & Company acquired Vogelbach from the Chicago Cubs back in 2016, and at the moment, it looks like one of the best trades that has ever happened in the Seattle Mariners franchise history. Through 8 games or 22 at bats, Vogelbach is batting: .500/.621/1.364 with 11 hits, 4 doubles, 5 home runs, 9 RBI, 6 walks, and 7 strikeouts. During the past 7 games alone, Vogelbach is hitting: .600/.684/1.600 with 9 hits, 3 doubles, 4 home runs, 8 RBI, 4 walks, and 4 strikeouts.
For illustration, here is two different heat maps, courtesy of ESPN, showcasing Daniel Vogelbach's hot zones during the 2018 regular season compared to so far this year. Remember, the 2018 chart includes all 162-games, while the 2019 chart includes only 10 games(!), but it's still a good illustration for where Vogelbach exceeds at the plate.
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| 2018 Regular Season |
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| 2019 Regular Season |
Based on the data for this season, it's easy to say that Daniel Vogelbach is hitting virtually every pitch that he sees right now. That likely won't continue over the entire season, but it is a credit to the power and the high-ceiling that Vogelbach possesses when it comes to his offensive abilities at the plate. Both of these charts help to show some of those abilities and give the opposing team's pitcher an idea of where to try and get Vogelbach to swing at for a strikeout.
To say that the Seattle Mariners have been a surprise through 10 games of the regular season, would be an accurate statement and an accurate depiction of a team that went into the season, saying they were going to take a step back from being competitive and set their eyes towards the future. Whether or not this success continues over the remaining 151 games of the season or results in a potential postseason berth, remains to be seen, but whatever you say, it's something that deserves a lot more national attention than it's currently getting.
The song "Magical Mystery Tour" was produced by The Beatles nearly 53 years ago, but the Seattle Mariners have officially created their own "Magical Mystery Tour" and it could be coming to a city near you very soon!
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