Making a Case for Why the 2018 Yankees Won't Break New Records Like Some Think

This morning, while in the car to the grocery store, I was listening to MLB Network Radio when a listener called in. The listener, Al from New York, boldly exclaimed that the Yankees will, "End up winning 120 games and break [the previous home run record] with 300 home runs." As the listener exclaimed, after all, they have "Stanton, Judge, Sanchez, and Gregorious." The hosts boldly screamed out, "Wow" and disbelief followed by both hosts as they contemplated whether or not the listener is right, but after a few moments one of the hosts exclaimed, "That's not happening." Here's the thing, the 2018 Yankees will be good, but they won't be as good as many think and certainly won't break the record for wins (116) set by the 2001 Seattle Mariners or the home run record set by the 1997 Seattle Mariners (264).

Yes, they possess three very good hitters, all of whom have power in Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton, but we have to remember who were talking about and the factors that go into the overall equation. Sanchez, will be going into his third season at the major league level, and recorded 120 strikeouts over the span of 471 at bats last season. Judge, whose heading into his second big league season, could face the inevitable "sophomore slump" as the league begins to adjust to him and not be as much of a phenomenon as he was last year. Finally, Giancarlo Stanton, reigning NL MVP winner who led the league with 59 home runs last year, may end up caving to the pressure of playing in a big market like New York and not provide the type of pop like he did last season.

Giancarlo Stanton 

After all, when Stanton had a bad game last season, he would end up leaving the locker room before the media could find him. That type of behavior just won't fly in a market like New York where everything a player does is magnified at a higher level and criticized by even the littlest fan. Furthermore, Aaron Judge may succumb to the pressure himself and feel as though he has to outplay his stat line from last year which could end up turning into a disastrous season for him also. Not to mention that all three sluggers could ultimately face an injury or two as rarely does any MLB player get through an entire season fully healthy.

Among the three, the track record that should be the most reliable is Giancarlo Stanton because he is a proven talent at the MLB level and has had success dating back to when he made his debut in 2010. You know every season, you are going to get a productive batting line and numbers that make him one of the most impactful hitters on your team. With Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, their track records are so limited, that it's hard to try to predict how they will perform. Sanchez is still trying to prove that he is capable of being an everyday catcher behind the plate, while the rest of the industry believes he will be a first baseman in a few seasons. Additionally, Aaron Judge was a rookie last season and things could still go either way for him. Judge performed at a fairly high level in the minor leagues, but will that continue at the big league level with how advanced the pitching is? The answer to that has yet to be seen.

Beyond those reasons, another reason why the 2018 Yankees will be good, but won't exceed any records is because of the makeup of the baseball during the 2017 season. Sure, we could continue to see an increase in the amount of home runs league wide, but many believe that the ball last year was juiced which could have evidently helped Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez in some respect. If the ball is juiced, of course it's going to be easier to hit it out over the fence especially if a pitcher doesn't have the right location on each pitch.

Brian Cashman 

In addition to all of this, let's take an entire team perspective and look at how the roster is currently constructed. Don't get me wrong, Brian Cashman general manager of the New York Yankees, has done a phenomenal job of guiding the Yankees during their slight rebuild and restocking the farm with bright, youthful prospects, but that doesn't mean that he has the perfect roster on paper. There's still questions surrounding the entire rotation about whether or not CC Sabathia can stay healthy, whether Masahiro Tanka will have more elbow problems, or if Luis Severino can repeat the substantial success that he experienced last season.

Add to that the questions surrounding the middle infield for New York as well. Yesterday, the team signed, Danny Espinosa, to a minor-league deal and announced that he would compete for the second base job, which currently is slated to go to Ronald Torreyes. Over at third base, Miguel Andujar, is currently slated to get the job, but both Torreyes and Andujar are unproven over a full season at the big league level. However, as is the case with Brian Cashman, there will likely be a move made to solidify this area of the roster prior to Opening Day, but that doesn't mean that making that move does involve payroll complications. In order to make a substantial move, the Yankees would need to trade someone, like David Robertson or find a team to take on a majority of the remaining salary for Jacoby Ellsbury, both of which have provided unlikely to happen to this point.

Sure, at the end of the day, the Yankees are a talented bunch and will likely make the postseason assuming they stay healthy the entire year this coming season, but don't expect to blow us all away by beating the record set by the 2001 Seattle Mariners for wins or the 1997 Seattle Mariners for the most home runs ever hit by a team in a single season. Times have changed quite a bit since those seasons and the game has become more analytical than ever adding to the fact that teams are smarter, pitchers know exactly where to throw a baseball to strike out a hitter, and that environmental factors have changed, which influences the game, a lot as well.

Of course, this entire assessment could prove to be entirely wrong in assuming that Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton will all struggle at various points this coming season, but if I were a betting person, I would imagine that many of the predictions others have about that trio of players won't come true this season and they will ultimately be left questioning what caused the trio to not reach the levels they were expected to.